Purdue men's basketball March Madness projections, bracketology for Feb. 18

Purdue men’s basketball March Madness projections, bracketology for Feb. 18

Posted by author February 17, 2025 Basketball

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Here’s a breakdown of Purdue’s resume, bracket projections and how upcoming games can impact their seeding.
Fluctuating NET rankings for opponents such as Rutgers and Penn State could alter Purdue’s Quad 1 wins count.
Purdue was a 2 seed in the NCAA selection committee’s in-season bracket reveal before Saturday’s loss to Wisconsin.

Purdue men’s basketball’s NCAA tournament standing shifted considerably Saturday.

About half an hour before a home tipoff against Wisconsin, the Boilermakers received a No. 2 seed in the MIdwest Region in the selection committee’s in-season top 16 seeds projection. It set them up for a favorable geographic assignment for the opening weekend and a regional in Indianapolis, should they advance.

Then the Badgers — a 3 seed in that reveal — scorched their way to a 94-84 victory. Coupled with last Tuesday’s 75-73 loss at Michigan, two potential Quad 1 wins instead resulted in two setbacks.

Also, Penn State’s continued implosion — losses in seven straight and 11 of 12 — officially harmed Purdue’s resume this week. The Nittany Lions fell from 75 in NET ranking to 78 after Saturday’s home loss to Washington. What previously counted as a Quad 1 loss for the Boilermakers becomes their only Quad 2 loss as long as Penn State stays below 75.

For the same reason, keep an eye on Rutgers, which still counts as a Quad 1 road win while precariously perched at No. 75.

Purdue fell from eight to 13 in NET ranking ahead of Tuesday’s big road game at Michigan State. Here’s where Purdue’s resume stands as of Sunday evening:

What is NET ranking? How is men’s college basketball NET ranking determined?

.A team’s victories are assigned values from Quad 1 to Quad 4, based on the opponent’s NET ranking and the location of the game. Those rankings remain fluid up through Selection Sunday, with teams rising and falling in the NET rankings and potentially moving in and out of quadrants.

Quad 1: Home vs. NET 1-30, neutral 1-50 or away 1-75
Quad 2: Home vs. 31-75, neutral 51-100 or award 76-135
Quad 3: Home 76-160, neutral 101-200 or away 135-240
Quad 4: Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, away 241 or lower

Purdue men’s basketball’s NCAA Tournament resume for March Madness

NET ranking: 13

Quad 1 record: 7-6

Quad 2 record: 7-1

Quad 3 record: 1-0

Quad 4 record: 4-0

Bracketology projections for Purdue men’s basketball

Bracketwag (Updated Feb. 16): No. 3 seed in South (Atlanta) Region vs. 14 Akron (in Milwaukee). Possible second-round opponents 6 Ole Miss and 11 Drake.

Charlie Hergenrother (Updated Feb. 16): No. 3 seed in South Region vs. 14 UNC Wilmington (in Providence, R.I.). Possible second-round opponents 6 Memphis or 11 BYU/11 Arkansas.

5-Star Bracketology (Updated Feb. 16): No. 3 seed in East (Newark) Region vs. 14 Jacksonville State (in Cleveland). Possible second-round opponents 6 Mississippi State or 11 Texas.

1-3-1 Sports (Updated Feb. 16): No. 2 seed in Midwest (Indianapolis) Region vs. 15 Cleveland State (in Milwaukee). Possible second-round opponents 7 Clemson or 10 Drake.

How Purdue men’s basketball results affected its March Madness resume last week

Feb. 11: 75-73 road loss at Michigan (No. 20 NET) — Strictly speaking, any two-point road loss to top-25 teams does not harm a tournament resume. It stings to miss another possible Quad 1 win, especially with a real chance to contend for a top-four spot on the seed line. This one hurt most, though, in the Big Ten championship race.

Feb. 15: 94-84 home loss to Wisconsin (12)— Despite the quality of opponent — something the Badgers confirmed with this performance — this one hurts more. In any head-to-head comparison, all things being equal from here on in, Wisconsin likely gets the nod by winning in Mackey Arena. Bracketologists who updated late Saturday or Sunday already started flipping them in that 2-3 seed comparison.

How upcoming games could help Purdue men’s basketball’s March Madness resume

Tuesday at Michigan State (No. 21 NET) — This game long loomed as perhaps the most impactful of the Big Ten season. It’s the only shot at the Spartans and now it determines whether last week’s skid extends to an actual losing streak. It’s not a must-win for NCAA tournament success, but it might be for the Big Ten championship race.

Sunday at Indiana (No. 57 NET) — Prior to the season, a potential sweep of the Hoosiers seemed like a safe assumption for two Quad 1 wins. Currently, the home win over IU only qualifies as Quad 2. It cannot completely be ruled out that a road win would end up there, too. Regardless, NCAA seeding sits far down on the motivation list for this rivalry game.

Purdue men’s basketball remaining schedule

Date	Opponent (NET ranking, Quadrant)	Location
Tuesday	Michigan State (21, Quad 1)	East Lansing, Mich.
Sunday	Indiana (57, Quad 1)	Bloomington, Ind.
Feb. 28	UCLA (24, Quad 1)	West Lafayette, Ind.
March 4	Rutgers (75, Quad 2)	West Lafayette, Ind.
March 7	Illinois (18, Quad 1)	Champaign, Ill.