Notre Dame football vs. Penn State: three keys, predictions for Orange Bowl CFP semifinal

Posted by Admin January 8, 2025 Football

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And then there were four.

The 2024-25 College Football Playoff is down to four teams, all of which are seeded No. 5-8. While No. 5 Texas and No. 8 Ohio State will battle Friday night in the Cotton Bowl, the first spot in the national championship game will be decided Thursday in Miami Gardens, Florida, when No. 7 Notre Dame (13-1) faces No. 6 Penn State (13-2) in the Orange Bowl (7:30 p.m., ESPN).

It’s two historic programs meeting up in the Irish and Nittany Lions, with Notre Dame having won 11 national titles and Penn State two. The last for the Irish was 1988 and the Lions 1986, though, leaving two fan bases starving to end those respective droughts.

What will decide the titanic clash with a spot in Jan. 20th’s championship game on the line? Here are three keys, plus game predictions from the South Bend Tribune staff.

How Notre Dame defends Tyler Warren

While Penn State has a great running back duo in Kaytron Allen (1,026 rush yards, eight touchdowns) and Nick Singleton (1,015 rush yards, nine touchdowns), the proverbial straw that stirs the drink for the Nittany Lions’ offense is tight end Tyler Warren.

The winner of the Mackey Award for best tight end in college football, Warren has 98 receptions, 1,158 yards and eight receiving touchdowns. He also has 127 rushing yards and four scores on the ground, being used in jet-sweep type plays.

Warren has 435 more receiving yards than the next closest Nittany Lion player, Harrison Wallace III (723 yards). When quarterback Drew Allar is dropping back to pass, he’s more than likely looking for Warren.

Given how much Notre Dame’s defense loves playing man-to-man, defending Warren might come down to Irish safeties Xavier Watts and Adon Shuler. Both have been sensational this year, with Watts earning unanimous All-American status with his six interceptions and Shuler adding three picks of his own. Linebackers Jaylin Sneed, Drayk Bowen and Jack Kiser, among others, might have to do their part in containing Warren on his shorter pass routes as well.

The health of Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love

For the first time all season, Jeremiyah Love did not score a touchdown in a game during the Irish’s 23-10 triumph over Georgia in the CFP quarterfinals. In fact, Love mustered just six carries for 19 yards, being limited by a right knee injury.

He was not 100% for the opening-round win against Indiana either, but he still ripped off a 98-yard touchdown run to start the scoring that night. Love was spotted wearing a big brace on his right knee during the open part of practice Sunday, something he said he’s been wearing in practice for most of the last three weeks.

There is little doubt whether Love will play. It’s unlikely, though, Notre Dame can survive another unproductive day from the sophomore standout. Penn State has one of the best rushing defenses in the country, with its 100 yards allowed per game ranking eighth in the nation. It’s going to take Love, quarterback Riley Leonard and running back Jadarian Price at their bests if Notre Dame wants to impose its will with the running game.

Which team can win the turnover battle?

It’s a key for most games, but Notre Dame leads the country with 31 forced turnovers this year. They won the turnover battle, 2-0, against Georgia, with a strip-sack from graduate senior RJ Oben being a turning point in the game. The other turnover came when it looked like the Bulldogs were going to score before Shuler forced a fumble that was recovered by Junior Tuihalamaka.

Penn State has only committed 14 turnovers in 15 games this season. Meanwhile, the Nittany Lion defense has forced seven turnovers in its two CFP contests against SMU and Boise State combined. Whichever defense can give its offense more possessions could decide what is expected to be a close game.

South Bend Tribune staff predictions for Notre Dame vs. Penn State CFP Semifinal at the Orange Bowl

MIKE BERARDINO: Notre Dame 24, Penn State 19. Irish formula works again in the (Al) Golden Bowl.

TOM NOIE: Notre Dame 24, Penn State 17. The more time you spend around this Irish team, the more you sense that it’s their destiny to figure out a way to win this one and play for a national championship for the first time since 2012. It’s happening.

AUSTIN HOUGH: Notre Dame 17, Penn State 7. This feels like another grind-it-out type game for the Irish, similar to the Georgia contest. I like Notre Dame’s chances if that’s the case.