Matteo Arnaldi is the underdog when he takes on 2022 Paris Masters champion Holger Rune in Tuesday’s round-one encounter.
The Italian has had a mixed year on the ATP Tour and enters his tournament opener looking to outfox the former champion and four-time tour winner.
Match preview
© Imago
Despite a commendable run to the US Open third round in August, Arnaldi’s form has been indifferent since losing to Jordan Thompson at Flushing Meadows.
Although he clinched success over Thiago Monteiro in the Davis Cup, the world No. 38 has suffered more losses than victories, evident by a 1-3 record before the final ATP 1000 event of the season.
His recent tournament in Basel ended in three sets against resurgent David Goffin in Switzerland, continuing his disappointing run on the tour.
While the Italian’s last three matches going to three sets suggest he has competed admirably, two have ended in defeat, with his only triumph a tournament-opening win in Shanghai over American Zachary Svajda.
He nearly took out Daniil Medvedev in that Masters event, notching the opening set before the Russian fought back to eke out a second-round victory, and that baseline competitiveness could give Rune a fright on Tuesday.
The Dane, a former champion in Paris, could not hit the heights in last year’s title defence, falling in the quarters to Novak Djokovic, whom he defeated in the previous year’s final in three thrilling sets.
Rune’s outstanding run to the title two years back saw him get the better of Hubert Hurkacz in round two, Andrey Rublev in the following round, top seed Carlos Alcaraz in the last eight and Felix Auger-Aliassime in the semis before a comeback victory over Djokovic in the championship match sealed an almost faultless tournament.
He enters the 1000 event in France with an 8-1 record in the ATP 1000 event and is the favourite in Tuesday’s round-one match as he bids to extend that record.
Rune’s latest bid for a first title of 2024 ended in the semis in Basel at the hands of eventual champion Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, whose cracking serve proved too difficult to handle for the world No. 13.
Back in Paris, the four-time ATP Tour champion hopes to record success for a fifth title overall and continue his run of winning one yearly crown since his first two years back.
Head To Head
Arnaldi and Rune meet for the first time on the tour, with the Italian player not expected to upset the Dane.
The world No. 38’s 28-24 record in 2024, significantly inferior to Rune’s 41-22, underscores the chasm between both players.
We say: Rune to win in two sets
Although Rune is the clear favourite, he could be forced into a third set by the Italian, who has been on the wrong end of consecutive three-setters in the last month.
We expect the Danish player to avoid an early exit in Paris and improve his 14-8 Masters 1000 record this season in Tuesday’s tournament opener.
