Central banks, politics and banking marriages were the focus of attention in European financial markets today, with investors reluctant to take a position before the fog clears, especially on what the Federal Reserve Wednesday, whether it will cut rates by 50 or 25 basis points. At the moment the second hypothesis seems to prevail.

While waiting the dollar retreats and theeuro strengthens, while oil races and gold moves just short of new highs.

So the continental stock markets closed little changed: Milano it’s completely flat, even if Unipol (+ 6,37%) and Saipem (+4,94%) put on a show. Frankfurt loses 0,23%, Paris -0,21% Amsterdam -0,43% Madrid + 0,39% London + 0,07%. 

Among the various sectors, it should be noted that European banking stocks seem to be cats lying in wait in the challenge for the German Commerzbank (-0,48%): the Italian Unicredit (+0,53%), could find competition from the Teutonic Deutsche Bank (-0,36%) and the Berlin government – ​​which still holds a 12% stake in Commerz – is evaluating what to do. At the window there would also be the French of BNP Paribas (-0,38%).

Moving on to New York: Wall Street it is contrasted at the end of the morning (Nasdaq -0,7%), but the DJ even touched a new record at 41.733 points for a few moments, despite the burden of Apple (-3%).

Political earthquakes on both sides of the Atlantic 

In the political sphere, two weighty events have taken place on both sides of the Atlantic, although it is not known to what extent these events will move the balance of the markets. In the EU, it has given resignation from the European Commission Thierry Breton, French Commissioner for the Internal Market, in open polemic with the President Ursula von der Leyen. In the US a man (already arrested) shot on a golf course where he was playing Donald Trump, rekindling strong fears for the ongoing election campaign.

Many central banks at work, but the beacon is the Federal Reserve

Le central banks There are so many at work this week, from Brazil to Great Britain, from Japan to South Africa, but the world beacon that everyone is looking at is the Federal Reserve which should reverse course on tightening after 30 months of tighter belts. Currently, rates are at 5,25%-5,50% and according to Fed Watch, the most likely hypothesis (43,8%) is that, at the end of the year, rates will be at 4-4,25%, for a cut, therefore, of 125 basis points compared to today. Whether the Fed will announce a cut of 25 or 50 basis points on Wednesday, however, is difficult to say. The odds today are in favor of the larger move, but changes in mood remain lurking.

The dollar retreats in the face of a Fed seen as a dove.euro strengthens by 0,45%, for a change of 1,1125. The pound and the yen are also showing their muscles against the greenback, with their respective central banks seen on stand-by at the meeting in the next few days.

Among the raw materials the Petroleum strengthens, with Brent and WTI futures up around 1,5%, while gold is trading around $2580 an ounce, not far from recent records.

Piazza Affari, Unipol and Saipem soar

Piazza Affari is practically colorless, but there is no shortage of blue chips that are closing a very lively day. Unipol stands out among them all, on speculations about the role that the Bologna-based company could play in the Italian banking Risk. The financial sector was then animated by Generali (+3,22%) – promoted by Jefferies – and by its subsidiary General Bank (-0,05%), which launched a totalitarian takeover bid on Intermonte ordinary shares (+19,68%) for a price of 3,04 euros per share.

In the oil sector the strongest blue chip is Saipem, awarded for the news of a $4 billion offshore EPC contract in Qatar.

Utilities are making good progress, from Italgas +1,05% to Ivy +1,07%. Well Team + 1,3%.

The biggest drop of the day is for stm, -3,36%, following Apple’s losses after several analysts, including those from Bank of America and JP Morgan, inferred from delivery times that there could be weak demand for the new iPhone 16 Pro. They retreat Ferrari -2,02% Campari -2,56% Amplifon -1,41%.

Spreads down

Good session for BTPs on the secondary market: the Italian ten-year bond sees a spread contracting 132 basis points against its German rival of similar duration.

Il yield of the BTP is indicated at 3,4%, that of the Bund at 2,09%.