On Thursday, three players will be competing for two semifinal spots out of the Orange Group at the WTA Finals Riyadh presented by PIF. Sort of.

One of those spots is assured of going to Coco Gauff, whose straight-sets win over Iga Swiatek on Tuesday — just her second over the Pole in 13 career meetings — ensured that the World No.3 has a place in the knockout rounds. But her position is up in the air — though the American largely controls her own destiny in the race to finish as group winner.

Swiatek, and Wimbledon champion Barbora Krejcikova, are in contention for the remaining spot. On Thursday, Gauff will face Krejcikova and Swiatek will face 2023 WTA Finals runner-up Jessica Pegula, who has no chance of repeating that feat in Riyadh, having already been eliminated from semifinal contention with two straight-set losses to Gauff and Krejcikova.

Let’s break the road to the semifinals down for all three women.

How can Gauff win the group?

A win for Gauff against Krejcikova will put her into the semifinals as the group’s winner with a 3-0 record, no matter the result between Swiatek and Pegula.

Crucially, the first-place finisher in the Orange Group will avoid a semifinal against World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka, who has qualified for the semifinals as the winner of the Purple Group.

Gauff can also finish in the top spot if Krejcikova beats her in three sets AND Swiatek beats Pegula.

What is Swiatek’s path to the semifinals?

Swiatek, the 2023 WTA Finals champion, has only one path to the knockout rounds: She must beat Pegula, and Gauff must also win, for Swiatek to qualify in the second spot. 

Where does Krejcikova fit in?

Krejcikova — who lost a 6-4, 3-0 lead to Swiatek earlier in the week — put herself back in contention with her 6-3, 6-3 win over Pegula. The Czech can clinch the top spot in the group for herself — and avoid a match against Sabalenka, whom she’s lost to six times in seven matches, in the semifinals — if she beats Gauff in two sets and Swiatek beats Pegula, or if she beats Gauff and Pegula beats Swiatek.

Krejcikova will qualify behind Gauff if Pegula beats Swiatek.