Carlos Alcaraz and Karen Khachanov will be going head-to-head for the fourth time in their careers when they clash in the quarterfinals of the China Open on Monday.

Unsurprisingly, Alcaraz has won all three of their previous encounters–and it hasn’t been close. The third-ranked Spaniard rolled 6-1, 6-4, 6-4 at the 2022 French Open, 6-0, 6-2 a few weeks later in Hamburg, and 6-4, 7-5 at the 2023 Madrid Masters. This is a horrible matchup for Khachanov–as it is for many players–because his defensive skills are poor and he obviously has to play a lot of defense against Alcaraz.

There is no reason to think that anything will be different in Beijing, as Alcaraz looks to be extremely motivated during a time of year when a lot of guys are losing focus. The 21-year-old clinched the Laver Cup for Team Europe and so far this week has destroyed both Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Tallon Griekspoor.

Khachanov also hasn’t dropped a set, although he has benefited from a favorable draw with Roberto Carballes Baena and Francisco Cerundolo on the other side of the net. The 27th-ranked Russian beat Cerundolo in a break-fest (three for each player) 7-6(4), 7-6(9) on Sunday.

Alcaraz should not need much more than an hour to earn his spot in the semifinals of this ATP 500 event.

Pick: Alcaraz in 2