Texas Tech football hosts Cincinnati: Scouting report, predictions for Big 12 game

Posted by Admin September 27, 2024 Football

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The Texas Tech football team will look to close its three-game homestand the same it began: with a win.

For the second week in a row, the Red Raiders welcome a seemingly rejuvenated team looking to shed last year’s disastrous campaign. The Cincinnati Bearcats enter Saturday night’s game in Jones AT&T Stadium (7 p.m., ESPN2) with the same 3-1 overall mark and 1-0 record in Big 12 Conference play. It’ll also be a meeting of top-tier running backs with Tahj Brooks leading Texas Tech and Corey Kiner heading the Cincinnati attack.

Some fans like to compare who teams have played, so here’s a short note on that.

Texas Tech and Cincinnati both lost to teams that are currently 4-0 (Washington State and Pittsburgh, respectively). Meanwhile, the Red Raiders’ wins have come against teams with a combined 8-4 record while the Bearcats’ victories are against teams that were 2-9 through Week 4 of the college football season.

As for the rest of the game details, here’s a look at each facet.

When Texas Tech football runs the ball

Tahj Brooks missed one game and hasn’t missed a step, eclipsing the 100-yard rushing threshold in each of the three games he’s appeared in. Cameron Dickey also put on a highlight-worthy run in his first game as the No. 2 back behind Brooks, the freshman proving more than capable of spelling the super senior when needed. Cincinnati features a disruptor in the middle of the defensive line in Dontay Corleone, who’s still working his way back into form after dealing with blood clots before the season. On the year, the Bearcats are giving up 138 yards per game on the ground.

Advantage: Texas Tech

More: Texas Tech football’s Mason Tharp shows leadership qualities for loaded tight end room

When Cincinnati football runs the ball

Expect a lot of running from Cincinnati, which is handing the ball off on 67% of its offensive plays. Corey Kiner is similarly built to Arizona State’s Cam Skattebo. Kiner stands at 5-foot-9 and 210 pounds and has been a load to take down. Sitting at 404 yards on 64 carries already this season, Kiner averages 5.5 yards per carry after contact, so it’ll take more than one effort to bring him down. To give teams another look, Cincinnati also sprinkles in former Ohio State Buckeye Evan Pryor, who averages 12.3 yards per carry. Led by linebackers Ben Roberts and Jacob Rodriguez (28 tackles apiece), the Red Raiders have only allowed 3.6 yards per carry to running backs. Skattebo only managed 3.3 yards per tote.

Advantage: Cincinnati

More: How Texas Tech football prepped for a 92-year schedule oddity

When Texas Tech football passes

Texas Tech switched things up against Arizona State, first attacking through the air, which forced the Sun Devils to invite the Red Raiders to hand the ball off. Look for a similar approach here with Behren Morton getting some early work in to this receivers. Josh Kelly (376 yards), Coy Eakin (229) and Johncarlos Miller II each have three receiving touchdowns on the season already. Defending the pass has not been a strength for the Bearcats. Opponents averaged around 300 yards per game through the air in the first three weeks before Cincinnati demolished former Red Raider Donovan Smith and the Houston Cougars last week. Even Miami (Ohio) put up 356 pass yards on the Bearcats. Josh Minkins has two of Cincinnati’s three interceptions this season and the Bearcats have nine sacks on the year, three from Eric Phillips.

Advantage: Texas Tech

When Cincinnati football passes

The Bearcats don’t take to the air all that often. But when they do, Brendan Sorsby has been very efficient. The former Indiana quarterback has completed 65% of his passes, totaling 1,055 yards and eight touchdowns without an interception to his name thus far. Xzavier Henderson (25 catches, 326 yards) and Joe Royer (14 catches, 206 yards) have been his top targets with Tech coaches gushing over both earlier this week, McGuire calling Royer a “total tight end” for his abilities. The Red Raider secondary still isn’t perfect, but they have improved from their Week 1 calamity, coming up with four interceptions over the last three games.

Advantage: Cincinnati

Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati: The specialists

Neither Gino Garcia or Reece Burkhardt has missed a field goal, so it’s possible Texas Tech alternates between those two all year. Jack Burgess is averaging 43.5 yards per punt. Cincinnati’s Nathan Hawkins is 4 for 4 on field goals in his last two games, hitting a pair of 50-plus yarders against Miami (Ohio). Mason Fletcher, the preseason all-Big 12 punter, is averaging 46.8 yards per attempt, including six going over 50 yards.

Advantage: Cincinnati

Score prediction: Texas Tech 34, Cincinnati 27

Bottom line: The Bearcats might have the advantage in three of the five categories, but the margins are very slim in those victories while Tech has a decisive advantage in theirs. Call it home field advantage if you must.