The Atlanta Hawks have not played since last Thursday when they lost by eight to the Phoenix Suns, and they find themselves as home underdogs against Phoenix in the final meeting of the regular season between these two squads.
Phoenix is back to .500 on the season, and it’s gone through a major rotation change as of late, moving star Bradley Beal to the bench.
The Suns took the first meeting between these teams by eight points, but they won’t have big man Jusuf Nurkic (illness) active for tonight’s contest.
Atlanta also has some injury concerns on Tuesday, as Trae Young and Bogdan Bogdanovic are questionable while Larry Nance Jr. and Jalen Johnson have already been ruled out.
Can the Hawks – the current No. 9 seed in the East – keep things close against a Suns team that has struggled against the spread all season long?
Here’s a full breakdown of the odds, players to bet in the prop market, and my prediction for Tuesday’s contest.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Suns guard Devin Booker has been on fire as a playmaker, and I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why he’s worth a wager tonight:
With the Phoenix Suns moving Bradley Beal to the bench, Devin Booker is thriving, especially as a playmaker.
Booker is averaging 8.9 assists per game over his last seven contests after he missed five games in a row with an injury. He now takes on an Atlanta Hawks team that is just 28th in the NBA in opponent assists per game this season.
Earlier this month, Booker had 12 assists in 40 minutes in a win over Atlanta. He’s picked up at least eight dimes in six of his last seven games, averaging 12.8 potential assists per game over that stretch.
He’s a great bet against a Hawks team that loves to push the pace (No. 3 in the NBA) tonight.
This season, De’Andre Hunter is shooting an impressive 43.3 percent from beyond the arc, and he’s hit at least three shots from beyond the arc in 12 of his last 15 games – despite taking just 6.7 3s per game.
Phoenix ranks just 19th in opponent 3-pointers made per game this season, and Hunter shot 2-for-7 from beyond the arc against them last week. I expect him to have a big game from deep with Jalen Johnson out tonight.
These teams combined for 238 points when they met last week, and I think we could be in line for another high-scoring affair on Tuesday night.
Atlanta is the best OVER team in the NBA (25-13) this season, and the Suns have hit the OVER in 10 of their 17 road games.
The Hawks are third in the NBA in pace, leading to plenty of possessions on both sides, and they’ve given up the third-most points per game in the NBA. Phoenix hasn’t been much better, ranking 19th this season in opponent points per game and 22nd in defensive rating.
Now, if Young gets ruled out for Atlanta, that certainly alters the team’s offensive ceiling. However, if he plays, it’s hard not to see these two teams pushing 240 points once again given all of the offensive talent on Phoenix’s roster.
Pick: OVER 235 (-112)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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