Sixteen years after Jo-Wilfried Tsonga lifted the trophy, France is one win away from finally producing another homegrown champion at the Rolex Paris Masters.

An improbable, captivating run by Ugo Humbert has him in the final on Sunday afternoon, with Alexander Zverev standing in his way of the title. They will be facing each other for the third time in their careers and the head-to-head series is tied up at one apiece. Humbert prevailed 7-6(4), 3-6, 6-3 on the grass courts of Halle in 2021 before Zverev survived a 6-4, 6-7(3), 7-6(5) thriller at this same Paris tournament last year during second-round action.

Humbert ended the 2023 campaign in spectacular form and he is doing the same thing 12 months later. The 18th-ranked Frenchman positively loves fast indoor hard courts, so perhaps this result isn’t as big of a surprise as it may seem–especially considering that he is benefiting from a significant home-court advantage amidst a consistency raucous atmosphere. A red-hot Humbert has advanced this week with victories over Brandon Nakashima, Marcos Giron, Carlos Alcaraz, Jordan Thompson, and Karen Khachanov.

Success in the greater Paris area is nothing new for Zverev. The third-ranked German finished runner-up at this event in 2020 and also reached the 2024 French Open final before falling to Alcaraz in five sets. He needs one more win to capture a title in the French capital after taking out Tallon Griekspoor, Arthur Fils, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Holger Rune.

Although the rankings would suggest otherwise, in this particular situation you could argue that Humbert’s best is better than Zverev’s best. If Humbert plays like he did against Alcaraz, he will almost certainly get the job done. The question is if he can deliver the goods in what is the biggest match of his career. Fans inside Bercy Arena–which is hosting the Paris Masters for the last time–will do their best to make sure it happens, and in turn could frustrate Zverev.

Humbert’s variety on serve and ball-striking from the back of the court could be enough for an upset on a surface that is good for the favorite but absolutely ideal for the underdog.

Pick: Humbert in 3