The holiday retail sales season will see an increase between 2.3% and 3.3% but online holiday sales will be more robust, growing between 7% and 9%, compared to the 2023 season.

The projections are from Deloitte research which projects holiday sales will total $1.58 trillion to $1.59 trillion during the November to January time frame, according to a press release on the holiday retail forecast data.

In 2023, holiday sales grew by 4.3% in the same period.

“Although the pace of increase in holiday sales will be slower than last year, we expect that healthy growth in disposable personal income, combined with a steady labor market, will support a solid holiday sales season,” Akrur Barua, economist, Deloitte Insights, said in the release. “Meanwhile, inflation is both a headwind and tailwind to holiday sales. While declining inflation aids consumers’ purchasing power, it also is expected to negatively impact the nominal rise in the dollar value of sales. In addition, rising credit card debt and the possibility that many consumers have exhausted their pandemic-era savings will likely weigh on sales growth this season compared to the previous one.”