Workers with middle-skills credentials provide essential medical and public services, build and maintain critical infrastructure, and help run key business operations, among other vital tasks and they sometimes earn more than workers with a bachelor’s degree. 

However, new research from Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce shows institutions that provide the middle-skill credentials needed to secure these jobs must adjust their production of certificates and associate degrees to address impending shortages in more than 100 well-paying occupations for middle-skill workers.  

“First, middle-skills providers need to recruit more individuals without a college degree to attend their institutions,” concludes the CEW report, which was produced with support from JPMorgan Chase. 

“Second, high schools and institutions that grant middle-skills credentials need to offer better career counseling to future and current enrollees, as students are ultimately responsible for choosing their program of study and too often choose one without fully understanding the financial consequences. 

“Third, employers need to work with institutions to provide more work-based learning opportunities in programs that lead to occupations facing anticipated shortages, especially those that require work-based learning as preparation for employment following program completion,” the report said. 

Shortages are forecast to occur in many middle skills occupations, including the New York-New Jersey-Pennsylvania region. The report defines high-paying middle-skills occupations as those where more than half of early-career workers without a four-year college degree can earn $53,000 or more and experience considerable earnings growth over time, with median annual earnings that rise to $80,000 by mid-career (ages 36–49). 

The report categorized high-paying middle-skills jobs into five occupational groups: blue-collar; management; protective services; science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM); and healthcare. Within these groups are occupations, such as police officers, firefighters, facilities managers, information security analysts, power plant operators, radiologic technicians, construction equipment operators and more. 

The blue-collar sector faces the most severe nationwide shortage of workers prepared for high-paying middle-skills jobs, with 52 of the 55 largest U.S. metro areas experiencing shortages, including the New York-Philadelphia-New Jersey metro region. This includes first-line supervisors in construction trades, production, mechanics, and more. 

More moderate shortages are expected in high-paying management, protective services, and STEM middle-skills jobs in most of the major metro areas, including NY-NJ-PA. However, while only 10 major metro areas are expected to face a credential shortage in programs aligned with high-paying middle-skills STEM occupations, including the NY-NJ-PA metro region, many smaller U.S. metro areas and rural communities face severe shortages. As a result, current credential production is projected to meet only 60% of demand nationwide through 2032. 

Healthcare is the only occupational group with a projected nationwide oversupply of credentials aligned with high-paying middle-skills jobs in highly populated metro areas, though the same may not be the case for rural areas. The types of middle-skill jobs without four-year degrees involved include nurses, radiologic technologists and technicians, respiratory therapists, sonographers, paramedic, and other healthcare jobs. 

The report said the NY-NJ-PA region (which includes the counties of Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, and Middlesex in New Jersey) is forecast to have a slight oversupply, with a “healthcare credential production to job ratio of 1.42.” 

However, the report said the Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington region (which includes Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, and Salem counties in New Jersey) is forecast to have an undersupply with a healthcare credential production to jobs ratio of only 0.58. 

The oversupply of healthcare workers in most major U.S. metro areas reflects, in part, the rising demand for workers with bachelor’s degrees in healthcare occupations that were typically held by workers with middle-skills credentials.  Employment trends for registered nurses (RNs) are a major driver of this trend. 

Between 2010 and 2022, the proportion of workers with middle-skills education credentials in healthcare occupations decreased from 46% to 25%. If this trend continues, middle-skills workers will make up only 10% of the workforce in these healthcare occupations by 2032, the report said. 

Kathryn Peltier Campbell, the report’s co-author and editorial director at CEW, said that even though not all metro areas will face shortages in programs aligned with high-paying middle skills jobs, where the shortages do exist, they may be substantial. 

“As it stands now, most middle-skills providers in areas experiencing shortages in programs aligned with high-paying middle-skills blue-collar, management, and protective services occupations would need to more than double their credential production to meet local demand through 2032,” Campbell said. 

The complete report, Missed Opportunities: Credential Shortages in Programs Aligned with High-Paying Middle-Skills Jobs in 55 US Metro Areas, can be viewed online here. 

An online data tool accompanies the report to aid regional planners, educational institutions, and job-training providers in making decisions about program investment and expansion.