Picking winners for all 39 college football bowl games using unique 'Quality Game' system

Picking winners for all 39 college football bowl games using unique ‘Quality Game’ system

Posted by Admin December 11, 2024 Football

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The college football postseason is a little different this year with the 12-team playoff, but it doesn’t change one indisputable fact — it’s bowl season, and that means it’s time to pick some winners.

For the ninth year, I am employing my “Quality Game” system to help me pick the bowl games and the playoff games. Who is going to win the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl between North Texas and Texas State? What about the Duke’s Mayo Bowl between Virginia Tech and Minnesota? I don’t know and you don’t know. That’s where the system comes in.

I run every team’s schedule through my “Quality Game” algorithm. A team can get a point total ranging from 3 (a road win over a ranked team) to -3 (a blowout loss to an unranked team) for each game. Add up all the games a team plays and that’s their QG score. The team that scores higher will be my pick to win the game. Pretty simple. But what is a “Quality Game?”

I’m looking at how many times when the team took the field did they play well. A QG can be a 40-point win over an unranked team or a 3-point loss to a ranked team, both get you 1 point. A narrow win over an unranked team? That will get you -1. I like to compare it to a Major League Baseball pitcher. I’m finding a college football team’s ERA, not their win-loss record.

The scoring system

3 points: A road win over a ranked team
2 points: A home or neutral win over a ranked team
1 point: Lopsided win (21 or more) over an unranked team
1 point: A narrow loss (8 points or less) to a ranked team
0 points: A regular win (9-20 points) over and unranked team
0 points: A regular loss (9-20 points) to a ranked team
-1 point: A narrow win (8 points or less) over an unranked team
-1 point: A lopsided loss (21 points or more) to a ranked team
-2 points: A loss (20 points or less) to an unranked team
-3 points: A lopsided loss (21 or more) to an unranked team

A couple of important caveats. A “ranked team” is a team ranked in the final college football Top 25 playoff rankings, not a team that was ranked at the time but isn’t any more. If your team played a non-FBS school, that game doesn’t count, unless it was a loss, then it’s -3. Also, this is strictly data-based. I’m not taking into account players skipping bowl games or injuries or things like that with my bowl picks. If you want to factor those things in, you can.

The numbers have been crunched and now I will reveal who are the lead-pipe locks to win their bowl games, which games the Vegas underdog will win, if the committee got the correct 12 teams in the playoffs, and finally the Quality Game pick for all 39 bowl games.

The locks

There are five bowl games with a QG point differential of 10 or more, which is a huge gap in this system. Pick these winners and don’t think twice. Make them your highest-confidence picks if you play in that kind of pool. The numbers in parenthesis are the team’s QG score, don’t confuse them with point spreads. Nothing in this exercise has to do with point spreads.

Sun Bowl: Louisville (5) over Washington (-9)
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Kansas State (3) over Rutgers (-10)
Citrus Bowl: South Carolina (7) over Illinois (-5)
68 Ventures Bowl: Bowling Green (-5) over Arkansas State (-16)
Gator Bowl: Mississippi (3) over Duke (-7)

The 11 games Vegas has wrong

Now this is where you win your pool, right here. Quite often people will fall back on the Vegas line to help them pick a game they aren’t sure about. The QG system disagrees with Vegas on 11 games this year. And remember, the QG system isn’t taking into account key players missing the games, so factor that in for yourselves. But all else being equal, try these upset picks to get a leg up on your opponent. In chronological order.

L.A. Bowl: UNLV (2) over Cal (-5). Vegas has Cal a 3.5-point favorite.
Playoff game: SMU (5) over Penn State (4). Vegas has Penn State an 8.5-point favorite. Note, game is at Penn State, not a neutral site.
Hawaii Bowl: South Florida (-6) over San Jose State (-9). Vegas has SJSU a 2-point favorite.
Armed Forces Bowl: Navy (1) over Oklahoma (-2). Vegas has Oklahoma an 8.5-point favorite.
Fenway Bowl: UConn (-8) over North Carolina (-12). Vegas has UNC as a 4.5-point favorite.
New Mexico Bowl: Louisiana (-6) over TCU (-9). Vegas has TCU as a 10.5-point favorite.
Arizona Bowl: Colorado State (-8) over Miami Ohio (-9). Vegas has Miami as a 3-point favorite.
Alamo Bowl: BYU (1) over Colorado (-3). Vegas has Colorado as a 3-point favorite.
Music City Bowl: Iowa (-2) over Missouri (-6). Vegas has Missouri as a 3.5-point favorite.
Texas Bowl: Baylor (1) over LSU (-1). Vegas has LSU as a 2.5-point favorite.
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Virginia Tech (-2) over Minnesota (-4). Vegas has Minnesota as a 4.5-point favorite.

BONUS UPSET PICK: The Military Bowl between East Carolina (-9) and N.C. State (-9) wound up a tie in the QG world. In those cases, I like to pick the Vegas underdog which in this case is East Carolina, a 5.5-point underdog to NC State according to Vegas.

Did the committee get it right?

With 12 teams in the playoff this year, I knew this would be a fascinating exercise to see if the top 12 teams in the QG system matched the committee’s. As you might imagine, they did not. Three teams left out of the top 12 finished inside the QG top 12, including a surprising four-loss team. Here are the top-scoring teams in QG this year.

No. 1: Oregon (14)
No. 2: Ohio State (10)
No. 3: Georgia (9)
No. 4: Boise State (8)
No. 5: South Carolina (7)
No. 6 (Tie): Texas (6)
No. 6 (Tie): Alabama (6)
No. 8 (Tie): SMU (5)
No. 8 (Tie): Notre Dame (5)
No. 8 (Tie): Louisville (5)
No. 11 (Tie): Indiana (4)
No. 11 (Tie): Penn State (4)
No. 11 (Tie): Clemson (4)

Who’s in, who’s out: So the QG system would’ve included South Carolina (7), Alabama (6) and the surprising Louisville (5). The teams they would replace would be Tennessee (2), Arizona State (-2) and one of the three teams tied for 11th. I’d nix Clemson because they played an extra game to reach that total.

Louisville? Yes the Cardinals were 8-4, but they are a perfect example of the QG system looking at quality efforts over win-loss record. Three of their losses were close games against ranked teams Notre Dame, SMU and Miami. So each loss was a +1 on their QG total, not a blemish. They also had a rare 3-pointer with a road win at Clemson. They did suffer a 2-point loss to Stanford, but lopsided wins over Jacksonville State, Pitt and Kentucky helped the cause, too. A team like Tennessee had a better record, but did not beat up on the unranked teams they played and had only one win over a ranked team.

Other totals of note: Ole Miss finished with a QG score of (3), Miami landed at (2). Army has a score of (3) and could add one point to join the four-point club if they beat Navy by 21 or more this weekend.

All the bowl picks

Here’s what you’ve been waiting for. The QG pick for every bowl game in chronological order. The team listed first is who you should pick. The number in parenthesis is that team’s QG point total. The bigger the gap, the more confident you should be.

Salute to Veterans Bowl: South Alabama (-11) over Western Michigan (-13)
Frisco Bowl: Memphis (-6) over West Virginia (-14)
Boca Raton Bowl: James Madison (-5) over Western Kentucky (-10)
LA Bowl: UNLV (2) over Cal (-5)
New Orleans Bowl: Georgia Southern (-9) over Sam Houston (-12)
Cure Bowl: Ohio (-2) over Jacksonville State (-6)
Gasparilla Bowl: Florida (0) over Tulane (-2)
Playoff: Notre Dame (5) over Indiana (4)
Playoff: SMU (5) over Penn State (4)
Playoff: Texas (5) over Clemson (4)
Playoff: Ohio State (10) over Tennessee (2)
Myrtle Beach Bowl: UTSA (-5) over Coastal Carolina (-13)
Potato Bowl: Northern Illinois (-8) over Fresno State (-11)
Hawaii Bowl: South Florida (-6) over San Jose State (-9)
GameAbove Sports Bowl: Pitt (-7) over Toledo (-10)
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Kansas State (3) over Rutgers (-10)
68 Ventures Bowl: Bowling Green (-5) over Arkansas State (-16)
Birmingham Bowl: Georgia Tech (-2) over Vanderbilt (-3)
Armed Forces Bowl: Navy (1) over Oklahoma (-2)
Liberty Bowl: Arkansas (-3) over Texas Tech (-4)
Holiday Bowl: Syracuse (-7) over Washington State (-8)
Las Vegas Bowl: Texas A&M (-2) over USC (-8)
Fenway Bowl: UConn (-8) over North Carolina (-12)
Pinstripe Bowl: Nebraska (-3) over Boston College (-5)
New Mexico Bowl: Louisiana (-6) over TCU (-9)
Pop-Tarts Bowl: Miami (2) over Iowa State (-7)
Arizona Bowl: Colorado State (-8) over Miami (Ohio) (-9)
Military Bowl: TIE-pick East Carolina (-9) over N.C. State (-9)
Alamo Bowl: BYU (1) over Colorado (-3)
Independence Bowl: Army (3) over Marshall (-6)
Music City Bowl: Iowa (-2) over Missouri (-6)
ReliaQuest Bowl: Alabama (6) over Michigan (-1)
Sun Bowl: Louisville (5) over Washington (-9)
Citrus Bowl: South Carolina (7) over Illinois (-5)
Texas Bowl: Baylor (1) over LSU (-1)
Gator Bowl: Mississippi (3) over Duke (-7)
First Responder Bowl: Texas State (-3) over North Texas (-9)
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Virginia Tech (-2) over Minnesota (-4)
Bahamas Bowl: Liberty (-8) over Buffalo (-9)

The playoff games: We don’t know the matchups yet for the second round of the playoffs, but here are the numbers to help you with your picks:

Fiesta Bowl: Boise State (8) over SMU(5)/Penn State (4)
Peach Bowl: Texas (5)/Clemson (4) over Arizona State (-2)
Rose Bowl: Oregon (14) over Ohio State (10)/Tennessee (2)
Sugar Bowl: Georgia (9) over Notre Dame (5)/Indiana (4)

So there you have it. All the picks, all the reasoning, all the data for you to win your bowl picks office pool without letting silly old things like your brain and heart get in the way.

I’d love to hear from you with any feedback (positive or negative) about this system. Do you have questions about how it works? How did I arrive at your favorite team’s point total? Anything. Shoot me an e-mail.

Shad Powers is a sports columnist for The Desert Sun. Reach him at shad.powers@desertsun.com.