Pistons, Bucks, Pacers in battle for No. 4 seed in NBA playoffs: Predicting who gets it

Posted by author February 28, 2025 NBA

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Suddenly, the battle for the final spot of homecourt advantage in the Eastern Conference playoffs has become a three-horse race, thanks to the Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons, 33-26 and riding an eight-game winning streak, are half a game behind the 33-25 Milwaukee Bucks, in the Eastern Conference standings for the fifth seed. The Indiana Pacers (33-24), meanwhile, are just ahead in the fourth seed, the lowest seed with homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs.

It has been a stark turnaround for the Pistons, who finished with the NBA’s worst record at 14-68 last year, including a record-setting 28-game losing streak.

Led by new coach J.B. Bickerstaff and president of basketball operations Trajan Langdon, the Pistons are poised to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2018-19 and have a chance to finish as a top-four seed for the first time since they finished second in the East in 2007-08, which was also the most recent year the franchise won a playoff game. (They have lost an NBA-record 14 straight postseason games.)

Detroit has found the right mix to keep winning. Cade Cunningham has emerged as a go-to star, Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart have grown in the frontcourt, veterans Tobias Harris, Tim Hardaway Jr. and the historically hot Malik Beasley contribute nightly, and the defense has ratcheted up, thanks in part to Ausar Thompson.

Pistons playoff seeding odds

With 23 games remaining in the regular season, the Pistons are five games ahead of the Orlando Magic (29-32), who are seventh in the East. According to Basketball Reference, the Pistons entered Thursday with a 98.5% chance of reaching the postseason and a 91.1% chance of earning a top-six seed to avoid the play-in tournament games.

Basketball Reference puts the Pistons’ highest odds as finishing as the fifth seed (36.5%), followed by the sixth seed at 33.8%. Their odds of the fourth seed, which overwhelmingly favors the Pacers currently, are 19.6%, and the chances of reaching third are 1.3%. The Pistons are 5½ games behind the New York Knicks (38-20) for the third seed.

Pistons playoff tiebreaker scenarios with Bucks, Pacers

The tiebreakers favor the other two Central teams if the Pistons finish tied in the standings after 82 games. The Pistons are 1-3 against the Pacers, meaning they would have to finish at least one game ahead to leap Indiana. The Pistons are 0-2 against the Bucks but have two matchups remaining, in the final two games of the regular season in Detroit and then at Milwaukee.

If the Pistons win both over the Bucks and they finish tied in the standings, the tiebreaker would come down to win-loss percentage against division opponents. The Pistons are 4-9 against Central teams; the Bucks are 6-5.

Pistons’ remaining schedule

The Pistons have the 21st-toughest remaining schedule over their final 23 games, according to Tankathon.com, based on combined opponent win-percentage (.492) entering Thursday. Their toughest games remaining are against the Western Conference-leading Oklahoma City Thunder twice, the NBA-leading Cleveland Cavaliers once and the Denver Nuggets (38-21) on Friday in Detroit.

Pacers’ remaining schedule

The Pacers are right behind the Pistons with the 22nd-toughest remaining schedule (.487), with two games each against the Cavaliers and Bucks, and one game against the Thunder and Nuggets remaining.

Bucks’ remaining schedule

The Bucks have the sixth-toughest schedule with a remaining combined opponent winning percentage of .537. They play the Nuggets twice, the Pacers twice and the Los Angeles Lakers twice, along with one game against OKC and Cleveland.

NBA playoff race and predictions for final standings

The Pacers have been one of the best teams in the NBA since the calendar flipped to 2025 with a 17-6 record. In that same period, the Bucks are 18-11. The Pistons are 19-8 over the past two months.

Indiana will likely continue playing at the level of one of the best teams in the NBA, thanks to an offense that ranks in the top 10 in offensive rating and 15th in defensive rating. The Pistons are winning at a slightly slower pace than Indiana lately but will make the race interesting until the end. Milwaukee is 7-3 since trading Khris Middleton for Flint product Kyle Kuzma on Feb. 5.

The Pacers will finish 48-34 and earn the No. 4 seed.

The Pistons will finish 46-36, their best season in 17 years, and earn the No. 5 seed. That sets up a seven-game series with the Pacers in the 2-2-1-1-1 first-round playoff format.

The Bucks will finish 43-39 as the No. 6 seed and likely face the 3-seed Knicks.

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Jared Ramsey is a sports reporter for the Detroit Free Press. Follow Jared on X or Bluesky, and email him at jramsey@freepress.com.