Favorites went 13-3 in Week 1, the highest winning percentage since 2009, but that’s no solace to Cincinnati Bengals backers. The Bengals’ home loss to the Patriots knocked out 30% of ESPN Eliminator Challenge entrants. It was the biggest Week 1 upset since 2018.

Week 2 has a similar setup to Week 1 in that there is one obvious pick based on the betting odds that will be a very popular selection. The Baltimore Ravens are the biggest favorites but are going to be the most-picked team this week … by far.

The Los Angeles Chargers appear to be the second-most popular pick this week, and ESPN Analytics has them as the second-biggest favorites. However, they are being selected by 18% of participants so far this week, which is a lot of chalk to eat on a road favorite, especially one that is still an underdog to make the playoffs.

After those two teams, ownership is widely dispersed without a clear choice. There are cases to be made for the Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Pittsburgh Steelers, Washington Commanders, Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks. Eight teams are favored between 3.5 and 7 points, and one of them will be the top pick in Week 2.

Click here to download Mike Clay’s Eliminator Cheat Sheet, updated weekly. Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET

Top picks

1. Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Lions have the second-shortest money line this week at ESPN BET and are set up well against the Buccaneers. Baker Mayfield is just 1-16 outright in his career as at least a six-point underdog, including 0-4 with the Bucs. Tampa Bay’s defense suffered several injuries last week, which could be part of the reason this betting line has moved away from them.

The Lions have several more usable weeks, but there isn’t a single week remaining where there aren’t other similarly strong options. With a mere 2% of early Eliminator Challenge entrants picking the Lions, Detroit offers a great combination of leverage and win probability.

• ESPN Analytics: Lions, 65% chance to win (by 6.0)

• ESPN BET line: Lions -7 (-340 money line)

• Eliminator Challenge: 2% selected

2. Baltimore Ravens vs Las Vegas Raiders

The Ravens are the biggest favorites this week according to both models from Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics, and they are the biggest favorites of the week in the betting market. They are the obvious pick this week, but there are two caveats. First, they are the heavy chalk. Second, the Ravens will also be the biggest favorite in two of the next seven weeks where they will likely be less popular.

With Baltimore being the heavy chalk this week and holding a ton of future value, I would wait for later in the season to burn Baltimore. However, if all you are concerned about is winning this week and worrying about the future later, it’s hard to pass on the Ravens.

• ESPN Analytics: Ravens, 72% chance to win (by 9.0)

• ESPN BET line: Ravens -9.5 (-500 money line)

• Eliminator Challenge: 35% selected

3. Houston Texans vs Chicago Bears

The Texans get the nod over the Chargers as the third option. The teams have similar projected chances to win, but the Texans are being selected significantly less often this week. The Bears won last week in extremely ugly fashion, becoming the first team in NFL history to win a game in which they trailed by 17 points and had less than 150 yards.

Now Caleb Williams heads on the road for the first time in his NFL career against a significantly better team in the Texans. The Bears are 3-14 on the road under Matt Eberflus, and with an unproven rookie quarterback, it’s unlikely that mark improves this week.

• ESPN Analytics: Texans, 66% chance to win (by 5.9)

• ESPN BET line: Texans -7 (-320 money line)

• Eliminator Challenge: 5% selected

Others to consider