It’s easy to look at this Saturday afternoon matchup and pencil Kansas City into the AFC conference championship, where they will face the winner of Ravens-Bills.

The Houston Texans’ offense has been a shell of itself due to injuries and their offensive line has mostly been terrible, posting the fifth-worst yards per carry average (3.8) from Weeks 10-18.

However, it’s their defensive line’s matchup with the Chiefs’ offensive line that could be the one to watch.

Houston’s defensive line is by far the top best in the NFL, ranking first in pass rush win rate and second in run stop win rate, while the Chiefs’ offensive line has struggled a bit throughout the season.

Texans vs. Chiefs odds

Texans vs. Chiefs prediction

(4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Coming in as +350 underdogs Saturday, the Texans are expected to roll over while their defense hangs on as long as they can.

The Chiefs beat the Texans, 27-19, in Week 16, although that score is deceiving since the Chiefs kneeled in the red zone to end the game.

Texans receiver Tank Dell played in that game and, of course, he is out for the season after suffering a horrific knee injury that week.

Last week against the Chargers, Houston played the best defensive game of the season by any team, ranking No. 1 in FTN’s Defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA).

In order for the Texans to be legitimate contenders in this game, C.J. Stroud needs to grow up before our eyes and launch himself into elite quarterback status.

Patrick Mahomes has only lost to Tom Brady and Joe Burrow in his NFL playoff career.

I think that the Texans flirt with victory here, and I worry about Mahomes’ health in projected very cold conditions (highs 20s in Kansas City).

The Texans’ defensive line is among the best we’ve seen in some time, so expect him to be hit a lot.

Betting on the NFL?

I have the Texans as four-point underdogs in this game, even while acknowledging that the Chiefs are healthier now than they have been all season.

Cornerback Jaylen Watson is expected to play and receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown look ripe to get plenty of reps Saturday.

There’s some value on the Texans moneyline if you believe in randomness coming at some point for the Chiefs.

Lets not forget that the Patriots lost to the Jets in the 2010 playoffs behind a ravenous Rex Ryan defense and game management from Mark Sanchez.

PICK: Texans +8.5 (-110, Fanatics) | Texans moneyline (+380, ESPN BET)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.