Ohio State and Notre Dame prepare to face off in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. Here’s the latest projection for the matchup from an expert analytical football model that projects scores and picks winners.

Ohio State emerged as the most dominant team in the College Football Playoff, running through its three postseason opponents by an average of 20 points per game.

Coming off that disappointing loss to Michigan to end the regular season, the Buckeyes responded by pounding Tennessee by 25 in the first round, dominating Big Ten champ Oregon by 20 in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal, and getting past SEC runner-up Texas by 14 in the semifinal.

It was all the rage to suggest Notre Dame was out of it back in September after a surprise loss to MAC underdog Northern Illinois at home, but it rebounded well, to say the least.

Under the leadership of third-year coach Marcus Freeman, the Fighting Irish are on a 13-game win streak behind some of the nation’s most feisty defense and a productive rushing attack.

Now, these two blue-blood programs reunite with everything on the line.

Notre Dame won its first two games against Ohio State back in the 1930s, including one famed “Game of the Century,” but the Buckeyes responded by winning the next six straight meetings.

That includes two regular season games over the past two seasons, beating the Irish by a 21-10 count in Columbus in 2022, and eking out a 17-14 decision in South Bend last fall.

Ohio State is seeking its first national championship since the 2014 season, the inaugural College Football Playoff, and Notre Dame its first title since the 1988 campaign. 

What do the analytics suggest will happen when the Buckeyes and Fighting Irish meet on the field?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Ohio State and Notre Dame compare in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game.

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As expected, the models are siding with the Buckeyes to win the national championship over the Fighting Irish.

But they’re expecting a pretty close game, too.

SP+ predicts that Ohio State will defeat Notre Dame by a projected score of 28 to 22 and will win the game by an expected margin of 5.9 points in the process.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 392-365-9 against the spread with a 51.8 win percentage.

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Ohio State is an 8.5 point favorite against Notre Dame, according to the latest updated lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook for the matchup.

FanDuel lists the total at 45.5 points for the game.

And it set the moneyline odds for Ohio State at -375 and for Notre Dame at +290 to win outright.

Ohio State: -8.5 (-105)
Notre Dame: +8.5 (-115)

Over 45.5 points: -110
Under 45.5 points: -110

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …

That would run in line with where a majority of bets are going in this game.

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A plurality of bettors expect the Fighting Irish will give the Buckeyes a proper challenge, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

Notre Dame is getting 63 percent of bets to either win the game outright in an upset, or to keep the final margin to under nine points in a loss.

The other 37 percent of wagers project Ohio State will cover the big point spread and win the national championship by at least nine points.

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Most other analytical football models also expect the Buckeyes to hold firm against the Fighting Irish and win the national championship.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction tool that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

Ohio State is a narrow favorite over the Irish according to the index, coming out ahead in the majority 55.3 percent of the computer’s simulations of the game.

And while Notre Dame wasn’t projected to win, it still edged out the Buckeyes in a sizable minority 44.7 percent of the remaining sims.

That close projection mirrors what the index expects when considering a scoring margin.

When taking an average of the 20,000 simulations, Ohio State is projected to be just 1.9 points better than Notre Dame on the same field, according to the model’s latest forecast.

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When: Mon., Jan. 20
Where: Atlanta, Ga.

Time: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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How the Buckeyes can beat the Fighting Irish

How the Fighting Irish can beat the Buckeyes

Ohio State vs. Notre Dame picks: What the analytics say

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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