Alexander Zverev has charged up the rankings to No. 2 in the world and can secure the second seed at the 2025 Australian Open with a decent performance–or an early exit by Carlos Alcaraz–at the Nitto ATP Finals.

Zverev will kick off his week with a 10th showdown against Andrey Rublev on Monday night in Turin. The German leads their head-to-head series 6-3 and has won every single one of their matchups at Masters 1000s, Grand Slams, and the year-end championship. He is 5-0 against Rublev in such scenarios, including a 6-4, 6-4 rout during round-robin competition at this same tournament last year.

Rublev will be hard pressed to turn the tide on Monday. The ninth-ranked Russian really hasn’t put together a great season; he simply salvaged it by reaching Masters 1000 finals in Madrid (title) and Montreal (runner-up). Rublev is back on the skids with a 3-5 record in his last eight matches.

Zverev, on the other hand, is red hot. The 27-year-old is coming off a title at the Paris Masters, where he dropped just one set all week–to an in-form Arthur Fils in round three.

Moreover, Zverev’s Nitto ATP Finals history is much more impressive than that of his opponent. The No. 2 seed has won 14 matches all time at this prestigious event, including two titles (2018, 2021). Rublev is 4-9 lifetime and has qualified for the semis only once in four previous appearances.

All signs point to Zverev winning this one in convincing fashion.

Pick: Zverev in 2