Over the course of the next several days, the NBA Cup will heat up as teams play their final games of the Group Stage and look to advance. The Oklahoma City Thunder are part of a group that features the Sacramento Kings, San Antonio Spurs, Los Angeles Lakers and Phoenix Suns.

The Thunder entered the NBA Cup as one of the favorites, but will need good fortune and a pair of wins to ultimately move on to the Knockout Rounds beyond Tuesday.

Eight teams will move on to the Knockout Rounds, including the six winners of each group and two wildcard teams — which will be the team from each conference with the best record in Group Play games that finished second in its group.

Group Standings

To this point, Oklahoma City has played the fewest games of any team in its group. The Thunder beat the Suns to kick off NBA Cup play, then fell to the Spurs in a shocking loss to get to 1-1 in this stage.

1. Phoenix Suns: 2-1 (+19)
2. San Antonio Spurs: 2-1 (+14)
3. Los Angeles Lakers: 2-1 (-16)
4. OKC Thunder: 1-1 (+10)
5. Utah Jazz: 0-3 (-27)

With that in mind, OKC still has a +10 point differential, which will be important to continue increasing as the team looks to get two more victories.

Remaining Thunder Schedule

Two games remain for Oklahoma City in the Group Stage, with a road matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers on the docket for Friday night followed by a contest hosting the Utah Jazz on Tuesday.

• Nov. 29: at Los Angeles Lakers (9:00 p.m. CT)
• Dec. 3: Utah Jazz (7:00 p.m. CT)

Outside of the Thunder’s two remaining games, perhaps the most important matchup in this group to determine the winner will be Phoenix hosting San Antonio on Tuesday. The Spurs are well-positioned to emerge as this group’s top team, with a win in that contest being detrimental to OKC.

Path to Winning Group

At this point, the reality for the Thunder is that these last two Group Stage games must result in wins to have a shot at advancing to Knockout Rounds. Given how competitive these teams have holistically been in group play, it will take three wins to even have a chance to win Group B.

If Oklahoma City did win its last two games and finished 3-1, that wouldn’t guarantee the team would move on. The Suns and Spurs are both 2-1 and play each other next week, meaning one of those two squads will also finish 3-1.

As outlined by the NBA, in the event two or more teams are tied within a group, the tie among the teams will be broken according to the following tiebreakers (in sequential order):

• Head-to-head record in Group Play

• Point differential in Group Play

• Total points scored in Group Play

• Record from the 2023-24 NBA regular season

• Random drawing

Again, the Thunder beat the Suns but lost to the Spurs. So Oklahoma City will hope that Phoenix comes out on top over San Antonio or winning out may not matter.

If OKC loses one of its last two games, the team will face elimination from group contention anyway as a 2-2 record won’t be good enough to win Group B.

If a scenario unfolds in which the Thunder finishes 3-1 but doesn’t win the group, the team could still advance as the Western Conference wildcard representative.

Wildcard Scenarios

Each of the teams that finish second in their group will have a chance to move on to the Knockout Rounds as a wildcard, with one team from each conference getting that opportunity. Simply put, the team with the highest point differential (not including overtime) from Group Stage competition from the Western Conference will advance.

There are still many games to be played, so it’s difficult to project who may earn that opportunity. But as of today, here’s how the potential wildcard teams look in the West.

• Dallas Mavericks: 2-1 (+41)
• Phoenix Suns: 2-1 (+19)
• San Antonio Spurs: 2-1 (+14)
• Los Angeles Lakers: 2-1 (-16)
• OKC Thunder: 1-1 (+10)
• LA Clippers: 1-1 (-5)
• Portland Trail Blazers: 1-1 (-14)

Again, these records and differentials will change significantly in the coming days, but there’s no question that the Thunder would be in a better position if the Mavericks lose their final NBA Cup game against the Grizzlies given Dallas is second in its group and has the highest point differential of this set of teams.

What Next?

Whether Oklahoma City advances or not, more games are on the way. If the Thunder makes it out of the Group Stage, the team will then enter the Knockout Rounds.

The Knockout Rounds will consist of single-elimination games, with those contests taking place in NBA markets — hosted by the team with the better Group Play record— for the Quarterfinals, but the Semifinals and Championship will take place in Las Vegas, with a prize pool and the NBA Cup championship trophy on the line.

The teams that don’t advance will have standard regular season games during that same timeframe, which will count towards the 82-game regular season just like the NBA Cup’s quarterfinals and semifinals.

The Oklahoma City Thunder will have to win these last two NBA Cup games to even have a chance of advancing beyond the Group Stage. But even then, the team will also need a little bit of luck and external dominos to fall the right way.