In an era where everyone knows everything and feels the need to yell at me about it on the Internet, certainty somehow stayed elusive in the Saturday night late pick 5 at Woodbine Mohawk Park. A sequence with winners at odds of 8-1, 7-1, 7-2, 6-1 and 11-1 was enough to wipe out the collective gambling braintrusts and spur a $36,603.28 carryover into the first five races Monday night.

This is remarkable considering we now have computer chips capable of solving equations so complex they would take until the heat death of the universe for guys like me to complete. But never fear my handicapping friends: I had ample time to analyze the Monday night early pick 5 sequence for Woodbine Mohawk Park because I no longer have to work on that equation that would take until the last star explodes to solve. But maybe in some ways, that would be an easier puzzle to solve than a horse race.

The early pick 5 Monday opens in the first race on the 12-race card, and though it features that carryover, the pool guarantee stays chilly at $75,000. However, don’t be surprised if this pool reaches $150,000 or more since, with a 15% takeout, this wager offers tremendously more expected value on the return than usual.

Race 1 | NW $2,570L5 CD | Pace | Purse: $11,000

The big question mark of this race is Dupree Hanover. He drops to the bottom level in his second start since scratching lame in early November and enters off what appears a textbook reacclimating mile with an admittingly unimpressive finish. But even against the level above this, he showed competitive speed and lands the right draw to get into a good spot if fitter on the comeback. Thankfully, we can see how the money is moving since this is the kickoff leg to give any indicators expecting possible improvement. 

Premier First Star could offer a good price if he plays to his 10-1 morning line. And looking at his unremarkable finishes against tougher competition, he could slide under the radar. He has the speed to get into a forward spot and should benefit from facing a weaker group here to maybe get a more significant check than the fifth-place finish he managed four starts back. 

The only other main contender in this race may be Lets Go Jude, though he has to show more early foot than he’s mustered in his four starts back on the track. When at this class level, he’s shown life in the stretch but only posted a noteworthy mile three starts ago when failing as the odds-on favorite. He exemplifies the issue of this race, which is that we do not have many horses to trust (something not unsurprising for bottom-level company). The “obvious” in these situations tend to truly stand out in the pools, but races like these do cater well to outsiders. Later races in this sequence appear as difficult, so perhaps going slim in this race is not a bad idea. 

Race 2 | NW $21,500 in 2024 CD | Trot | Purse: $12,000

Speaking of not trusting horses, I cannot trust any of the chalks inside of this race. Buckhead Ridge is inconsistent and drops off back-to-back clunkers, Villefranche As is notoriously win shy (but famously an exotic key) and Century Jaguar somehow has to outfoot his eight rivals to his inside when he tried that last start against tougher to get parked the mile. I’m doubtful these three will play as the favorites inside of this race, but we should hope they take money because that just makes the alternatives juicier. 

I’m real curious how So Not Cool will handle the return to the big oval off three solid efforts against similar at Flamboro Downs. He clearly had something amiss at the end of March forcing him to a hiatus until the end of November, in which he won handily in a 1:59 mile. Again this is not a super bunch of horses, so this could simply be a lateral move for a horse who has returned to form and also did take a mark of 1:56.1 earlier this year over this track, which would make him competitive at a 15-1 morning line. 

Head Of The Class is interesting simply because the connections take him off Lasix after two simply terrible miles. Perhaps the Lasix was causing him to tie up – something which seemed to only become an issue once he moved into the Anthony Montini barn in October while only going one good mile in his six starts up north. He also drops in class here and picks up the perennial greatest Canadian driver since Canuck sliced bread, so he’s a logical use inside of this race.

Other prices to consider here are Kenogami Coco, who takes a steep drop and showed competitive miles for Isabelle Darveau at Rideau Carleton. Zig Zag could be another price use here too since he raced against horses eons better than these when at Yonkers for trainer Jenny Melander. He likely needed that race over the track on Dec. 9 and lands a good draw to maybe get more involved. 

Race 3 | NW $4,700 L5 CD | Pace | Purse: $15,000

First I want to mention a possible price in Capitano Italiano, who is freelegged again after putting on hopples for some reason at Flamboro when he has raced freelegged as long as he’s been in Canada. He’s an honest and ultra consistent horse who is seemingly live every time he steps onto the track, but that’s also what makes him textbook bait. At least in this spot, he’s listed at 15-1 so he should offer value theoretically on the ticket, but he’s a horse to absolutely use at your own discretion. Which, in this game of public handicapping, I guess any horse I mention is for use at your own discretion. I don’t have to tell you what to do. 

A pair on the outside will likely anchor many tickets in this sequence, and for good reason. Hesincontrol and Magical Arthur thrive at this class level, though the trips they’ll travel from these draws are tough to foresee. Nonetheless, they are consistent competitors and deserve to be used in this race purely because they are in form and they don’t throw efforts that deviate from their norm. 

I have no clue about Ivy Park in here. This guy was in the North America Cup back in June and now has gone from Nancy Takter to trainer Tony Beaton in a NW $4,000 class. This has the same vibe of finding a John Deere at a Salvation Army, which is to say you both would absolutely buy it and also wonder “How did a John Deere end up at a Salvation Army?” This is not a question I have been trained to answer. My school only taught me woke things like set an alarm or you’ll sleep through class – when I was the one paying to be there!!!!! Can you believe the gall? 

This, like the first two in this sequence, is a goofy race. Though I don’t see the longer shots on offer having as much of a chance as in the first two, for whatever that is worth. 

Race 4 | Starters for purse $9,000 or less L3 | Trot | Purse: $12,000

In the participation trophy class, I 1,000 percent could see arguments for doing something like singling Southwind Russian. This is a field full of horses who yearn for anything under a mile, which in North American harness racing leaves them fat out of luck! 

Southwind Russian dominated similar competition over the five-eighths track at Rideau Carleton Raceway, and enters off a mile where he got a little carried away and faltered on a 10-length lead to lose at 1-2 by just about two lengths. While that is embarrassing, he nonetheless has the speed to get into the prime spot to win against a group that really does not like to close ground. The only main closing threats here may be the 5-2 morning-line favorite, Bucktober, and a 10-1 morning-line shot in Cactustotheclouds. You could more likely use Cactustotheclouds than Bucktober in this spot purely on value, but this is a race that could fall apart within a 10-foot pole or however the hell that phrase is used. 

The chump would buy this race with the “all” button. And while I do think this is another race where you cannot trust anyone to be a win factor, I know that those reading the wonderful website Horse Racing Nation dot com are not chumps. So I don’t even have to tell you to hit the all button here. That’s what makes our relationship truly beautiful. 

Race 5 | NW $8,000 L5 CD | Pace | Purse: $18,000

If you made it to the payoff leg, congratulations! I don’t mean in reading this piece, I don’t even write at that academic a level. This is a tough sequence for this Pick 5 carryover, which could also signal its a great bet. Unless by this point four favorites have crushed, then really just forget whatever I’m about to write next. 

And while I could take this opportunity to purge myself of dark and twisted secrets no one will read, I will not. I have a duty to the public to give them the best insight I possibly can, so my dark and twisted secrets can wait. 

This race has three horses who could smoke the field if on their best day, but the problem is telling whether this day is remotely close to their best day. Wheels On Fire is a Mohawk juggernaut. Clearly weathered from years battling at the Preferred and surviving a scary crash in the Mohawk Gold Cup a few years ago, this guy keeps fighting but also appears to still be looking for a path back to the winner’s circle. He enters here off a solid return mile to finish sixth and maybe lands a good trip from this draw. 

Codename Cigar Box remains one of the best Alberta exports of the last few years. He can ride with the top-class pacers over these grounds and here he is just two rungs above the bottom of the barrel while entering from an easy win at 1-2 against weaker at Flamboro Downs. Just know that if he opens the favorite, you’ll probably wish you were singled to him. 

The best price here could come from Delightful Leader, whose only question mark is that he makes his return from a month layoff. He has ample speed and has gone sharp miles against weaker competition, so this also serves as a class test since he finished 10th the last time he faced this bunch. But he lands the right draw for Borth to blast and put him on the front, where he has done his best work consistently. 

Here are some ways to possibly map your tickets for this early pick 5 carryover at Woodbine Mohawk Park:

Race 1

A | 3

B | 5,8

Race 2

A | 2,3 

B | 4,6

Race 3

A | 7,8

B | 4

Race 4

A | 5 

B | 6

Race 5

A | 3

B | 2,5

Horse Racing Nation coverage of harness races at Woodbine Mohawk is made possible in part through a sponsorship by Woodbine Entertainment Group.