Post-Week 11 Bowl Projections for the 2024 College Football Season

Posted by Admin November 12, 2024 Football

Anyone hoping that the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff wouldn’t turn into a complete showcase of the SEC and Big Ten’s prowess has had a rough November.

On Saturday, Georgia Tech dealt Miami a devastating 28–23 loss in Atlanta that may have ended the ACC’s hopes of getting two teams into the field. That was followed in short order by Kansas’s surprising 45–36 upset of Iowa State, which mere weeks ago had designs on a first-round bye.

These events are bad news for anyone hoping to offset the complete stratification of college football along conference lines, but they are good news for those of us in the bowl-projection business. After another intriguing week, here—working off the AP Poll and College Football Reference’s Simple Rating System—is a look at how the bowl picture would shape up if the season ended today.

As usual, a string of commentary follows.

GAME	LOCATION	DATE	PROJECTED MATCHUP
Celebration Bowl	Atlanta	Dec. 14	Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
Camellia Bowl	Montgomery, Ala.	Dec. 14	Eastern Michigan vs. Coastal Carolina
Frisco Bowl	Frisco, Texas	Dec. 17	Georgia Southern vs. Western Kentucky
Boca Raton Bowl	Boca Raton, Fla.	Dec. 18	Miami-Ohio vs. Marshall
LA Bowl	Inglewood, Calif.	Dec. 18	Washington vs. UNLV
New Orleans Bowl	New Orleans	Dec. 19	James Madison vs. Liberty
Cure Bowl	Orlando	Dec. 20	Oklahoma vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Gasparilla Bowl	Tampa	Dec. 20	Arkansas vs. Virginia
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 1	Bloomington, Ind.	Dec. 20	No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Indiana
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 2	University Park, Pa.	Dec. 21	No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Penn State
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 3	Columbus	Dec. 21	No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State
College Football Playoff First Round—Game 4	Knoxville, Tenn.	Dec. 21	No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Tennessee
Myrtle Beach Bowl	Conway, S.C.	Dec. 23	Western Michigan vs. Louisiana-Monroe
Potato Bowl	Boise, Idaho	Dec. 23	Bowling Green vs. San Jose State
Hawaii Bowl	Honolulu	Dec. 24	Sam Houston vs. Fresno State
Detroit Bowl	Detroit	Dec. 26	Toledo vs. Michigan
Rate Bowl	Phoenix	Dec. 26	Cincinnati vs. Nebraska
68 Ventures Bowl	Mobile, Ala.	Dec. 26	Buffalo vs. Texas State
Birmingham Bowl	Birmingham	Dec. 27	Virginia Tech vs. North Texas
Armed Forces Bowl	Fort Worth	Dec. 27	Connecticut vs. Navy
Liberty Bowl	Memphis	Dec. 27	Texas Tech vs. Missouri
Holiday Bowl	San Diego	Dec. 27	Syracuse vs. Washington State
Las Vegas Bowl	Las Vegas	Dec. 27	Texas A&M vs. Colorado
Fenway Bowl	Boston	Dec. 28	Memphis vs. Boston College
Pinstripe Bowl	Bronx, N.Y.	Dec. 28	Pittsburgh vs. Rutgers
New Mexico Bowl	Albuquerque	Dec. 28	NC State vs. Arkansas State
Pop-Tarts Bowl	Orlando	Dec. 28	Iowa State vs. Duke
Arizona Bowl	Tucson	Dec. 28	Ohio vs. Colorado State
Military Bowl	Annapolis, Md.	Dec. 28	Tulane vs. North Carolina
Alamo Bowl	San Antonio	Dec. 28	California vs. Kansas State
Independence Bowl	Shreveport, La.	Dec. 28	Army vs. Baylor
Music City Bowl	Nashville	Dec. 30	Minnesota vs. LSU
ReliaQuest Bowl	Tampa	Dec. 31	Iowa vs. Clemson
Sun Bowl	El Paso, Texas	Dec. 31	Georgia Tech vs. Arizona State
Citrus Bowl	Orlando	Dec. 31	Illinois vs. Georgia
Texas Bowl	Houston	Dec. 31	South Carolina vs. TCU
Fiesta Bowl	Glendale, Ariz.	Dec. 31	No. 11 Ole Miss or No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 BYU
Peach Bowl	Atlanta	Jan. 1	No. 12 Boise State or No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 4 Miami
Rose Bowl	Pasadena, Calif.	Jan. 1	No. 9 Notre Dame or No. 8 Tennessee vs. No. 1 Oregon
Sugar Bowl	New Orleans	Jan. 1	No. 10 Alabama or No. 7 Indiana vs. No. 2 Texas
Gator Bowl	Jacksonville	Jan. 2	SMU vs. Vanderbilt
First Responder Bowl	Dallas	Jan. 3	West Virginia vs. East Carolina
Duke’s Mayo Bowl	Charlotte	Jan. 3	Wisconsin vs. Louisville
Bahamas Bowl	Nassau	Jan. 4	Northern Illinois vs. Jacksonville State
Orange Bowl	Miami Gardens, Fla.	Jan. 9	Fiesta Bowl winner vs. Sugar Bowl winner
Cotton Bowl	Arlington, Texas	Jan. 10	Peach Bowl winner vs. Rose Bowl winner
National Championship	Atlanta	Jan. 20	Orange Bowl winner vs. Cotton Bowl winner

Note South Carolina State replacing North Carolina Central as the MEAC’s emissary to the Celebration Bowl; it’d be the Bulldogs’ first appearance in the game since 2021, when they beat Jackson State 31–10… Georgia Southern joined the Sun Belt in 2014, the year after its potential Frisco Bowl opponent, Western Kentucky, left… Miami-Ohio and Marshall (Boca Raton Bowl) were MAC rivals for many years, most notably from 1997 to 2004 under legendary coaches Randy Walker, Terry Hoeppner and Bob Pruett.

Alabama and Indiana’s (CFP first round) meeting would be the Hoosier State’s second bowl-equivalent game, joining the national championship between Georgia and the Crimson Tide after the 2021 season… Ole Miss defeated P enn State (CFP first round) 38–25 in the Peach Bowl last season… Toledo is 1-0 all-time against Michigan (Detroit Bowl), having beaten a bad Wolverines team in 2008… Navy and Connecticut (Armed Forces Bowl) were together in the AAC from 2015 to ’19… Ditto for Missouri and Texas Tech (Liberty Bowl) in the Big 12, from 1996 to 2011, as well as Texas A&M and Colorado (Las Vegas Bowl) from ’96 to 2010… Memphis and Boston College (Fenway Bowl) could have wound up together in a proposed superconference; more on that in a minute… Pittsburgh and Rutgers (Pinstripe Bowl) were BIg East conference-mates from 1991 to 2012… Illinois and Georgia (Citrus Bowl) have never met in football.

Quarterfinal fun to look out for: the Nittany Lions’ first meeting with BYU (Fiesta Bowl) since 1992; Notre Dame and Oregon’s (Rose Bowl) first meeting since 1982; the Hoosiers’ and Texas’s (Sugar Bowl) first meeting since 1966… Not only could West Virginia and East Carolina (First Responder) have wound up together in the aforementioned superconference, their matchup would have added juice from the Mountaineers buying out of a 2026 road game against the Pirates… If chalk holds from a seeding standpoint, the Hurricanes and Ducks (Cotton Bowl) have not met since Miami won a 2–0 barnburner in 1958, while the Longhorns and Cougars (Orange Bowl) played last year.