Qatar Open: Will Swiatek maintain dominance? Who has a shot to dethrone Doha queen?

Posted by author February 9, 2025 World

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This year, the three-time champion will bid for a fourth consecutive title in Doha, as the cast of elite WTA talent assembles for the first 1000-level event of the 2025 season.

If Swiatek completes the four-peat she would be the first WTA player to win the same title four years running since Caroline Wozniacki owned now defunct New Haven from 2008-2011.

Iga’s Draw: tricky?

Hard to consider anything tricky for Swiatek, given her past performance in Doha, but her path does have a few speedbumps lying in wait. Below we plot her potential path to the title:

R1 – Bye
R2 – Maria Sakkari or Elena Gabriela Ruse
R3 – [16] Vekic (or Noskova, or maybe even Putinsteva)
QF – [5] Rybakina
SF – [4] Paolini or [7] Zheng
F – [1] Sabalenka

There are some enticing matchups that could potentially occur in Swiatek’s quarter and half. If Swiatek faces Sakkari in round two, it’s worth mentioning that Sakkari has split six career meetings with the Pole. But she has not defeated her since 2021, and has lost the last three.

If we look to the third round (round of 16), we see that Swiatek is 4-0 vs Vekic, but both Noskova and Putintseva have recent wins against Swiatek at the majors. Noskova defeated the Pole at the Aussie Open last year, while Putintseva got her at Wimbledon last summer.

Obviously the quarterfinal is the big hurdle, with a rematch of last year’s final potentially occurring in the quarter-final with Elena Rybakina. Last year it was Swiatek winning in the final over the Kazakhstani, 7-6(8), 6-2.

The semi-final round could be tricky as well, particularly if it’s Zheng, who defeated Swiatek at last year’s Olympics, who faces her in the semis. Jelena Ostapenko – she of the 4-0 lifetime record vs Swiatek – is also in this section.

And, of course, there is world No 1 Aryna Sabalenka lurking in the top half as a potential final opponent for Swiatek.

The usual suspects

Swiatek led all WTA players with 30 WTA 1000 wins last year, Sabalenka was second with 28 and Coco Gauff was third with 24. These are your three favorites to win the title, based on their consistency, and form thus far in 2025.

Sabalenka No 1

Sabalenka is defending zero points at Doha, due to the fact that she withdrew due to injury last year. Swiatek, meanwhile is defending 1000 from her title. That means that Sabalenka will stay on top in the rankings no matter what happens in Doha.

Sabalenka has made three appearances in Doha, winning the title in 2020, and owns a 7-2 lifetime record at the tournament.

Gauff has reached the quarter-finals twice in Doha, and owns a 4-3 lifetime record.