Sam Darnold is coming off the best statistical season of his career. He led the Minnesota Vikings to a 14-win season, throwing for 4,319 yards with 35 touchdown passes. He also scored 307.9 fantasy points, which is 118.7 more points than his previous career high.

So, why is Darnold already a potential bust candidate in fantasy football next season?

Well, it all depends on what the Vikings do with him in the offseason. Darnold, slated to become a free agent, would experience a collapse in fantasy value if Minnesota decides to let him walk. After all, he’d had no real success in his first six seasons in the league (say what you will about the situations in New York and Carolina), so it’s pretty easy to suggest he benefitted from the quarterback-friendly system run by head coach Kevin O’Connell.

O’Connell’s system helped veteran Kirk Cousins put up top-10 fantasy numbers in his first two seasons as the main man in Minnesota. In 2022, he finished the season as the QB8. In 2023, Cousins was on pace to finish with a career-high 318.1 points before going down with an injured Achilles after eight games. Coincidentally (or maybe not), Cousins had one of his worst fantasy seasons and was benched after leaving the Vikings for Atlanta in 2024.

System matters, folks.

Whether the Vikings would keep Darnold was probably not debatable two weeks ago, but he was awful in the team’s final two games when the stakes were high. He failed to throw a touchdown and had a 55.5 passer rating in a Week 18 loss to the Lions in a game the Vikings needed to win to be the NFC’s No. 1 seed. In the Wild Card round, he put up another dud … 245 yards, one touchdown, a pick, lost a fumble that was returned for a TD and had a 77.6 rating in a blowout loss to the Rams.

Suddenly, his future in purple and white is maybe not so certain.

Remember, the Vikings drafted J.J. McCarthy with the 10th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He’s waiting in the wings and is less expensive than what Darnold might get on the open market as a free agent (whether he’s worth it or not).

The point here is clear … Darnold benefitted from O’Connell’s system, and having Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson (for the second half of the season) at his disposal. The teams that need a field general the most, the Titans, Browns, Giants and Raiders, would all be major downgrades in terms of system and talent. In these locations, I’d instantly tag Darnold as a fantasy bust.

His best hope to remain fantasy-relevant is for the Vikings to re-sign or franchise him and trade McCarthy, who could get them a king’s ramson. But if Darnold is wearing a new uniform next season, or the Vikings keep both him and McCarthy, there’s a chance we could see Darnold’s statistical level and fantasy value sink faster than the Vikings’ 2024 season.