Last national title: Never. They’ve been close several times. There was a last-second loss to the Auburn Tigers in the 2011 BCS championship game; a loss to Ohio State in the first playoff championship game in ’14; the ’12 team that lost one game by three points in overtime and finished the season ranked No. 2; and don’t forget about star quarterback Dennis Dixon getting hurt in mid-November ’07 when the Ducks were part of the curse of No. 2 streak.

At this point, the program has everything but the hardware. Phil Knight & Co. have provided all necessities in terms of player payroll and facilities. They have deep recruiting ties in California and an expanded reach across the nation. They have one of the next great young coaches in Dan Lanning.

And more to the 2024 point, they have had the best season of anyone in the playoff. They’re the last unbeaten, the most consistent, the least flawed of any team. They are a well-rounded unit, adept at passing and running and stopping both, with solid (occasionally spectacular) special teams. They have the best and most experienced quarterback in the field in Dillon Gabriel, who holds FBS career records for most games started and most total touchdowns.

Now more than ever, it’s there for the taking for the Ducks. Can they finish the quest?

Worst-case scenario: A Rose Bowl quarterfinal loss to Tennessee in which Lanning goes for it on fourth down four times and converts zero. Then fellow Pac-12 evacuee Arizona State goes on to win an improbable title.

Last national title: 2014. This has been a three-act Shakespearean drama over the last 11 months. 

Act I: Dismay of losing a third straight time to the Michigan Wolverines, compounded by them winning the title; the all-in $20 million payroll to retain and recruit star players; the gambit to hire UCLA Bruins head coach Chip Kelly and make him the offensive coordinator; the expectations of winning it all. 

Act II: The successful push through the season to 10–1, marred only by a one-point loss at Oregon; then the oh-no-not-again nightmare loss to a mediocre Michigan team as a three-touchdown favorite that cast fresh doubt on everything. 

Now here we are at Act III: Redemption or the final implosion.

Ohio State has the best overall roster in the nation and could well have the most players selected in the 2025 NFL draft. It’s the kind of team that should win a national championship—or at least come close—in order to live up to its full potential. All public statements to the contrary about Ryan Day’s future as coach of the Buckeyes, an early exit could make life untenable in that position. 

Worst-case scenario: A first-round home loss to Tennessee on Saturday in which the Buckeyes are again booed off the field—but Day keeps his job. Meanwhile, a Penn State program Ohio State has owned for years goes on to win it all. And Michigan cleans up in the portal.

Last national title: 1988. This will be Notre Dame’s eighth straight season finishing in the top 20, with three of those in the top 10, under two different coaches. The program is an established, annual playoff contender. The recruiting machine is humming. But what the Irish haven’t done is win it all, or really come close. That Lou Holtz championship was a long time ago.

The string of blowout losses in playoff games or other big bowl games has to end for Notre Dame to bridge the gap between elite and elite-adjacent. This 11–1 team looks fully capable of making a run at winning the whole thing, with wounded Georgia waiting in the second round if the Irish can beat Indiana. Notre Dame has two staples of championship contention—a great defense and a reliable running game. Marcus Freeman’s in-game coaching has improved. His coordinators are excellent. Can the Irish handle the moment?

Worst-case scenario: A first-round loss to eventual national champion Indiana. The Irish lose control of their own state and have to listen to Curt Cignetti crowing about it for the rest of eternity.

Last national title: 1986. If you think it’s been a long time since Notre Dame won a natty, Penn State would like a word. Put it this way: Joe Paterno still coached another 25 years after that last championship. (Yes, the Nittany Lions were screwed out of at least a share in ’94. But still.)

Big Game (?) James Franklin might have the best of his 11 Penn State teams, or at least his best since 2016. There is greater offensive creativity under first-year coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. It could be argued that Penn State has the two best non-quarterback/non-running back players in the tournament, in defensive end Abdul Carter and tight end/multi-purpose threat Tyler Warren. The running back tandem is excellent. The draw appears favorable. The opportunity to tear off a sticky, good-not-great label is at hand.

Worst-case scenario: A first-round upset home loss to SMU, in a game where Drew Allar is injured and backup-turned-transfer Beau Pribula is watching somewhere on TV. Then the Mustangs marching all the way from Happy Valley to the national championship. And Franklin still has nowhere else to go.

Last national title: Never. Should Boise State really feel pressure to win the whole thing? Put it this way—after all those years of pushing to reach the highest level, they have finally arrived. And they’re carrying the banner for their comrades in the Group of 5 conferences nationwide. The Power 4, blessed with every advantage but coveting more bids, would welcome a chance to attack the credibility of the little guys. Playing well enough to justify that No. 3 seed is important.

Statistically, Boise State ranks among the most impressive teams in the field. Powered by Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty, the Broncos have a prolific offense—their 6.83 yards per play is the highest of the 12 playoff teams. They are the top team in third-down conversion rate at 49.4%. Nobody in the field has more than Boise State’s 20 explosive scrimmage plays of 40 yards or more. But the defense has to hold up, and there is the eternal question of stepping way up in class from the average Mountain West Conference opponent.

Worst-case scenario: The Broncos lose a Fiesta Bowl classic to SMU on a Statue of Liberty play by the Mustangs. Then an NFL team hires Lanning and Spencer Danielson jumps to Oregon.

Last national title: 2005. The program that seemingly has it all hasn’t had a national title since Vince Young was gliding around the Rose Bowl nearly 20 years ago. The Horns wandered the above-average desert from ’10 to ’22, then broke through by making the CFP last year and losing in the semifinals. They handled the move to the Southeastern Conference just fine when playing everyone not named Georgia. And now they’re on the other side of the bracket from their nemesis.

A lot of Longhorns fans are already envisioning beating Clemson and Arizona State to get No. 1 Oregon in the Cotton Bowl, deep in the heart of Texas.

The defense is plenty good enough, leading the nation in fewest yards allowed per play at 4.0. The offense is productive and occasionally explosive—but also prone to fits of self-destruction. No playoff team has surrendered more sacks than Texas’s 28, and no team has committed more turnovers than Texas’s 22. Quarterback Quinn Ewers is capable of great things—and big mistakes. The offensive line is under constant fan scrutiny.

Worst-case scenario: Ewers turns it over three times, Clemson’s Texan QB Cade Klubnik shines, and the Tigers pull the upset in Austin. Eternal in-state Little Brother SMU wins it all. Arch Manning transfers to Georgia.

Last national title: 1998. It would be a miscalculation to say that the Vols are just happy to be in the playoff after many years on the outside. Big Orange is tired of watching Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Florida and Auburn win titles this century while not getting a shot at one. This is not an easily satisfied fan base. And given the chance to play a wobbly Ohio State in Round 1, they’ve shown their eagerness by swallowing up a lot of tickets in Ohio Stadium. (United Airlines has added a direct round-trip flight from Knoxville, Tenn., to Columbus, Ohio. And thousands of others will make the drive.) 

Tennessee’s biggest strides this season have come defensively, ranking second in the SEC in run defense, pass defense and total defense. They’re beastly up front and can cover in the secondary. Dylan Sampson is an elite running back, but the offense has oddly lacked the ability to generate chunk plays in the passing game. (The Vols are 12th in the SEC in passing plays of 20-plus yards.) Ohio State is a slow-starting team, but Tennessee has been even slower offensively over the last eight games. If tempo doesn’t rattle the Buckeyes, it could be a long, cold slog Saturday night.

Worst-case scenario: After another scoreless first half, the Vols are routed in the Horseshoe and all those orange-clad fans have a somber drive south from I-71 to I-75. Georgia wins another title in an all-SEC final against Texas, and 1998 fades further in the rearview mirror.

Last national title: Never. Indiana could certainly be considered a team blissfully playing with house money at the end of arguably its best season ever. But then the Hoosiers got their shot at winning the Indiana State Championship at Notre Dame, which stirs the competitive juices. And in the back of every long-suffering IU fan’s mind, there is this: What if we never get this shot again? So, yeah, better swing with all your might. 

After being mocked for weeks about playing a weak schedule, the Hoosiers have to show up in South Bend and defend their record. Take away to punt-team debacles in the lone loss, to Ohio State, and that game looks much different. The IU defense has been an underrated unit all season, especially in the front seven. But as good as the offense has been, the line has to show that it can hold up and handle pressure better than it did in Columbus. (And quarterback Kurtis Rourke has to see it coming better, too.)

Worst-case scenario: The Hoosiers give up seven sacks and get blown out in South Bend on Friday night, becoming the first team knocked out of the bracket. Cignetti unexpectedly retires and Indiana goes back to being Indiana.

Last national title: Never. There is only one program in this playoff that has come back from the dead, and that’s SMU. Hit with an NCAA death penalty for unrepentant rule breaking in the 1980s, it’s been a very long road back. But now that they’re here, why not continue with the Texas-sized ambitions that spurred SMU to buy its way into the Atlantic Coast Conference this year?

Provided the Mustangs handle the frigid weather and white-out bedlam in Beaver Stadium, they have the explosive offense and stout run defense to hang with Penn State. Quarterback Kevin Jennings is an improvisational wizard—and he will have to be, with Abdul Carter & Co. chasing him. SMU has skill talent, although the loss of stud tight end RJ Maryland was a blow. Special teams could be an area of concern.

Worst-case scenario: The Mustangs are routed in State College, Pa., turning the ball over five times and failing to cover Tyler Warren. Rhett Lashlee gets a blueblood job that comes open late. Billionaire boosters are so depressed they shut down the money cannons. And rival TCU still can claim a better playoff run.

Last national title: 2018. As the last team in the playoff, arriving via a 56-yard field goal by a freshman on the final play of the ACC championship game, Clemson would be forgiven for feeling like it already had its season high point. That moment in Charlotte might turn out to be exactly that, but fans who experienced the incredible playoff immersion from ’15 to ’20 haven’t forgotten what that felt like. They’d happily take some more.

Facing Dabo Swinney in a now-or-never game is a stress test for any opponent. This is by no means a vintage Clemson defense—allowing 4.56 yards per rush would have been unconscionable for most of the program’s existence. But Clemson is a plus-16 turnover margin with an opportunistic pass defense and an offense that takes care of the ball. Running back Phil Mafah has been playing hurt for weeks, but two weeks off might help him rejuvenate—Clemson will badly need him to provide some offensive balance in Austin.

Worst-case scenario: Clemson scores three points in Austin and loses for the third time this season to an SEC opponent. Swinney insists Little Ol’ Clemson had a great 9–4 season, declares the cupboard is full and stops taking transfers after the Southeast Missouri State receiver arrives. SMU wins the title and the ACC defeats Clemson in court.

Last national title: 2022. A team that began the year No. 1 and ended it with an SEC championship has to be hellbent on winning it all, right? Well, sure, but the circumstances might have altered expectations now. After a few years of operating as the new Nick Saban Prototype Unbreakable Machine Program, this has been a wildly melodramatic season for a flawed and inconsistent team. And now starting quarterback Carson Beck is injured and likely out for the rest of the season, however long that lasts. 

Gunner Stockton of Tiger, Ga., away in the mountains in the northern part of the state near both the South Carolina and North Carolina borders, is expected to make his first college start in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinals. No pressure, kid—especially given how much an offense with a puny running game has relied on its QB all season. The Bulldogs have also lost their punter, Brett Thorson, an underrated weapon. Georgia’s ability to contend for a title will likely fall upon its defense, which is very good but might need to be superhuman.

Worst-case scenario: Stockton gets hurt, too. Jaden Rashada isn’t ready to play well in an emergency role. Georgia gets shut out in the Sugar Bowl by Indiana, but Mike Bobo keeps his offensive coordinator job. Tennessee wins the national title.

Last national title: Never. Picked to finish last in the Big 12, the Sun Devils instead finished first—and here they are. Incredible work by all involved. Being blessed with a bye into the quarterfinals makes it all the better. Would it be greedy to expect to win three more from there? Well, yeah. But it’s greedy season in college football.

Say this much for Arizona State: Nobody was more impressive in its conference title game. The Devils absolutely trucked the Iowa State Cyclones for their sixth win in a row (they’ve only lost once with starting quarterback Sam Leavitt in the lineup). ASU is on a tremendous roll, having never trailed in its last four games. The Devils are riding the legs of Cam Skattebo as far as they can.

Worst-case scenario: The Sun Devils walk into an orange ambush in the Peach Bowl and are smashed by No. 12 seed Clemson. Skattebo breaks no tackles, Leavitt throws interceptions and Kenny Dillingham finally coaches like a 34-year-old in his second year. Oregon wins the national title, Lanning goes to the NFL and Dillingham is summoned away from his alma mater and back to Eugene by Knight for a gazillion dollars.