Golf betting tips: Pebble Beach round one

1pt treble McNealy, Scott and Cantlay to win their two-balls at 5/1 (General)

2pts Adam Scott to beat Gary Woodland at 21/20 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Low scoring was the order of the day across both Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill, where more good weather means more of the same is anticipated in Friday’s second round, before Saturday winds add a welcome dimension.

Without wind, Pebble Beach is a bit of a pushover these days and it played to almost four strokes under par. Spyglass, the tougher of the two, was more than a stroke and a half higher so it was in the end surprising to see Russell Henley overcome that to lead.

Henley has just one top-10 finish in 35 previous starts in California, but his short-game was on fire and means he’s now part of a market packed with world-class players. Scottie Scheffler’s five-under 67 at Spyglass was a nice reintroduction and he remains favourite over Rory McIlroy, who halved in price following an opening 66 which featured a memorable hole-in-one.

Four first-round selections yielded two winners, a tie and a loss, and therefore nothing returned. Unfortunately, Justin Lower got up and down from 180 yards on his final hole, enough to match Andrew Novak who had, in fairness, got up and down from just 20 yards closer.

The widest discrepancy between Pebble Beach records today comes from MAVERICK MCNEALY and Nico Echavarria and, allowing for the fact the latter has only played here once, the former still looks a strong bet at around 5/6.

Prior to his RSM Classic win in November (another multi-course, coastal event), McNealy had gone closest here at Pebble Beach when second to Daniel Berger. He’s played the course many, many times having lived close by growing up and, after a bogey-free 68 at Spyglass, looks a prime candidate to go low today.

It was good for McNealy backers to see his approach play firing and that’s another edge he has over Echavarria. The Colombian is one of the best putters around and therein lies the risk in taking him on, but his long-game wasn’t great yesterday.

Echavarria’s only previous Pebble Beach round was a five-over 77 and he’ll do well to beat a genuine course specialist this evening.

There are reasons to be wary of opposing Gary Woodland, but to call Sky Bet’s decision to make his two-ball with ADAM SCOTT each-of-two an overreaction would be a gross understatement.

This is world number 21 versus world number 188, or 28th versus 121st if you take DataGolf‘s rankings, and Scott is much better around Pebble Beach than he is Spyglass. Yesterday’s poor opening round was the consequence of a shocking putting day and if he can avoid another, he can break 70 with a degree of ease.

Woodland of course won the US Open around Pebble Beach and shot 68 thanks to an excellent ball-striking day. However, consistency isn’t a strong suit and there’s just no path I can find that leads you to making these two players equal. Anything upwards of 5/6 about Scott is a strong bet.

Chris Kirk loves it here and is a fair option to beat Will Zalatoris just as he did on Thursday but I’m wary of opposing Zalatoris with a player who hasn’t been pulling up trees lately, so it’s off to Spyglass Hill where the best options look to be Taylor Pendrith (vs Si Woo Kim), Beau Hossler (vs Jake Knapp), and PATRICK CANTLAY, who is paired with Robert MacIntyre.

Pendrith looks the right price at 10/11 and Hossler hasn’t been dangled at a tempting enough one given that he was comprehensively outplayed by Knapp yesterday, so it’s Cantlay who gets the vote at the same kind of price.

He was six-under at Pebble Beach and now goes to Spyglass, where among those with six or more rounds he ranks second only to Hossler in strokes-gained on a per-round basis.

MacIntyre debuts and while it didn’t stop him carding a good score on day one, that was at Pebble Beach where his short-game was very good. More of the same ball-striking and this tougher course will be a challenge, whereas for Cantlay it’s one he relishes.

One final discrepancy in terms of course records is Nick Taylor versus Lee Hodges, the former holding a three-stroke edge (per round) based on what they’ve done so far. Taylor has 10 rounds here under his belt, too, but Hodges is playing so well at the moment that opposing him isn’t all that appealing.

Posted at 0905 GMT on 31/01/25

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