When Cowboys owner Jerry Jones was asked why he decided to retain head coach Mike McCarthy at the end of the 2023 season, he mentioned McCarthy’s consistent success in the regular season and the continuity that keeping him provides:

“Overwhelmingly I thought the best decision to have the continuity that Mike brings… When I look at the job he’s done over the last four years, I can point to some real positives, not the least of which are his 12-win seasons. I think we certainly have made improvement in areas.”

While that’s sound reasoning when you hear it put like that, it also completely overlooks McCarthy’s poor track record in the playoffs, which predates his time in Dallas. Outside of one totally-dominant year when Aaron Rodgers was at the peak of his powers, McCarthy’s time with the Packers was defined by heartbreaking postseason losses. Take out that 4-0 run in 2010 and his playoff record in Green Bay would be just 6-8.

In Dallas it’s been a similar story. It’s true that the Cowboys have dominated the regular season, winning 12 games three straight years. However, as yet they have only one playoff victory under McCarthy, a wild-card win over a Buccaneers team that was a ghost of the Super Bowl juggernaut they were two seasons prior.

Heading into 2024, it wouldn’t take much for Jones to change his mind about McCarthy’s job security, at least according to the oddsmakers. According to BetOnline, McCarthy has the second best odds to be the first head coach fired in the NFL this coming season at 6/1. Only Robert Saleh of the Jets has better odds (5/1).

McCarthy can help his cause by starting out the season on the right foot. In Week 1, Dallas is scheduled to go on the road and face the Browns, headlined by a ferocious defense that allowed the fewest yards per game in the league last year. Next up, they’ll host the Saints, who also have a tough defense but otherwise a lackluster roster. The Ravens will visit in Week 3 and that will represent another major defensive challenge. Aside from yards allowed Baltimore led the league in just about every other meaningful defensive category last season. Week 4’s opponent is the division “rival” Giants, who should reprsent an easy win.

Given how things have gone in the playoffs the last three years, starting out the season 3-1 probably won’t quiet the chorus of frustrated Cowboys fans who want to see change. It would at least give McCarthy some breathing room from the oddsmakers. It may be an unfair standard, but either way if McCarthy doesn’t find a way to at least get to the NFC Championship round this season his days will likely be numbered.

New Uniforms: It’s time for the Dallas Cowboys to unveil new uniforms

Jerry: Cowboys contract predictions could force Jerry Jones to tap out

2025 look ahead: 7 areas where Cowboys could regress statistically in 2024 

Cowgirls: Meet Kelcey Wetterberg: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleader

Cowgirls: Meet Sophy Laufer: Star of Dallas Cowboys Cheerleader Netflix doc