Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani is smart and cunning enough to appreciate the difference between the loud rhetoric coming from Al Jazeera and his relations with the United States.

Qatar’s marriage of convenience is coming to an end. By suspending its mediation between Hamas and the Israelis for a truce in Gaza and release of captives, Doha has officially confirmed what media leaks have been saying about its change of policy regarding Hamas after the cataclysm the group provoked with its October 7, 2023 attack on Israel.

No one has denied what American writer Bob Woodward reported in his recently-published book “War” about the crucial exchanges between senior American officials, Arab leaders and their top aides.

The exchanges which Woodward reported took place during the first days following the “Al-Aqsa Flood” have been stunning.  From them, it was clear that the fate of Hamas had been settled in the region.  Hamas had become a burden that had to be shed.

To understand Qatar, one must forget all that Al Jazeera says. All the loud noise coming from the channel’s TV broadcasts is nothing but a smoke-screen intended to conceal real Qatari policies.

When US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Doha from Jordan after meeting Jordanian King Abdullah II on October 13, 2023, he immediately met the Qatari emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. Even before Blinken pressured the emir over the situation of Hamas, Sheikh Tamim made it clear that the fate of his country’s ties to the militant Palestinian movement after the “Al Aqsa Flood” was sealed. Hamas has now one last role it could play in Doha by acting as a negotiation channel with the movement’s military wing inside the enclave, working for the release of the Israeli hostages/captives that Hamas seized on its way back from southern Israel after its October 7 assault.

The Qataris understood from the first moment that what Hamas did with the “Al-Aqsa Flood” attack could not be politically undone. The countdown has been running ever since. The Qataris tried to make it easy for themselves by promoting within the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas and Al Jazeera circles the notion that the countdown related to dates for possible truces accompanying the release of the captives. However, being instinctively smart in playing on the concerns of others, they had realised that the countdown signalled the end of the game.

I would here like to beg Mr Woodward and his publisher permission to quote from their book some of the statements attributed to Sheikh Tamim.

The emir of Qatar is said to have told the US Secretary of State, “We explained to Hamas that no one accepts this. No one accepts what they did. You have no friends left. What do you expect us to tell the Americans and Israelis?”

During the conversation, Blinken also told Sheikh Tamim, “Two things on behalf of the president”.

“Right now you’re dealing with Hamas for the hostages. We recognise the value of having a channel to negotiate the release of hostages. But when this is over, it can’t continue to be business as usual with Hamas. That’s out.”

To those words, the emir replied: “I understand and it won’t be. I don’t need it any more. I don’t want to have obstacles with America. We’ll keep the channel open now because you find it useful. Our relationship with America is very important.”

Doha hence became no more than a useful channel for the Americans and the Israelis. Sheikh Tamim is smart and cunning enough to appreciate the difference between the loud rhetoric coming from Al Jazeera and his relations with the United States.

For him, Hamas is a bargaining chip which he can throw away after it serves its purpose (or so he believes, at least since he has yet to see how the Israelis intend to carry out their revenge on Qatar).

For Qatar, however, the United States is, without exaggeration, everything.

It is everything, starting from making possible the relaxed attitude of the emir, his father and the ruling family as they bask under the protection of the largest and most important American military base outside NATO. The US also ensures protection for the Qataris’ hundreds of billions of dollars and assets from gas revenues deposited at the places of their choice around the world. Qatar collects and invests its revenues worry-free, the same way it can afford to be unconcerned about the country’s security. This has been the case so far at least.

Sheikh Tamim surprised US Secretary of State Blinken by offering to sacrifice Hamas even before Washington asked for it. The emir was clearly aware of what was at stake at this juncture.

Whether Qatar knew about Yahya Sinwar’s plan to launch the “Al-Aqsa Flood” or not, this is now irrelevant. Whether the Hamas Political Bureau, and specifically its head Ismail Haniyeh, knew about Sinwar’s plan or not is also irrelevant.  Qatar and others, especially Iran, received Israel’s response the day Haniyeh was assassinated in the fortified guest house in Tehran.

Doha says it has suspended its mediation in the negotiations between Hamas and the Israelis. But the Qatari leadership had already realised that there was no such thing as truce negotiations any more after the Israeli army and Mossad began their operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hamas and the Gaza war became marginal in the larger scheme of things in Lebanon. The moment of the killing of Hezbollah’s Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah was predictable as were other related developments. Israel delayed carrying them out until the destruction of Gaza was complete and the new pagers and walkie-talkies were in the pockets or on the hips of every person of importance in the hierarchy of Hezbollah. Israel launched its wave of air strikes that stunned the Lebanese before bombing Nasrallah’s location and ushering in a new phase in the showdown.
There is no doubt that as they watched the orange smoke clouds rise after the bombing of Nasrallah’s headquarters, the Qataris realised that their mediation was over. If they had any doubt left, it was soon to dissipate as they found out that the November 5 election would be enough to distract the US administration. The most they could hope for henceforth was a passing statement from Blinken. Then Donald Trump destroyed their remaining illusions with his landslide victory over Kamala Harris.

The Qatari statement about suspending mediation was merely a confirmation of a known fact.

As for what is said about Hamas leaders being given notice to evacuate their offices, hotels and villas in Doha, it is obvious the matter had been already settled, as spelled out in Woodward’s book, the day Sheikh Tamim met Secretary Blinken.

The Israeli intervention, including the sweeping strikes directed at Hamas leaders, and the liquidation of Yahya Sinwar and before him Ismail Haniyeh and Saleh al-Arouri, helped lift the burden of responsibility from Qatari shoulders.

The remaining Hamas leaders, such as Khaled Meshaal, have already been accustomed to evacuation notices, whether directed at him personally, as it was the case with the Jordanians’ request for him to leave Amman, or when it was a collective departure of Palestinians by the thousands when the PLO was expelled from Jordan after the events of Black September in 1970. It was also the case in Lebanon, first after the Israeli invasion and then after confrontation with Syria. The Palestinians had to evacuate Beirut in 1982 after an Israeli siege, and depart Tripoli in late 1983 after a Syrian siege. There is no doubt that the leaders of the Palestinian factions always have their bags packed and are ready to leave at a moment’s notice.

To be fair, there were many weddings of convenience in Doha. There was Hezbollah, whose image changed in the eyes of Al Jazeera channel from heroism before the outbreak of the Syrian civil war, to what resembled loathing, when Nasrallah sided with Assad, then again to praise after the outbreak of the current war. Today, the Qatari clarifications represent the final chapter of the marriages of convenience. The loud voices will fade in Doha. But what will not fade is the sound of explosions from Israel’s deadly strikes against innocent people in a war instigated by Iran and causing the death of tens of thousands of  Palestinians and Lebanese and the destruction of towns and villages without any clear goal, except maybe nourishing the tales with which Al Jazeera is feeding its viewers, even if Doha itself is no longer interested in hearing them. Marriages of convenience have become annoying to Qatar which has moved on to a new stage in the game.

Haitham El Zobaidi is the Executive Editor of Al Arab Publishing House.