It’s the last day of the regular season in the Big East, with five games on Saturday that will shape Big East Tournament seeding and in UConn’s case, could send them cascading toward the bubble. The Huskies can make their way to second place in the Big East with a victory over Seton Hall, combined with a Butler win over Creighton. A victory grants the Huskies the 3-seed, as would a loss and a St. John’s victory against Marquette. If the Red Storm lose and Seton Hall sweeps UConn, the Huskies would be the 4-seed in midtown Manhattan and draw a fresh Xavier, rather than the winner of a first-round game on Wednesday. If on the 3-line, it would be the winner of Villanova and either the aforementioned Pirates or DePaul. If up at No. 2, it would be the winner of Georgetown and either Seton Hall or DePaul.

Seton Hall has two wins since early December. Both came in overtime and one was against the Huskies. Of the Pirates’ other 17 conference games, 11 of them went the same: a double-digit defeat. These teams’ first game looked going that way, as UConn had a greater than 99 percent chance to win in the final minute and were up double-digits in the dying seconds. Seton Hall’s 0.9 percent minimum win probability is the 11th-least likely victory nationwide this season and third-lowest involving a power-conference team.

TV: FOX

Radio: UConn Sports Network

Location: Gampel Pavilion, Storrs, Connecticut

KenPom Predicted Score: UConn 75, Seton Hall 58 (94 percent win probability)

Series History

UConn fell to 49-24 against Seton Hall all-time with February’s defeat. This is the series’ 74th game, which is the 10th-longest all-time and is one more than St. John’s. It’s just eight contests behind Providence for the most-played series of any current Big East team, which the teams’ 1916-17 first game makes it the fifth-longest running against a current Division I team.

What to Watch For

Don’t do it again

The Huskies had it. They were up seven with 45 seconds left in regulation and couldn’t salt it away, then did the same in the extra session. It was just their fourth sub-200 loss in the KenPom era. Even aside from all that, it was an affront to good basketball, with a 25-22 halftime score before the offenses were able to figure it out.

The loss undoubtedly dropped UConn at least one seed line when it comes to NCAA Tournament positioning and a home defeat to these Pirates, which are 0-10 in true road games and 2-11 away from Prudential Center, would mean the program would get much closer to the bubble than it would like. The Huskies are not in danger of missing the tournament, even with a loss on Saturday, but the Jekyll and Hyde act is not ideal.

A sub-300 offense scored a point per possession in the first game and while Hassan Diarra was hobbled and Tarris Reed Jr. only played nine minutes, that’s still not an acceptable performance. UConn needs to lock it down and make this a laugher- and keep it that way- as the second season begins on Thursday.

Find the rotation

Saturday’s proceedings should be a solid opportunity to find the postseason rotation. Nine players checked in for UConn’s win over Marquette on Wednesday and odds are, that gets trimmed down to at least seven for tournament play. The Huskies played just one game with a final score inside 15 points last postseason and each 2023 NCAA Tournament victory came by at least 13 points, which means there isn’t a tremendous recent sample from which to draw, particularly when fouls to key players provide noise in the close games, but it isn’t likely that nine or 10 players will get in the game come the Big East Tournament.

If all goes as it should, Dan Hurley will be able to experiment and find out who his bench pieces are going to be. Samson Johnson and Reed Jr. will likely continue to work as a platoon at the five spot, which means it’ll be between Aidan Mahaney, Ahmad Nowell, Jayden Ross and Jaylin Stewart for the final spot or two.

The starters are already getting heavy workloads, as aside from the center spot, the other four starters are playing 30 minutes or higher per game as of late. Most of the heavy remaining minutes are going to Jaylin Stewart, but this is the other trio’s last chance to supplant the sophomore in the rotation.

Handle your business

With a win, UConn can guarantee itself a much easier path in the Big East Tournament. Landing in the bottom of the bracket keeps St. John’s away until a potential final, while it also prevents finishing in the 4/5 game. The top five finishers get a first-round bye and the Huskies wouldn’t have the advantage of rest. Compounding matters, the 5-seed in those scenarios would be Xavier, which will be hungry, as the Musketeers are on the bubble and also played UConn extremely tough, splitting the two matchups with a point differential of one.

Aside from the extra day of rest and one fewer game on the docket to claim a second consecutive Big East Tournament crown, the teams in line are easier. The 3-seed is the most likely secnario with a win and if that comes to pass, the Huskies would draw the winner of Villanova, which is locked in to the 6-seed, and Seton Hall, which they would have just topped.

Villanova would be a strength-on-strength matchup and the Wildcats haven’t been able to find momentum all season, while Seton Hall’s struggles have been discussed at length.

If UConn can find its way to No. 2, it’s either No. 7 Georgetown or No. 10 DePaul. The Huskies are a combined 4-0 against those teams and three of the four came by double-digits.

This, with a potential semifinal against Creighton, is a much better path than Xavier followed by (in all likelihood) St. John’s. For this and many other reasons, it would behoove UConn to get a win on Saturday.