Acapulco, Dubai, Merida tennis best bets for February 26th

Between the ATP and WTA Tours, we’ll have five tournaments to watch this week. I’m going to continue churning out tennis best bets from Sunday to Thursday (until some of the bigger tournaments arrive, my plays for most semifinals and finals will be on the picks page), so come back to the website for writeups on the 500-level events — like Acapulco, Dubai and Merida. The fields for Acapulco and Dubai are especially interesting, so I’ll pay closer attention to those two. Also, make sure you’re checking out the picks page for all of my action for smaller tournaments and Challengers.

We’re entering the most exciting portion of the tennis calendar, as there are several 1000-level events in the coming weeks. Those then flow into the majors, so everything heats up pretty quickly. We’ll be covering all of them, whether that’s with my columns or Gill Alexander’s excellent work on A Numbers Game. That said, if you like tennis, now is the time to consider a VSiN Pro subscription!

With all of that in mind, check out my Acapulco, Dubai and Merida best bets for Wednesday, February 26th.

MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!

Marin Cilic vs. Alexei Popyrin – Dubai

Cilic’s win over Alex de Minaur on Tuesday was surprising. There’s no denying that. De Minaur was as high as a -1250 favorite before that match. However, Cilic has shown us that he’s not completely cooked yet. The 36-year-old has had some brutal injury luck late in his career, so he hasn’t been able to find much consistency at the ATP level. But Cilic did win a title in Hangzhou last year, beating Yoshihito Nishioka, Brandon Nakashima and Zhizhen Zhang in the process. Cilic also played Carlos Alcaraz extremely close in Doha last week, falling 6-4, 6-4 in a tight straight-set loss against the Spaniard. When he’s clicking, Cilic still has a booming first serve and a big forehand. Well, that makes him somewhat similar to his opponent in this one, and Popyrin has been in miserable form lately.

Since the start of the 2025 season, Popyrin is just 1-4 in five ATP-level matches. The Australian’s only win came over Hady Habib last match, and Popyrin also suffered a straight-set loss to Matteo Arnaldi in Brisbane. That’s a bad look in his home country. And losing to Corentin Moutet on a fast hard court at the Australian Open is also a tough one.

Until Popyrin proves that he’s back to playing at the same level we saw in 2024, he might be a good player to fade. Of course, in a meeting between two big servers, we could see some stressful sets. But I’m taking a shot on Cilic to come through in the big moments.

Bet: Cilic ML (+125)

Karen Khachanov vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas – Dubai
Marcos Giron vs. Tommy Paul – Acapulco

Khachanov-Tsitsipas is a fascinating matchup in Dubai. These are two players that have been wildly inconsistent over the last few years. So, it’s hard to trust either of them to find their best level. However, I do feel pretty good about Tsitsipas winning at least a set. For as bad as Tsitsipas looked in Doha last week, he came out and played a great match against Lorenzo Sonego in the opening round here. He constantly put pressure on Sonego’s serve, which was surprising to see considering how poorly the Greek has returned lately. Then, when it was Tsitsipas’ time to serve, he was pretty good about hitting his spots and setting up plus-one forehands. All of that makes it pretty easy to imagine Tsitsipas at least forcing tiebreakers in this match, and I trust him to win one if he does. And I generally do think he’ll find a way to win the match. It seems like he’s motivated and feeling good about his game, which might have something to do with him changing his racquet.

In order to get reasonable odds on Tsitsipas to win a set, I’m parlaying it with Paul to beat Giron in Acapulco. I’ll be honest, Giron is a scary player on slower hard courts, but I’m just struggling to come up with things he does better than Paul right now. Paul is a better server and returner, and he also has a more dangerous baseline game. It’s also just impossible to get the ball by Paul in slow conditions. Also, any concerns about how Paul would perform after looking a little banged up in Dallas were alleviated in last night’s 6-2, 6-2 dismantling of an in-form Gabriel Diallo.

PARLAY: Tsitsipas +1.5 Sets & Paul ML (-133 – 1.5 units)

Maya Joint vs. Donna Vekic – Merida

Vekic is just 3-6 since the start of the 2025 season, and her last two losses have been somewhat concerning. The Croatian failed to win a set against both Linda Noskova and Sofia Kenin, and those two losses came after a 7-6 (0), 6-0 loss to Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova at the Australian Open. Vekic just hasn’t looked healthy or confident since the start of the new season, and it’s alarming considering her injury struggles in the past. Well, Vekic has a pretty tough matchup with Joint in Merida on Wednesday, so I’m putting a fade on the Croatian.

Joint is coming off a 6-3, 6-2 win over Julia Grabher, and she also won both of her qualifying matches in straight sets. She has just looked dominant since getting to this event, and she’s going to be more comfortable than Vekic in these conditions.

Joint is also going to be a tough opponent for a player that is shaky right now, as she’s aggressive and really plays with her front foot forward. Joint is going to be looking to hit winners and push Vekic around, and I don’t see the Croatian enjoying that type of showdown.

Bet: Joint ML (+120)

David Goffin vs. Ben Shelton – Acapulco

I wouldn’t give Goffin much of a shot against Shelton on a quicker surface, but I think he has the ability to keep this close on a gritty court. Shelton is simply a different player when his serve is neutralized, and the courts in Acapulco definitely take some speed off the southpaw’s biggest weapon. Meanwhile, Goffin is a complete player along the baseline, is smart about constructing points and knows when to come to the net to put things away. So, he might be way less talented than Shelton, but he should be able to give him some trouble by just playing a smart match and staying solid.

Goffin also looked as good as anyone in his opening-round match, as he pummeled Rinky Hijikata in one of the better performances I’ve seen since the start of 2025. If he carries over any of that shot-making ability, he should be able to get on the board — and could even win this thing outright.

Bet: Goffin +1.5 Sets (-120)

Additional Plays

I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success in the past. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day. My 250-level and Challenger-level action will live exclusively on the Pro Picks page.

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