Pennsylvania Derby guide: Odds, PPs, analysis for Parx feature
Photo:
Coady Photography & Eclipse Sportswire – edited
The Grade 1, $1 million Pennsylvania Derby is set for Saturday at Parx, and it drew a field of 11 3-year-olds with possible Breeders’ Cup aspirations.
Dragoon Guard is the 9-5 morning-line favorite as he steps up off consecutive Grade 3 scores in the Indiana Derby and West Virginia Derby. Stronghold is the 5-2 second choice from the far outside draw, looking to turn the tables after finishing second in the Indiana Derby when last seen.
The Pennsylvania Derby goes as race 13 of 14 at 6:10 p.m. EDT. FanDuel TV will have live coverage of the race.
Check out Horse Racing Nation’s free past performances page today for downloadable PPs for the Pennsylvania Derby and more courtesy of our partners at Brisnet.
We also have Super Screener picks and analysis for the Pennsylvania Derby as well as recent top speed figures for each contender with Beyers courtesy of Daily Racing Form.
Penn Derby best speed figures
| Post | Horse | ML | Beyer | TimeformUS | HRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Doc Sullivan | 12-1 | 91 | 112 | 100 |
| 2 | Seize the Grey | 5-1 | 100 | 123 | 101 |
| 3 | Lonesome Boy | 20-1 | 79 | 107 | 96 |
| 4 | Timeout | 10-1 | 95 | 115 | 99 |
| 5 | Protective | 8-1 | 95 | 119 | 106 |
| 6 | Just Step On It | 15-1 | 90 | 119 | 98 |
| 7 | Dragoon Guard | 9-5 | 92 | 121 | 100 |
| 8 | Unmatched Wisdom | 8-1 | 99 | 120 | 105 |
| 9 | Who’s the King | 20-1 | 87 | 113 | 103 |
| 10 | Uncle Heavy | 12-1 | 87 | 111 | 97 |
| 11 | Stronghold | 5-2 | 89 | 114 | 93 |
Seize the Grey is expected to go to the lead and set a fast pace in the Pennsylvania Derby with Lonesome Boy, Dragoon Guard, and Who’s the King all giving chase in the second flight.
Pace Projector appears courtesy of TimeformUS.
HRN picks for Penn Derby
This week’s Super Screener has circled the Grade 3 Turf Monster Stakes on the Pennsylvania Derby undercard with top value play Talented Man.
“His longer odds are attributed to the fact that he is being evaluated off his two recent dirt races,” Shutty notes about Talented Man. “Being back on turf, we are going to see improvement. How much is difficult to calculate, but getting back to a pressing style here is ideal for this turf course, on which he is 2-for-2.”
Buy the special Now through Breeders’ Cup Super Screener package for just $97, a nearly $400 value, and get analysis for the Pennsylvania Derby and more.
Ed DeRosa’s Pennsylvania Derby fair odds believe that Stronghold can turn the tables on Dragoon Guard on Saturday as the fresher horse.
DeRosa also has Cotillion Stakes fair odds, and he believes there’s a money-making opportunity even with Thorpedo Anna figuring to be odds-on. Mystic Lake is a live long shot and can at least get second.
What follows is a list of recent speed figures for the Cotillion contenders, illustrating why Thorpedo Anna will be such a short price.
Cotillion best speed figures
| Post | Horse | ML | Beyer | TimeformUS | HRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Power Squeeze | 4-1 | 92 | 113 | 94 |
| 2 | Scalable | 10-1 | 89 | 109 | 99 |
| 3 | Tarifa | 5-1 | 95 | 109 | 96 |
| 4 | Everland | 20-1 | 84 | 107 | 96 |
| 5 | Sidamara | 6-1 | 83 | 106 | 96 |
| 6 | Thorpedo Anna | 4-5 | 111 | 129 | 112 |
| 7 | Gun Song | 10-1 | 88 | 112 | 99 |
| 8 | Mystic Lake | 12-1 | 95 | 122 | 101 |
For more Cotillion analysis, check out Laurie Ross and Ashley Tamulonis’s Head to Head picks.
J. Keeler Johnson’s latest Horses to Watch column believes Unmatched Wisdom is a logical Pennsylvania Derby contender if you draw a line through a dull effort in the Travers. Matt Shifman’s Pennsylvania Derby picks echo those sentiments.
Parx track announcer Jessica Paquette joined the Ron Flatter Racing Pod to discuss the Pennsylvania Derby, Cotillion Stakes and Greenwood Cup.
Here’s the field for the Pennsylvania Derby:
| Post | Silks | Horse / Sire | Rating | Trainer / Jockey | Last Start / Next Start | Morn. Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
|
Doc Sullivan Solomini |
0.00 | 12-1 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
||||||
| 2 |
|
Seize The Grey Arrogate |
7.71 | 5-1 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
||||||
| 3 |
|
Lonesome Boy Nationhood |
0.00 |
5th, Salvatore M. DeBunda Sprint S. |
20-1 | |
|
Last Race Next Race |
5th, Salvatore M. DeBunda Sprint S. |
|||||
| 4 |
|
Timeout Curlin |
6.19 | 10-1 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
||||||
| 5 |
|
Protective Medaglia d’Oro |
5.12 | 8-1 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
||||||
| 6 |
|
Just Step On It Accelerate |
5.79 |
2nd, Smarty Jones S. |
15-1 | |
|
Last Race Next Race |
2nd, Smarty Jones S. |
|||||
| 7 |
|
Dragoon Guard Arrogate |
6.93 | 9-5 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
||||||
| 8 |
|
Unmatched Wisdom Cairo Prince |
6.39 | 8-1 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
||||||
| 9 |
|
Who’s The King Not This Time |
0.00 | 20-1 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
||||||
| 10 |
|
Uncle Heavy Social Inclusion |
6.19 |
3rd, Smarty Jones S. |
12-1 | |
|
Last Race Next Race |
3rd, Smarty Jones S. |
|||||
| 11 |
|
Stronghold Ghostzapper |
7.51 | 5-2 | ||
|
Last Race Next Race |
||||||
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