Post-Week 9 Bowl Projections for the 2024 College Football Season

Posted by Admin October 29, 2024 Football

It seems hard to believe that in college football days past, bowl games would begin courting prospective teams in November (and sometimes earlier). The prospect of being stuck with a lemon with two straight losses to end the season? Much more attractive than getting beat out for a hot team by your rivals for eyeballs and sponsorships.

Thankfully, those days have gone by the wayside—with a handful of exceptions, every team will learn their fate at once on Dec. 8. The story of the 2024 season is far from over.

With that in mind, here’s what the bowl picture would look like if we were choosing teams today. A reminder that, as usual, the projections are determined by using the AP Poll and College Football Reference’s Simple Rating System as guides. A short string of commentary follows.

GAME	LOCATION	DATE	PROJECTED MATCHUP
Celebration Bowl	Atlanta	Dec. 14	Jackson State vs. North Carolina Central
Camellia Bowl	Montgomery, Ala.	Dec. 14	Rutgers vs. Georgia Southern
Frisco Bowl	Frisco, Texas	Dec. 17	Jacksonville State vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Boca Raton Bowl	Boca Raton, Fla.	Dec. 18	Connecticut vs. Texas State
LA Bowl	Inglewood, Calif.	Dec. 18	Washington vs. UNLV
New Orleans Bowl	New Orleans	Dec. 19	James Madison vs. Sam Houston
Cure Bowl	Orlando	Dec. 20	Michigan vs. Marshall
Gasparilla Bowl	Tampa	Dec. 20	Boston College vs. Florida
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 1	Austin	Dec. 20	No. 10 Texas A&M at No. 7 Texas
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 2	Columbus	Dec. 21	No. 11 Iowa State at No. 6 Ohio State
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 3	University Park, Pa.	Dec. 21	No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Penn State
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 4	Knoxville, Tenn.	Dec. 21	No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Tennessee
Myrtle Beach Bowl	Conway, S.C.	Dec. 23	Bowling Green vs. Louisiana-Monroe
Potato Bowl	Boise, Idaho	Dec. 23	Ohio vs. Colorado State
Hawaii Bowl	Honolulu	Dec. 24	Navy vs. Liberty
Detroit Bowl	Detroit	Dec. 26	Wisconsin vs. Toledo
Rate Bowl	Phoenix	Dec. 26	Minnesota vs. Baylor
68 Ventures Bowl	Mobile, Ala.	Dec. 26	Michigan State vs. Arkansas State
Birmingham Bowl	Birmingham	Dec. 27	Oklahoma vs. North Texas
Armed Forces Bowl	Fort Worth	Dec. 27	Maryland vs. Old Dominion
Liberty Bowl	Memphis	Dec. 27	Texas Tech vs. Vanderbilt
Holiday Bowl	San Diego	Dec. 27	SMU vs. Colorado
Las Vegas Bowl	Las Vegas	Dec. 27	South Carolina vs. Washington State
Fenway Bowl	Boston	Dec. 28	Tulane vs. North Carolina
Pinstripe Bowl	Bronx, N.Y.	Dec. 28	Nebraska vs. Duke
New Mexico Bowl	Albuquerque	Dec. 28	Coastal Carolina vs. San Jose State
Pop-Tarts Bowl	Orlando	Dec. 28	Syracuse vs. Cincinnati
Arizona Bowl	Tucson	Dec. 28	Western Michigan vs. Fresno State
Military Bowl	Annapolis, Md.	Dec. 28	Memphis vs. Georgia Tech
Alamo Bowl	San Antonio	Dec. 28	USC vs. Kansas State
Independence Bowl	Shreveport, La.	Dec. 28	California vs. Army
Music City Bowl	Nashville	Dec. 30	Illinois vs. LSU
ReliaQuest Bowl	Tampa	Dec. 31	Pittsburgh vs. Ole Miss
Sun Bowl	El Paso, Texas	Dec. 31	Virginia Tech vs. Arizona State
Citrus Bowl	Orlando	Dec. 31	Indiana vs. Alabama
Texas Bowl	Houston	Dec. 31	Arkansas vs. TCU
Fiesta Bowl	Glendale, Ariz.	Dec. 31	No. 12 Boise State or No. 5 Penn State vs. No. 4 BYU
Peach Bowl	Atlanta	Jan. 1	No. 10 Texas A&M or No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Georgia
Rose Bowl	Pasadena, Calif.	Jan. 1	No. 9 Notre Dame or No. 8 Tennessee vs. No. 1 Oregon
Sugar Bowl	New Orleans	Jan. 1	No. 11 Iowa State or No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Miami
Gator Bowl	Jacksonville	Jan. 2	Missouri vs. Clemson
First Responder Bowl	Dallas	Jan. 3	Virginia vs. West Virginia
Duke’s Mayo Bowl	Charlotte	Jan. 3	Iowa vs. Louisville
Bahamas Bowl	Nassau	Jan. 4	Eastern Michigan vs. Western Kentucky
Orange Bowl	Miami Gardens, Fla.	Jan. 9	Sugar Bowl winner vs. Peach Bowl winner
Cotton Bowl	Arlington, Texas	Jan. 10	Fiesta Bowl winner vs. Rose Bowl winner
National Championship	Atlanta	Jan. 20	Orange Bowl winner vs. Cotton Bowl winner

Combined years in FBS for James Madison and Sam Houston (New Orleans Bowl): five… The headliner is Dec. 20’s matchup between Texas A&M and Texas (CFP first round), potentially one of the most hotly anticipated postseason games of all time… The two teams are scheduled to meet on Nov. 30 in College Station, Texas; this playoff edition would be in Austin… Iowa State and Ohio State (CFP first round) have never met in football; neither have Boise State and Penn State (CFP first round)… Notre Dame and Tennessee (CFP first round) have met eight times and every matchup has, counterintuitively, been in November… Tulane and North Carolina (Fenway Bowl) were both in the Southern Conference from 1922 to ’32… Syracuse and Cincinnati (Pop-Tarts Bowl) are also ex-conference-mates, having clashed in the Big East from 2005 to ’12… Illinois and LSU (Music City Bowl) played in the Sugar Bowl after the 2001 season; the Tigers won a 47–34 shootout… Pittsburgh and Ole Miss (ReliaQuest Bowl) have a much less prestigious 21st-century bowl matchup under their belt; the Rebels won the 2013 BBVA Compass Bowl 38–17… Indiana and Alabama (Citrus Bowl) have also never met in football… Arkansas and TCU (Texas Bowl), ex-Southwest Conference rivals, have played 70 times as major schools… Potential CFP quarterfinals of note: Boise State-BYU (Fiesta Bowl), Notre Dame-Oregon (Rose Bowl; the Fighting Irish have been there just twice) and Tennessee-Oregon (Rose Bowl; the Volunteers haven’t been since 1944)… West Virginia and Virginia (First Responder Bowl), once fairly frequent opponents, have played just once this century—in the 2002 Continental Tire Bowl.