Whether he wins a third MVP award or not, Lamar Jackson is having a downright dominant season. Will it be enough to lift the Ravens to an AFC North title?

Jackson can typically rely on his defense to help carry some weight, but Baltimore has struggled to contain some of the NFL’s better offenses. Those losses have piled up to the point that a division title is far from guaranteed and requires a win over the Steelers on Saturday.

Jackson’s lowest passer rating in both 2023 and 2024 came against the Steelers, who have somehow found a way to consistently contain him. One more loss to Pittsburgh could have major consequences for Baltimore, but a win could slide the Ravens right back into contention for a home playoff game.

Here’s an updated look at the Ravens’ playoff picture and how Baltimore can clinch in Week 16.

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Ravens playoff picture

AFC North standings

The Ravens sit a game behind the Steelers in the AFC North and would pull even with a win on Saturday. With two games remaining, however, the Steelers would still lead the division in that scenario.

Baltimore and Pittsburgh would be tied in the season series and tied in divisional record, at least temporarily, sending the tiebreaker to record against common opponents. The Steelers would still narrowly hold the advantage in common games, though it could still flip before the end of the season.

With a loss, however, the division race would be over. The Ravens would be eliminated from AFC North contention with a two-game deficit and the head-to-head tiebreaker in the Steelers’ hands. A win would not give them the lead immediately, but it would put Baltimore in position to potentially jump in front with a Steelers loss to the Chiefs on Christmas.

AFC wild-card standings

If the Ravens don’t win the AFC North, they are still highly likely to earn a wild-card berth. Baltimore can clinch a playoff berth with either a win over the Steelers or losses by both the Dolphins and Colts, ensuring at least a wild-card spot for Lamar Jackson and co. with two weeks still remaining.

Even if the Ravens lose on Saturday, it would still take quite a turn of events for Baltimore to miss the playoffs. A loss would make seeding less certain and threaten to knock the Ravens below the No. 5 seed, however. 

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Ravens remaining schedule

The Ravens need to take down the Steelers to stay alive in the AFC North on Saturday, but there won’t be much time to rest regardless of the outcome. Baltimore will face the Texans in Houston on Christmas four days later, and the team’s hope is a playoff berth will already be locked up by then.

John Harbaugh’s group finishes the season against the lowly Browns, who enter Week 16 having lost five of their past six games.

Ravens updated playoff chances

ESPN’s Football Power Index rates the Ravens’ playoff chances as greater than 99 percent, making it a near certainty that Baltimore will play beyond Week 18. The Ravens have a 30 percent chance of winning the AFC North entering Saturday’s game.