The third of the four Kentucky Derby prep races at Oaklawn Racing Casino Resort in Hot Springs, Arkansas, happens Sunday, February 23, with the Rebel Stakes (G2). The Rebel offers a $1.25 million purse, and 50-25-15-10-5 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top five finishers. The card was originally scheduled for Saturday, but winter weather has pushed it out to Sunday. Oaklawn did not redraw it; races were moved a day into the future with the same post times and draws.

The 12-race card begins at 1:00 p.m. Eastern, 10:00 a.m. Pacific, with the Rebel being carded as the 11th race of the day. The card features four other stakes races, including the Razorback (G3) for older dirt route horses and the Honeybee (G3), a Kentucky Oaks points race. The fields are large all day long, and the betting action will be excellent!

Make sure to check the weather and scratches before placing your bets. The forecast calls for clear skies on Sunday, but if anything changes or horses scratch for other reasons, it’s always a good idea to look back on the race and make sure that your pick can handle the track conditions, or adjust your estimation of the pace map of the race based on any horses who are taken out.

Oaklawn Racing Picks

Race 7: Allowance optional claiming, six furlongs on the dirt – Eglise, Ninja Warrior

FanDuel odds: 12-1 and 9-2

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Though Just Steel is the second favorite on the morning line, it would be no surprise to see him get bet heavily, even down to favoritism. He finished second in three of the four Kentucky Derby preps at Oaklawn last year and raced in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness last year. However, he has been out since the Preakness because of an injury and this race will be a good opportunity to both see where he is right now and make a bet against him, especially since D. Wayne Lukas trainees often need their first race after a long layoff.

Eglise (12-1) steps up in class for this after a victory against non-winners of two lifetime. The most interesting thing about that race is the way he won it: at age three, he did his best work by far on or very close to the lead, even in sprint races, whereas he was a handful of lengths off the pace before making his winning run in this spot. That trip versatility should serve him well against this saltier company, and it is also a point in his favor that trainer Chris Hartman’s last out winners often run strongly next time out. All this makes him the interesting long shot in a great race for finding a price.

Ninja Warrior (9-2) drew the outside, but is tactical enough to manage a trip under his new rider Tyler Gaffalione. Though he is stepping up from starter company to conventional allowance optional claiming company, His better recent races are fast enough to make the step forward logical. He still has upside third off the layoff for trainer Greg Compton, whose horses often run well at that part of their form cycle, and he has consistent form both at the six-furlong distance and over the Oaklawn course.

Race 9: Honeybee Stakes (G2), 1 1/16 miles on the dirt – Take Charge Milady, Necessity

FanDuel odds: 9-2 and 20-1

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Muhimma is the morning-line favorite off of three dazzling starts at age two, and she proved herself nicely at two turns in the Demoiselle (G2) last November. However, she has not raced since then and has never been in a race where the pace was truly cracking. With quite a few pace horses signed on for the Honeybee, this looks like the right place to take a shot and try to beat her.

Take Charge Milady (9-2) won the Martha Washington, the local prep for the Honeybee, last out. Both that victory and her maiden win were open-lengths affairs in which she tracked in range and took command in the lane. She is tactical enough to stay out of early fireworks, let the speed battle up front, and then finish sharply under jockey Julien Leparoux. Both he and trainer Kenny McPeek are having sharp meets at Oaklawn as well, more reason to trust her form.

Though Necessity (20-1) cedes experience to many of the runners, as this is her first start against winners, there are reasons to give her a look at a huge price. This Norm Casse trainee put it all together last out over the same course and distance as the Honeybee, and did so in rate-and-rally fashion from a near-inside gate, just like she drew for this. That race was also her first try on a fast dirt track, meaning she may have found her preferred footing. Furthermore, Mark Casse is winning at a 19% clip on the meet and wins about a quarter of the time with horses third off the layoff. The biggest questions are experience and going off Lasix, but at boxcar odds, there are enough positives to forgive those questions.

Race 11: Rebel Stakes (G2), 1 1/16 miles on the dirt – Hypnos, Sandman

FanDuel odds: 10-1 and 4-1

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Hypnos (10-1) comes into the Rebel Stakes off of a debut maiden win at this distance over the slop at Fair Grounds, meaning he cedes experience to the rest of the field and still has to prove himself over dry dirt. However, the fact that he is trained by Kenny McPeek is a serious point in his favor. McPeek does not typically have his horses fully cranked on debut, and often races them into shape. He ran a sharp effort at first asking: one good enough that a run back to it makes him interesting in this spot, and any progression at second asking makes him seriously appealing. That holds especially true since he breaks from a nice middle gate, and should be able to work a rate-and-rally trip without losing too much ground.

Sandman (4-1) had a nightmare break in the Southwest (G3) last out, a break so bad that it would have been no surprise to see him just throw in the towel. Instead, the son of Tapit kept his head in the game, sustained a rally down the lane, and missed by a length to Speed King. He will have to turn the tables on that one this time, but with the front end likely to be more contested than it was in the Southwest, Sandman likely gets an even better setup this time and will be a serious threat to turn the tables.

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