Two teams that have been linked for a few years thanks to the original Dejounte Murray trade — the San Antonio Spurs and Atlanta Hawks — face off on Wednesday night in Atlanta.
The Spurs made a major deal earlier this week, adding All-Star guard De’Aaron Fox, and he’s expected to make his debut tonight with the team listing him as “available” on its latest injury report.
The Spurs have won just three of their last seven games, and they need to make a major run to just get into the play-in tournament field in a loaded Western Conference.
Meanwhile, the Hawks snapped their eight-game losing streak on Monday with a win over the Detroit Pistons.
Can the Hawks keep winning to improve the play-in spot in the East? It’s going to be tough without Jalen Johnson for the rest of the campaign due to a shoulder injury.
Here’s a breakdown of the latest odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Wednesday’s contest.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
The Hawks have really struggled to defend the 3-ball this season, ranking 28th in the NBA in opponent 3-pointers made per game and 26th in opponent 3-point percentage.
That sets up nicely for Victor Wembanyama, who is averaging 3.2 made 3s on 9.0 3-point attempts per game (35.8 percent) in his second NBA season.
The volume will be there for Wemby on every night, and he’s made at least three shots from deep in eight of 13 games since the start of the New Year despite his attempts per game dipping to 8.2. I love him at this number against Atlanta.
The market has moved too far for my liking in this prop for Hawks big man Onyeka Okongwu. While Clint Capela is out on Wednesday night, Okongwu’s rebound props is now in the double digits – even though he’s only hit the over twice in the five games that Capela has missed this season.
Okongwu also hasn’t played more than 30:23 in a single game that he’s started this season – limiting his ceiling in this market. With the big man likely having to step out to guard Wemby on the perimeter at times, I think he falls short of this rebound total.
I’m buying the Spurs in De’Aaron Fox’s debut – even if it takes the team some time to adjust with the star guard in the lineup.
Atlanta has struggled mightily as of late, losing eight of its last 10 games, and it also is just 5-9 when Johnson sits this season. That’s a bad sign for the Hawks going forward with the youngster now out for the rest of the 2024-25 campaign.
Atlanta has done well as a home underdog (6-3 against the spread), but the Spurs are a solid 3-2 against the spread when favored on the road.
The addition of Fox really raises San Antonio’s ceiling offensively, and Atlanta’s defense – 28th in opponent points per game – has left a lot to be desired this season.
With the Hawks down multiple role players, I’m not sold on them in this game – even though they knocked off Detroit earlier this week.
Pick: Spurs -4.5 (-112 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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