The 2024-2025 Big 12 basketball regular season is coming to a close. As of Sunday morning, most Big 12 teams have played 18 games in conference play. Only Colorado and Kansas State, who face off on Sunday, have three conference games remaining. In this article, we will use KenPom game probabilities to project the final Big 12 standings and the corresponding Big 12 bracket.

After a perfect week, BYU is tied with Iowa State for fourth place in the Big 12 standings. The Cougars’ game against Iowa State will be a play-in game for a top four seed. As of this writing, KenPom projects Iowa State to win that game and, therefore, projects Iowa State to finish in the top four ahead of BYU.

BYU is guaranteed a top five spot in the Big 12 standings. Even with two BYU losses to close out the regular season and two Kansas wins, there would be a tie between BYU and Kansas. If there is a tie between BYU and Kansas, BYU will win the tiebreaker due to the Cougars’ head-to-head win over the Jayhawks.

BYU is guaranteed a first-round bye in the Big 12 tournament. In the scenario outlined above, BYU would get a first-round bye before facing the winner of UCF-Cincinnati.

BYU is 2-1 this season against Cincinnati and UCF. Of all the teams BYU would want to see in the bottom of the standings, Cincinnati would likely pose the greatest threat. The Bearcats have a few guards that can give BYU problems in isolation. A win in the second round would advance BYU to the quarterfinals against four-seed Iowa State.