Keeneland kicks off the 2024 fall
meet on Saturday with five graded stakes, including the $600,000 Grade 1 Claiborne
Breeders’ Futurity for juvenile colts. 

The Keeneland track surface
switch from Polytrack back to dirt in 2014 returned the 1 1/16 mile event to
its former glory as a significant prep race for the Breeders’
Cup Juvenile.

Seven of the last eight Futurity
winners to compete in the Juvenile hit the board, and three, Classic Empire
(2016), Essential Quality (2020), and Forte (2021), earned year-end
championships.

The Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity
is also a 2025
Kentucky Derby points race, offering a scale of 10-5-3-2-1 to the top
four finishers. Since 2024, only two Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity made it into
the Derby starting gate, and two, Essential Quality (2020) and Classic Empire
(2016), finished fourth. Classic Empire returned to earn second place in the
Preakness Stakes (G1).

This year’s Claiborne Breeders’
Futurity attracted eleven colts and geldings, led by Hopeful Stakes (G1)
runner-up Ferocious.  

The Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity
is scheduled as race nine of 11 on Keeneland’s opening Saturday card, with a post
time of 5:16 PM ET.

Let’s review the field.

1. Ferocious 8-5
(Flatter – Napier, by Midnight Lute)

Ferocious lost focus and drifted in the stretch of the
Hopeful Stakes before picking up momentum and running along with the passing
Chancer McPatrick. Ferocious kept his head tilted to watch his rival and showed
no interest in passing; he just wanted to run with a buddy. Ferocious earned a
98 Brisnet speed rating, the highest in this field. Ferocious gets Luis Saez in
the irons, his third jock in as many starts.

Gustavo Delgado gave Ferocious a trio of works for the Claiborne
Breeders’ Futurity, including a pre-race bullet five furlongs in 59.2 seconds over
Saratoga’s training track.

Pedigree: Ferocious may handle a mile to middle
distances.

He is the second competitor and winner out of a half-sister
to Grade 1-winning sprinter Obligatory. Ferocious’ third generation includes
Country Grammer, hero of the 2022 Dubai World Cup (G1), and French Group 1 winning
sprinter/miler Etoile Montante.

Ferocious breaks from the rail for the second time in his
career. He rates well and is the class of the race. However, there’s the
possibility that he would rather buddy up instead of passing others. Contender.

2. Saratoga
Cruiser 50-1 (Catalina Cruiser – Aristra, by Afleet Alex)

A New York-bred Saratoga Cruiser gets a class check after
beating maidens at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Although he rallied to win by a
half-length, his pedestrian time of 1:40.24 and 13.82-second final furlong for a mile
says this Jeff Engler trainee is out of his depth. His 66 Brisnet speed rating
is the lowest in this field.

Pedigree: Saratoga Cruiser may handle a mile to
middle distances.

He’s a half-brother to multiple stakes placed Attachment
Rate, who won or placed up to 1 1/16 miles. There’s plenty of quality in the
second generation of his distaff line, including 2017 Champion 2-year-old filly Caledonia
Road, Grade 1-winning turf miler Data Link and Grade 1-winning veteran
handicap horse Hymn Book.

Saratoga Cruiser has a classy pedigree but needs substantial
improvement to be competitive here. Pass.

3. Optical 30-1 (City of Light –
Espressoandacheck, by Medaglia d’Oro)

Optical is bred to go long and he got the job done in his
fourth start when switching back to dirt after a pair of nondescript finishes
on the lawn.

In a 1-mile maiden special weight event at Churchill,
Optical showed speed breaking from post nine to clear eight rivals, then
relaxed nicely on the lead for James Graham. Optical athletically cut the
corner and cruised home by 14 impressive lengths. The Keith Desormeaux trainee
completed a mile in 1:35.65 with an excellent 12.12-second final furlong. He earned a
career-best 82 Brisnet rating and a 98 late-pace figure.

Optical turns around in 17 days but breezed a pre-race 4
furlongs in 48 seconds flat.

Pedigree: A first foal, Optical has a classic
oriented pedigree.

His second dam, Daring Dancer, is a multiple-graded turf
miler. The extended female family includes multiple Grade 1 winning turf router
Ticker Tape, 

There’s concern about whether Optical is a need-the-lead
type or if he’ll be happy rating since he lost ground in his four previous
starts while racing off the pace.

Although Race Lens shows that only two of Desormeaux’s 22
last-out maiden 2-year-old winners were successful in their next start, 41 percent hit
the board. That’s good enough for me. Live long shot.

4. Handsome Pants
10-1 (Daredevil – Miss A. Bomb, by Lemon Drop Kid)

Handsome Pants is the only colt in the field with a victory
at 1 1/16 miles on dirt. He made a couple of notable moves throughout his
Churchill debut.

Initially, he settled in mid-pack, then worked his way
through traffic. He was in tight around the turn and had to steady slightly
before bulling his way through a seam at the top of the lane, brushing with the
3-5 favorite, Kinetic Control. Handsome Pants willed that one into submission
and opened up by 1 1/2 lengths.

The Ken McPeek trainee bested ten other maidens, clocking
the 1 1/16 miles in 1:45.11 with a 6.33-second final half furlong, good enough for a
91 speed rating and a 95 late-pace figure.

Handsome Pants returned to breeze four furlongs in 48.6 seconds in
company with recent maiden winner Look to the Cross. They traveled as a team,
although Handsome Pants drew clear on the gallop out without being asked.

Pedigree: Handsome Pants may handle middle to classic
distances.

His three-quarter sister, A Little Bit Sassy (More Than
Ready), is a stakes winner and multiple graded placed turf miler. She produced stakes-winning
turf sprinter/milers Sumpter and Pizzazz. Handsome Pants’s extended female
family includes 2000 Preakness hero Red Bullet.

Handsome Pants has class and showed maturity in his debut.
Ken McPeek is successful 16 percent of the time with last-out maiden winners, plus he
teamed with Brian Hernandez, Jr. to capture the 2021 edition of the Breeders’
Futurity with Rattle N Roll. Contender.

5. East Avenue 3-1
(Medaglia d’Oro – Dance Music, by Ghostzapper)

East Avenue lived up to his illustrious billing as the 6-5
favorite in his Ellis Park debut. He destroyed nine other maidens in a paid
workout, winning by ten lengths. He was tapped and was in full flight through
the stretch.

It’s a question of “what did he beat?” since seven
rivals returned and failed to hit the board in their next outing. In any event,
East Avenue zipped six furlongs in 1:10.56, with a sharp 12.38-second final furlong.
That was good enough to earn the Godolphin homebred a 90 Brisnet rating and a
95 late-pace figure.

Conditioned by Brendan Walsh, East Avenue recorded four
breezes for the Breeders’ Futurity, including a second-to-last four furlongs in
47.00 flat at Churchill Downs. 

Pedigree: A first foal, East Avenue may handle middle
to classic distances.

His unraced dam is a half-sister to 2023 champion older dirt male and Horse of the Year Cody’s Wish. Dance Music’s full brother Endorsed is
a multiple graded winning miler who placed twice at 1 1/8 miles. Another full
brother, Bocephus, is a stakes-winning miler and a stakes-placed sprinter. East
Avenue’s second dam Dance Card won the 1 1/8 mile Gazelle Stakes (G1) and was
third behind Groupie Doll and Judy the Beauty in the 2013 Breeders’ Cup Filly
and Mare Sprint.

20 percent of Walsh’s 2-year-old last-out maiden winners returned
to the winner’s circle, and he sent Maxfield to win the Breeders’ Futurity in
2019. East Avenue should improve off his victory at Ellis Park, although he
beat a soft field. Contender.

6. Filoso 12-1
(City of Light – Kenda, by Bodemeister)

Filoso won his second start despite having to steady about
four times during the race. He showed athleticism cutting the corner around the
far turn and opened up by 3 1/2 lengths in a one-mile contest at Saratoga. Despite
winning by open lengths, Filoso completed the mile in 1:39 with a 13.17 final
furlong, earning an 87-speed rating but a 94 late-pace figure. 

Half of his eight rivals returned, with one placing second
in their next start.

The Chad Summers trainee returned with a sharp five-furlong
move in 1:00.85 and 4 furlongs in 48:48 over Belmont’s training track.  

Pedigree: Filoso may handle middle to classic
distances.

He is the second foal and winner out of Kenda, a
stakes-winning turf sprinter. Her half-sister bore Grade 1-winning
sprinter/miler Domestic Product.

Summers has one last-out maiden winner from 18 starters;
however, 44 percent have hit the board. Filoso encountered trouble in his last start, but
he is well bred and gets John Velazquez in the saddle. However, he’ll need to
improve to visit the winner’s circle but is worth a look for the exotics.

7. Mesero 15-1 (Not
This Time – Lemon Liqueur, by Exchange Rate)

Stuck in traffic through most of the one-mile Iroquois
Stakes (G3), Mesero made a tepid late move to place fourth, beaten 7 3/4 lengths
by Jonathan’s Way. He was mentally tired down the stretch, going up and down
instead of forward, and wasn’t interested in gaining ground on the third-place
finisher.  

Mesero’s Brisnet rating improved to 84 from the 79 figure he
received while winning his debut at Ellis Park.

Pedigree: Mesero may handle middle to classic
distances.

His half-sister Bleecker Street captured the 2022 New York
Stakes (G1) as a turf router, as well as three Grade 2 or Grade 3 stakes over
the lawn from 1 1/16 to 1 1/8 miles. Their dam is a stakes-placed sprinter. The
extended family includes Grade 1-winning turf veteran Gabriel Charles.

This Dale Romans trainee needs considerable improvement to
compete against the best. Pass.

8. Big Boat 20-1 (Nyquist
– Irish Presence, by Midnight Lute)

Big Boat cruised to a 3 1/2 length victory in his Churchill
Downs debut after chasing swift early fractions. He hit the front in
mid-stretch, passing the leg-weary pacesetter, and held off the fast-closing
second-place horse. Big Boat sailed six furlongs in 1:09.98, earning a 12.44-second
final quarter. Despite the 90 speed rating and 93 late-pace figure, the race
wasn’t visually impressive.

James DiVito gave Big Boat a slow five-furlong breeze of
1:03.40 at Hawthorne as a prep for the Breeders’ Futurity.

Pedigree: Big Boat has a miler pedigree.

Big Boat’s three half-siblings are winners, although none
were successful beyond a mile. His half-sister Elle’s Town is a multiple-stakes
placed sprinter/miler on dirt and turf. Their dam is a stakes winner and Grade
3-placed miler.

James DiVito’s last out 2-year-old winners are winless in their last five starts, but
two placed. Big Boat’s speed ratings are average, but the 1 1/16-mile distance
is suspect. He was workmanlike in his debut, and he could close for a minor piece of the exotics.

9. Tenacious
Leader 8-1 (Not This Time – Diamonds and Rust, by Curlin)

Tenacious Leader captured his second start over Saratoga’s
fast main track in an off-the-turf event. He proved capable on the lawn in the
With Anticipation Stakes (G3).

His running style was the same in both races; he was content
to track the pacesetter from second and challenged around the turn.

However, after putting away his rival in the With
Anticipation, Tenacious Leader had to contend with Zulu Kingdom, who had
slipped through on the rail. Once Tenacious Leader caught sight of that rival,
he gathered himself and closed with each stride, missing by a neck.

The Todd Pletcher trainee’s speed rating regressed slightly
from his maiden victory of 93 to an 88, but not sufficiently enough to be a
concern. Tenacious Leader returned to the work tab with two four-furlong breezes
in 49 seconds, typical of Pletcher’s charges.

Pedigree: Tenacious Leader may handle middle to
classic distances.

He’s the first blacktype earner in his immediate family. His
unraced dam is a half-sister to the multiple graded winner War Story, who was
successful from 1 1/16 miles to 1 1/2 miles on dirt, including the 2017 Brooklyn
Handicap (G2). He competed for seven years and earned $3,271,996 in 40 starts.

Todd Pletcher has earned four Breeders’ Futurity trophies
since 2013, including back-to-back victories in 2022 and 2023. In 2013, We Miss
Artie placed sixth in the With Anticipation Stakes and won the Breeders’
Futurity, although the race was held on Polytrack. Race Lens shows that over
the last five years, Pletcher has two wins and one in the money from seven
starters at Keeneland with 2-year-olds shifting from turf to dirt.

Tenacious Leader may be used early to get a stalking
position from his outside post; however, he flashed talent in his last two
starts and is worth including on your tickets as a win and exotics play.

10. Dapper Moon 9-2
(Malibu Moon – Fashioned Gem, by Old Fashioned)

Dapper Moon hopped at the start in his Saratoga debut,
causing him to break last in the nine-horse field. He was green down the lane
but came flying late to grab second place. 

Dapper Moon had a better trip in his next start but was
still green, and unsure down the lane while he was in the middle of the track
and away from other horses. He was going up and down with a choppy stride, his
mind busy watching a tiring rival on the rail; however, once he passed, Dapper
Moon regained focus, smoothed his gait, and opened up to win by five lengths.

The Dallas Stewart trainee completed seven furlongs in 1:24.04,
with a 13.08-second final furlong. He earned a 93 speed rating with a 92 late-pace
figure. Stewart gave Dapper Moon a trio of works at Churchill, including a
second-to-last five furlongs in 1:00.2.

Seven of Dapper Moon’s rivals returned, with one finishing a
distant third in his next outing.

Pedigree: Dapper Moon may handle middle distances.

Dapper Moon is the second foal and winner in his immediate
family. His half-sister is a sprinter. There’s plenty of black type in the
second and third generations of Dapper Moon’s distaff line, including
Alcibiades (G1) heroine My Conquestadory and the brilliant multiple graded
winning sprinter Kelly Kip, who set three new track records during his 31-race
career.

Dallas Stewart’s 2-year-olds are six wins from 29 starts with six in the money at Keeneland over the last five years. Dapper Moon has tactical
speed; however, I’m concerned about his immaturity. Exotics.

11. Ready for Peace
30-1 (More Than Ready – Peace Process, by War Front)

Ready for Peace hopes to shake things up after a victory at Colonial
Downs and a distant third-place finish in the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile. He
showed tactical speed, pressing the pace in his debut and winning by 2 3/4
lengths, then closed from sixth place in the Juvenile Mile. However, his speed
ratings are in the 70s.

The Ignacio Correas, IV trainee, posted two solo works at
Keeneland. He moved comfortably over the dirt.

Pedigree: Ready for Peace may handle middle
distances.

Ready for Peace is a sixth foal and the third winner in his
immediate family. His half-brother Joevia is a stakes-winning miler and was
third in the 2019 Belmont Stakes (G1). A half-sister, Specially, is a stakes
placed sprinter.

Correas has a 12 precent win rate with the turf-to-dirt angle, with
41 percent hitting the board. Ready for Peace may improve with the surface switch, but
probably not enough to be competitive this time around. Pass.

Analysis

Keeneland switched from Polytrack back to dirt in 2014. In the
last decade, all but three Breeders’ Futurity heroes won their previous start
and nine of the ten gained ground in that race. Three exited the Hopeful and
one the Arlington-Washington Futurity, while the rest were last-out maiden
winners.

The Breeders’ Futurity always attracts a large field,
ranging from eight to 13 horses. The closers and mid-pack runners typically have
the advantage. One pacesetter won, while three pace pressers (within two
lengths) were successful.

Favorites have won five times, and only one in the last
decade finished worse than third. Winners broke from posts four to eleven, but
don’t ignore those breaking from the rail; seven of the last ten finished
second through fourth. The last Breeders’ Futurity winner to exit the rail was
Joha in 2012.

In a large, contentious field where most of the contenders
have won or placed, several have a shot to hit the board.

East Avenue or Optical may set the pace. Optical isn’t as
effective pressing. Tenacious Leader, Dapper Moon, and Ferocious may press or
tailgate the speed while the rest sort themselves out.  

Ferocious fits the profile of previous Futurity winners. He
gained ground for second place in the Hopeful, a key prep. He can settle a few
lengths off the pace and has the speed to maneuver.

Dapper Moon showed tactical speed in both starts.

A closer, Handsome Pants is the only colt in the field with
a victory at 1 1/16 miles on dirt.

Tenacious Leader switches back to dirt. Although he’s pressed
the pace in his last two starts, he’s been professional and could rate farther
off the pace.  

Others in with a shot include Dapper Moon, Filoso, Optical, and
East Avenue. Big Boat could be a long shot bomb.

Selections

Handsome Pants (10-1)

Ferocious (8-5)

Tenacious Leader (8-1)

East Avenue (3-1)