There will be several Kentucky Derby hopefuls in the mix down in Florida on Saturday at the 2025 Tampa Bay Derby. This prep race for the Run for the Roses will award qualifying points on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale, which will get the top finishers even closer to racing at Churchill Downs in May. Post time for Saturday’s 1 1/16-mile race at Tampa Bay Downs is 5:34 p.m. ET. Chancer McPatrick is the 8-5 favorite in the 2025 Tampa Bay Derby odds, followed by Patch Adams (2-1), Hill Road (4-1) and Owen Almighty (5-1) in the seven-horse 2025 Tampa Bay Derby field. With several talented three-year-olds set to enter the starting gate on Saturday, you’ll want to see what SportsLine writer Gene Menez has to say before making any 2025 Tampa Bay Derby picks or horse racing predictions.

A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI’s handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010.

In 2015, while writing for Sports on Earth, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta (American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted), which paid $1,268.20 for $2. Then in 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.

In May of last year, Menez gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby. Last November, he crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday for a $5,303 score.

For Saturday, Menez has handicapped the 2025 Tampa Bay Derby field, made his picks and constructed his best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2025 Tampa Bay Derby predictions

One surprise: Menez is fading Chancer McPatrick, even though he is the betting favorite at 8-5. This son of McKinzie has three wins in four career starts. However, he hasn’t raced since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November, where he placed sixth.

Menez notes that the three-year-old has notched all of his wins on one-turn races, and wonders if he is simply “a one-turn horse.”

“Also, Chancer McPatrick got a late start to his 2025 campaign because of an injury, and trainer Chad Brown told the Daily Racing Form that he thinks the horse is just ’80 percent ready’ for the Tampa Bay Derby,” Menez told SportsLine. You can see all of Menez’s 2025 Fountain of Youth Stakes bets here.

How to make 2025 Tampa Bay Derby picks

Instead, Menez’s top pick is a horse who is “drawn perfectly.” He also is high on a double-digit longshot who hasn’t raced since 2024, but “has been training steadily for his return.” Menez is including these horses in his 2025 Tampa Bay Derby bets, and so should you. He’s sharing what horses to back at SportsLine.

So what horse wins the Tampa Bay Derby 2025? And how has Menez constructed his wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Menez’s picks for the Tampa Bay Derby, all from the expert who gave out 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot in the Kentucky Derby and crushed the late Pick 4 on Breeders’ Cup Saturday for $5,303, and find out. 

2025 Tampa Bay Derby odds, contenders, post positions