Another Sunday afternoon in the NFL has passed with more surprising results. The Washington Commanders sit alone in firts place in the NFC West while the Minnesota Vikings are 4-0 and run the NFC North. 

The more things change, the more they stay the same. The Kansas City Chiefs lead the AFC West by two games and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still in control of the NFC South. The San Francisco 49ers and Houston Texans also righted the ship this week after poor losses last week.

With an interesting slate of Week 4 games, here are the overreactions from the Sunday afternoon matchups. Which ones are overreactions and which are reality? 

Commanders are going to win the NFC East

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

The Commanders even being in the conversation through four games is impressive, especially since they have a first-year head coach in Dan Quinn and a rookie quarterback in Jayden Daniels. Washington continues to get excellent quarterback play out of Daniels, who has led the offense to consecutive games scoring 38+ points (first time since 1991). The Commanders are also the only team with multiple games of 200+ rushing yards this season, a transformative offense with Kliff Kingsbury. 

While Washington may not be the most complete team, they do lead the NFC East after four weeks with a 3-1 record. The Commanders are going to be a problem in the NFC East, but we’ll have to wait and see what they do against Philadelphia and Dallas. The rebuild is going faster than anticipated. 

Bears made a mistake taking Caleb Williams over Jayden Daniels

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Daniels is miles ahead of Williams right now in the battle of top two picks, as he continues to make history with each passing start. Daniels has the highest completion percentage in a four-game span (82.1%) and highest completion percentage in a two-game span (88.7%) since the merger (82.1%). He’s also the only player since 1970 with a 80% completion rate and 200 rushing yards in a four-game span (minimum 50 attempts). The Commanders are 3-1 off the arms and legs of Daniels.

As for Williams, he’s still developing. He’s completed 61.7% of his passes for 787 yards with three touchdowns to four interceptions (72.0 rating). The Bears are 2-2, but that’s more on their defense than Williams. 

Daniels has proven himself to be an impact player at this level. The jury is still out on Williams. 

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Another week Richardson gets injured for the Colts. Another week the backup quarterback fills in for Richardson the Colts offense doesn’t miss a beat. 

This isn’t about Joe Flacco, Gardner Minshew, or whoever comes in at quarterback. This is about Richardson’s health and his long-term availability for the Colts. Richardson missed 13 games last season with injuries and has played just eight games in his two seasons — only finishing four of them.

The Colts won’t move on from a top five draft pick selected just a year ago, but they have to at least consider the possibility Richardson won’t be a long-term option. Doesn’t help Richardson has only completed 50.6% of his passes with six interceptions in his small sample size this year either. 

Doug Pederson will be the first coach fired

Overreaction or reality: Reality

The Jaguars fell to the Texans Sunday to fall to 0-4, certainly not the start this franchise envisioned a month ago. Jacksonville is 1-9 in its past 10 games after starting last season with an 8-3 record, the only win in that span was a 26-0 win over the Panthers in Week 17 last year. They also have lost six straight road games after winning eight straight prior to the skid.

Sunday was the best game the Jaguars have played all season, and they still fell to the Texans in the final minute. This was an encouraging sign for Jacksonville, but the Jaguars just can’t seem to figure out how to snap their skid. 

Trevor Lawrence played better and the offense was smoother, but the defense gave up 435 yards. The Jaguars are inconsistent week-to-week, but they have a chance to salvage the season with the Colts, Bears, and Patriots coming up. Anything less than 2-1 and Pederson may be gone. 

Overreaction or reality: Reality

The Browns are paying Watson $230 million guaranteed to play football at a high level. They are getting anything but that caliber of play. Watson was a pedestrian 24 of 32 for 176 yards with a touchdown and an interception (84.9 rating) in Cleveland’s latest loss, with Watson not doing anything to prevent the Browns from preserving a win against the Raiders. 

Cleveland took a 10-0 lead after the first quarter, then managed 158 yards the rest of the way. The Browns punted on five of their next six possessions, with the other one being a Watson interception. Watson still had a chance to get Cleveland the win late, but took a sack on fourth-and-3 from the Raiders’ 9-yard line with 35 seconds left — this after a timeout to set up a better fourth down play. 

It may be time for the Browns to give up on the Watson experiment. Watson has completed 61.5% of his passes, averaging 4.9 yards per attempt, and has a 74.4 rating through four games. This play just isn’t good enough, and the browns are 1-3 as a result. 

Sam Darnold is the league MVP after four weeks

Overreaction or reality: Reality

Not much more can be said on how well Darnold is playing at this point. He’s one of the main reasons behind the Vikings’ 4-0 start, continuing the play of an elite quarterback in the process. Darnold did have two turnovers on Sunday, but also threw for 275 yards and three touchdowns (123.1 rating). 

Darnold became the fifth quarterback since 1950 to go 4-0 with 10 passing touchdowns in his first four starts with a team, first to accomplish the feat since Patrick Mahomes in 2018. Darnold is first in the NFL in passing touchdowns (11), yards per attempt (8.8), and passer rating (118.9). 

The Vikings are the first team in NFL history with three straight wins in a season, all without trailing, and all against teams who won playoff games the previous season. This doesn’t happen without Darnold. 

Not only is Darnold the feel-good story in the NFL, he’s the league MVP. 

Jalen Hurts won’t be the Eagles starting quarterback in 2025

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction

Hurts can’t relieve himself of his turnover woes, having another lost fumble in the red zone during Sunday’s blowout loss to the Buccaneers. Not only is that Hurts’ third giveaway in the red zone this season, that is his eighth turnover in four games. 

Hurts has as many turnovers in four games as Carson Wentz did in his disastrous 2020 season, and the Eagles moved on from Wentz after that year. Will the same occur with Hurts?

This is a different situation, and Hurts wants to make things work in Philadelphia (Wentz wanted out). The Eagles have to be concerned with Hurts’ giveaways, as his 27 turnovers are the most in the NFL since the start of last season. Hurts has a giveaway in nine straight games and the Eagles have not won the turnover battle in 12 straight games (4-8 in span).

The Eagles can’t win when Hurts turns the ball over at the rate he’s going. Something will have to give if Hurts can’t correct the issue.