We’ve got another exciting Eastern Conference matchup on Monday’s NBA schedule as the Detroit Pistons will host the Miami Heat. Detroit is 10-16 overall and 4-7 at home, while Miami is 13-10 overall and 5-6 on the road. The Pistons won the last meeting, 123-121, on Nov. 12 which ended a seven-game win streak for the Heat in the head-to-head series. The Pistons are 13-12-1 against the spread (ATS) in the 2024-25 NBA season, while Miami is 11-10-2 versus the line.

Tipoff is at 7 p.m. ET at the Little Caesars Arena in Detroit. Miami is favored by 4.5 points in the latest Heat vs. Pistons odds, per SportsLine consensus, and the over/under is 219 points. Before entering any Pistons vs. Heat picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions from the model at SportsLine. 

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. The model enters Week 9 of the 2024-25 NBA season on a sizzling 124-84 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning more than $3,000. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen huge returns. 

The model has set its sights on Miami vs. Detroit. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Heat vs. Pistons:

• Pistons vs. Heat spread: Pistons +4.5
• Pistons vs. Heat over/under: 219.5 points
• Pistons vs. Heat money line: Pistons: +155, Heat: -187
• Pistons vs. Heat picks: See picks at SportsLine
• Pistons vs. Heat streaming: FuboTV (Try for free)

Why the Pistons can cover

The Pistons wound up on the wrong side of 123-99 score at the hands of the Boston Celtics on Thursday, despite a quality game from Ron Holland, who went 11 for 14 en route to 26 points. It was a career-high for the No. 5 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, while the top overall pick from 2021, Cade Cunningham, had 18 points, eight rebounds and eight assists.

Cunningham is having a breakout year as he’s one of three players averaging at least a 23-7-7 stat line, along with Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic. Detroit is also much improved on the defensive end, as even though it is middle-of-the-pack in defensive rating, ranking 17th, that’s a lot better than its bottom-five ranking from a year ago. The Pistons also enter tonight’s matchup with recent spread success versus Miami, covering in their two matchups this season. See which team to pick here.

Why the Heat can cover

Meanwhile, the Heat entered their tilt with the Toronto Raptors on Thursday with three consecutive wins, but they’ll enter tonight’s game with four. Miami came out on top by a score of 114-104, with Tyler Herro leading the way with 23 points. Bam Adebayo had a complete stat line with 21 points, 16 rebounds, and five assists.

Miami has balance on both ends of the court, ranking in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating. Five players are averaging in double-figures, and the team is knocking down 38.4% of its 3-point attempts, the fifth-best mark in the league. The Heat also protect the ball and commit the third-fewest turnovers per game. Miami will also get to face a Pistons team missing veteran Tobias Harris (thumb), who is one of four Pistons averaging in double-figures. See which team to pick here.

How to make Pistons vs. Heat picks

The model has simulated Heat vs. Pistons 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Under, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Pistons vs. Heat, and which side of the spread cashes in over 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Heat vs. Pistons spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is on a 124-84 roll on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.