Now that I’ve got you here with the promise of sexy, sexy trades, I want to point you to a piece that my colleague Fred Katz wrote about this year’s season of deal-making, with Dec. 15 in the rearview mirror. Go ahead, read it. I’ll still be here when you get back.

*stares at wrist as if wearing a watch*

It is as if the league and players didn’t even think about the transaction-based content market when adding these rules. It is going to be very difficult to make trades this year, especially because so many competitive teams are over the first or second aprons. That puts the Oklahoma City Thunder, the one championship contender that doesn’t have to worry about the luxury tax, let alone either of the aprons, at a huge advantage. Even the teams with tax considerations but no significant apron-related restrictions, such as the Memphis Grizzlies and Cleveland Cavaliers, will be in strong positions.

Two predictions: 1) Those three teams will determine how busy this trade season is; 2) These rules will be loosened when the CBA is renegotiated.

For the Raptors, the upshot is it’s not likely to be a rich sellers’ market. Most moves will probably happen along the margins, which is OK, since the Raptors have some players who could fit at the back end of a contender’s rotation. With that in mind, let’s go through the team’s trade tiers.

To remind you: I have placed each player into a group that corresponds with the scenario in which he is most likely to be traded. The groups are not ranked by the likelihood of each scenario playing out. However, within each group, the players listed at the top are more likely to be traded, and the players listed at the bottom are less likely to move. (All salary details include this season.)

Essentially untouchable

Scottie Barnes (six years, $235 million remaining — projected, unrestricted free agent in 2030)

Nothing’s impossible — but as mentioned above, almost every trade is less possible than it used to be. The Raptors aren’t looking to trade Barnes, who is the tentpole of their rebuild. Never say never, but this would require something as big as the Domantas Sabonis-Tyrese Haliburton deal from a few years back.

Most likely to be traded

Bruce Brown (one year, $23 million remaining, UFA in 2025)

I’m not optimistic the Raptors will be able to get much for him, but there is proof of concept with Brown as a contributor on championship contenders in Denver and Brooklyn. He makes a lot of money, so finding the match is difficult. There will be lots of poking around, and it only takes one team to make a decent offer. If he doesn’t move, the Raptors will eventually say having his contract come off the books at the end of the year is a fine outcome, which will be true. Still, not turning Brown into more future-focussed pieces would be a disappointing note for the Pascal Siakam trade, which has already yielded Ja’Kobe Walter and, by virtue of a related deal, Ochai Agbaji.

It would have to be a blockbuster

RJ Barrett (three years, $82.1 million remaining, UFA in 2027)

Immanuel Quickley (five years, $162.5 million remaining, UFA in 2029)

Clearly, it would be a major surprise if either Barrett or Quickley were traded. I have Barrett as more likely to be traded because a) he is having a good year, making him more valuable; b) he has a shorter contract; and c) there are still questions about the Barnes-Barrett fit. (The results have been mostly positive this year, although the sample is small.) Given that he has played three games, Quickley is likely untradeable now. Assuming he gets back to full health and stays that way, I think his contract will be fine.

If a championship contender pushes its chips in

Jakob Poeltl (three years, $58.5 million, including player option for 2026-27, UFA in 2027)

Poeltl is good. Too good? We’ve been over that. The Raptors have no need to trade him if they don’t get offered something useful for him, as they can always suggest he take the spring off if they need to lose some games late in the season. He suffered a groin injury on Monday against Chicago, and is expected to miss some time.

Will a needy team emerge? As ever, it’s easy to point out the teams who could benefit from having Poeltl — almost every contender, but especially the Knicks (if Mitchell Robinson can’t get healthy), Suns, Lakers and Grizzlies. Finding a team willing and able to pay the price? Less likely.

Young players who probably aren’t going anywhere

Jamal Shead (three years, $6.1 million remaining, including team option for 2026-27, restricted free agent in 2027)

Jonathan Mogbo (three years, $6.1 million remaining, including team option for 2026-27, RFA in 2027)

Ja’Kobe Walter (four years, $16.8 million remaining, including team options for 2026-27 and 2028, RFA in 2028)

Ochai Agbaji (two years, $10.7 million remaining, RFA in 2026)

Gradey Dick (three years, $16.9 million remaining, including team option for 2026-27; RFA in 2027)

I struggled with the rankings within this group, because higher salaries are often necessary to make trades happen. You don’t see many minimum-for-minimum trades. On the other hand, Dick, Agbaji and Walter all feel like keepers for the Raptors, and they would hold on to them tightly, even in multi-player trade scenarios.

It probably doesn’t matter. I’d expect all five of these guys to be on the roster next year.

Minor tinkering/salary matching

Chris Boucher (one year, $10.8 million remaining, UFA in 2025)

Bruno Fernando (one year, 2.1 million remaining non-guaranteed until Jan. 7, UFA in 2025)

Davion Mitchell (one year, $6.5 million remaining, RFA in 2025)

Kelly Olynyk (two years, $26.2 million remaining, UFA in 2026)

Garrett Temple (one year, $2.1 million remaining, UFA in 2025)

Mitchell’s inclusion is probably the most controversial here. It’s possible he is back with the Raptors next year. He has been as good as advertised defensively and fits in well with the group. However, the Raptors have Quickley and Shead under contract. With Barnes, Quickley and Barrett all making significant money, and Poeltl on the books for at least one more year, the Raptors have to start being choosy about who they give second contracts to. I’m not sure if there will be a significant market for Mitchell, but I believe the Raptors will prioritize Agbaji, who is extension-eligible after this season, over Mitchell. If Mitchell could fetch the Raptors a pick or prospect, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him move.

The others are either expiring contracts (Boucher, Fernando and Temple) or a veteran in Olynyk who won’t have much stand-alone value, but could help make a bigger deal work. Fernando’s non-guaranteed deal is worth flagging. Even though if it’s for the veteran minimum, if a team is looking for a way to duck under the tax, sending a player with a guaranteed deal to Toronto for Fernando, and then immediately waiving the centre to save money, could be an avenue worth exploring. If the Raptors can even get a spare second-rounder for that, they should be amenable.

Notes

• The Raptors can trade their three players on two-way contracts, Jamison Battle, Ulrich Chomche and A.J. Lawson, but they don’t count toward matching salary, making it very unlikely.

• The Raptors control all of their first-round picks, plus Indiana’s in 2026, protected through the top-four picks in 2026 and 2027. Their second-round pick this year is outgoing, but they have Portland’s.

• The Raptors can send out $5.84 million in a trade, having already spent some in the Minnesota trade that got the Raptors the pick with which they selected Chomche. They can receive up to the maximum allowable $7.24 million.

(Photo: Michael Reaves/Getty Images)