Schein 9 NFL Week 13:

Football. Family. Food. I love Thanksgiving. There’s nothing better. I’m thankful for all of our readers at VSIN.com. And I’m thankful we can move to Week 13 after our brutal Week 12 picks!

Here are our midweek musings, picks, predictions and takes, Schein 9 style

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1. Lions Roar

I love that the Lions play on Thanksgiving every year and that the tradition continues because the NFL didn’t overreact to the Lions being dreadful for so long. Thanksgiving football in Detroit is special and meaningful. And this is an important backdrop to the Lions and Bears on Thursday afternoon. Remember, the Lions got embarrassed last Thanksgiving Day by the Packers. The Lions have lost seven straight Thanksgiving games! Trust me, that matters. I am on record saying I won’t pick against the Lions the rest of the year to win games. My goal is not to bet against Detroit the rest of the season. 

Caleb Williams is a stud, but the Bears ruined his rookie year with inept coaching. Against the Vikings last week, chalk up another one-score loss for Matt Eberflus, who needs to be fired. That’s now five losses in a row for Chicago. The Bears canned overmatched offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and Caleb is back to the USC version under new play caller Thomas Brown. It’s refreshing. But the Lions are a machine at 10-1 that can win any style of fight. Related, the Eagles are just a game behind for the coveted only bye, No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the NFC.

Winning matters. Perception matters. Humbling a division foe after last Thanksgiving matters. The Lions own a monster talent and coaching advantage in this one. The line movement has already shifted from 10.5 to 10. Fantastic. Detroit rocks the Bears by a couple of touchdowns, revenge for ghosts of Thanksgivings past. Oh, and the Lions are 9-2 against the spread this year.

2. Tua Time?

Miami is suddenly hot, having won three straight games. Sadly for the Dolphins, the temperature on Thanksgiving night at Lambeau Field is cold and so is their record in these conditions. Miami has an 11-game losing streak when the kickoff temperature is under 40 degrees. It’s supposed to be 17 degrees in Green Bay. I’m no Al Roker, but that’s a problem. Giving credit where it is due, Tua Tagovailoa has completed 75 percent of his passes, thrown for 302.5 yards per game and has seven TDs and no interceptions in his last two games. But he has more picks (8) than touchdowns (6) in the six coldest starts of his career. 

Miami’s defense has been on a heater and Jordan Love is loose with the football. But it’s impossible to back the Dolphins at night in the cold in general, specifically the way Josh Jacobs has been running the ball and with the Green Bay defense. I back the Pack.

3. Giant Disaster

I plan to watch every second of Bears-Lions and Dolphins-Packers. We are hosting Thanksgiving this year for the first time in over a decade. Big Thanksgiving, too. It’s called for 4:30 with the meal at 5ish. Perfect. I don’t have to watch a “soft” Giants team, labeled that dreaded word by star defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence after Baker Mayfield and the Bucs had Giants fans rushing for the exits. Tommy DeVito exists to tank and distract from the fact that the Giants are an impossible watch and Saquon Barkley is doing special things for the juggernaut Eagles. 

Sure the Cowboys are a mess, but at least they play hard as we saw in their wild win against Washington. Sure the Cowboys are 2-11 in their last 13 Thanksgiving games. Sure the Cowboys have lost every game at home this year. But these Giants defy trends. Jerry Jones talking up a Mike McCarthy contract extension before this game? Some good real/fake energy for Dallas. Giants owner John Mara hasn’t slept since Barkley left for Philly, as he said on “Hard Knocks.” It’s going to be his worst Thanksgiving ever. Dallas -4.

4. Chief Concern

Patrick Mahomes put his team on blast after the close call at Carolina. It was-deserved. Kansas City won but once against didn’t look remotely like a championship-caliber team. And once again didn’t cover the spread. And yes, I loved the Chiefs to cover last week. Well, if you can’t cover the 12.5-point spread on Black Friday against the Silver and Black led by Aidan O’Connell, well, there are bigger problems. I think the Chiefs respond to Mahomes’ rare moment of public humiliation.

5. MVP Watch

There are six weeks left in the NFL season and of course, all awards are subject to change. If the season ended today (it doesn’t), I would rank my MVP ballot 1. Josh Allen 2. Lamar Jackson 3. Saquon Barkley. And it’s very close. 

Allen is the definition of value and domination. His Bills are 9-2. He carries them. The surrounding talent he has is clearly inferior compared to Jackson and Barkley. Lamar leads or is tied for the top in passing touchdowns, passing yards and passer rating. Not to mention what he does on the ground. Barkley is unreal, on pace for 2,151 rushing yards and 2,548 yards from scrimmage. Both would be NFL records. He’s the best and most valuable player on this juggernaut Eagles team. This is going to be a wild finish. Allen remains my prediction and bet. The only other player I think is a dark-horse candidate is Joe Burrow if the Bengals start winning and make playoffs.

6. Mile-High Confidence

Bo Nix is on fire and he is now getting my vote for offensive rookie of the year.

Sean Payton is currently my favorite for coach of the year.

And don’t sleep on Patrick Surtain as a real candidate for defensive player of the year. He’s been in my top three all year. T.J. Watt is still my leader, but he took a turn for the worse in a head-to-head meeting with Myles Garrett last week in Cleveland. 

The Broncos have a real shot to make the playoffs and that will aid all of the above for awards. Plus, they have big-time games on national TV coming up, including Monday night in Cleveland. Everyone loves Jameis Winston. Wait until Surtain and the Broncos stone Cleveland’s offense.

7. Jet Landing

This is my fun fact of the week. If the Jets lose to Geno Smith this week, they will become the first team since the 1988 Chargers to lose to two quarterbacks they originally drafted (Sam Darnold) in the same season. It’s crazy to think the Jets have three losses this year with a lead in the fourth quarter, the most in the NFL. Imagine if the Jets won … Ah, forget it. 

I can appreciate Vegas not really knowing what to do with the line in his game. Seattle is favored by two. The Seahawks have also won two straight in stunning and impressive fashion against the 49ers and Cardinals. They enter Week 13 as the No. 3 seed in the NFC. What a sentence. What a world. Gimme the Seahawks.

8. Houston, We Have a Problem

No team in the NFL had a more disastrous loss in Week 12 than the Texans at home to Will Levis and the Titans. That was simply gross and unacceptable. As you know, I wasn’t backing Houston as a title contender all year, but I wrongly assumed they would beat the Titans. C.J. Stroud has regressed. So has the Texans’ offensive line line and the play calling. But the immediate remedy has to be a date with the lowly Jaguars, right? The Texans have to be able to beat the Jaguars, who are 2-9 and have the worst record in the league, right? And lay the five points, right? Right? The Texans have to look good against a team that has been outgained by 225 yards in each of its last three games, right?!

9. Commanding Respect?

The Commanders’ collapse is officially underway. Washington to miss the playoffs is currently +185. I cannot believe we are here, but we are here. Washington has the Titans this weekend. Then they are at New Orleans, home for the Eagles and Falcons before finishing the season in Dallas. I think Washington wins two or three at most down the stretch. Ten wins might not do it. I think the NFC West gets two teams in. I cannot believe the Cardinals lost in Seattle, but I still believe in Arizona and I won’t believe Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford and the Rams are dead until I see it. Tampa (+110) to make playoffs has a great feel with the return of Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield playing great ball. My trust level in Washington is gone.