This past spring featured a men’s college basketball coaching carousel for the ages. Kentucky, Arkansas, Ohio State, Michigan and USC were among the top-tier jobs to change hands, with John Calipari’s decision to depart Kentucky for Arkansas one of the most stunning moves in recent carousel memory. It seems unlikely the 2025 cycle will feature quite as much chaos, but the carousel is already heating up after Virginia head coach Tony Bennett shockingly announced his retirement just weeks before the season.

Here’s an early look at some notable coaches who could find themselves on the hot seat this winter. 

Following Jay Wright at Villanova was always going to come with impossible-to-meet expectations, but being just 35–33 with no NCAA tournament appearances in two years is an unquestionable disappointment. The offense has stuttered, finishing 39th and 87th nationally in adjusted efficiency on KenPom after never finishing worse than 16th in Wright’s final eight seasons. This offseason wasn’t ideal either, losing Mark Armstrong to the NBA draft and TJ Bamba and Brendan Hausen to the transfer portal. A third straight missed NCAA tournament might force a move to be made.

The heat was on from the Hoosier faithful last February, but Woodson managed to keep his job this offseason. Miss the NCAA tournament again, and it seems almost impossible he’ll be able to stay off the chopping block. That shouldn’t be a problem with the roster reinforcements the Hoosiers added this offseason, buoyed by an NIL budget that was among the best in the country. But with that type of investment comes big expectations, and merely sneaking into the Big Dance might not be enough for some in Bloomington. 

Johnson kept his job last spring after leading the Golden Gophers to a surprising 19–15 campaign, but that may not be enough for long-term security. Minnesota was gutted in the portal and draft, losing three starters, and in the process killed a lot of the momentum built by last season’s success. This group doesn’t look like a traditional last-place team on paper, but it’s also hard to find a team in the exceptionally deep Big Ten that you’d feel confident in them being better than.

Oklahoma hasn’t missed the NCAA tournament four straight years since the 1970s, so failing to dance this season would certainly put the heat on for Moser. The Sooners have had brutal luck on Selection Sunday under Moser: They were the first team out of this year’s Dance after several teams stole bids in the days leading up to the bracket announcement, and in 2022, OU was the second team out. Moser could earn a fifth year if the Sooners are competitive in their first year in the SEC, but bottoming out would be bad news for his future in Norman. 

After last season’s collapse, Memphis has now made the NCAA tournament just twice in six years under Hardaway. Couple that with constant roster and staff turnover and multiple NCAA inquiries, and the Tigers have found themselves in a prickly position with their program legend head coach. It would be hard to fire Hardaway given his ties to the school and city, but the pressure is on for Hardaway to stabilize this program and win at a higher level than he has so far. 

Hurley has seemingly been on the hot seat for years but just keeps hanging on. He has built his most talented roster in quite some time this year thanks to an influx in NIL money, featuring a pair of five-star freshmen in Joson Sanon and Jayden Quaintance as well as a strong portal class. With talent comes expectations, and given that Hurley has finished over .500 just once in the last four seasons, the pressure is on for him to win. 

The Knights were more competitive than expected in Year 1 in the Big 12, helping Dawkins earn another year in Orlando. UCF returns a pair of 15-plus points per game scorers in Darius Johnson and Jaylin Sellers, but the pieces around them will dictate this group’s finish in the loaded Big 12. Dawkins added a ton of once-touted recruits through the transfer portal, many of whom have run into trouble at previous stops: Dior Johnson was dismissed at Pittsburgh after an arrest on assault charges, Mikey Williams never made it to Memphis after being arrested on gun charges in California and Benny Williams was dismissed at Syracuse. This group has the talent to go dancing, but is also perhaps the most prone to a complete midseason blow-up of any team in the country. 

Smith enters his fourth season at Utah hoping to show continued progress after a late-season collapse knocked the Utes out of bubble conversations last season. Utah hasn’t made the NCAA tournament since 2016 and now steps up in weight class into the Big 12. It also can’t help matters for Smith that elsewhere in Utah, BYU is fresh off going dancing in its first year in the Big 12 and has a ton of recruiting momentum, while Utah State has won a combined 54 games in the last two seasons. On paper, this roster is underwhelming for the Big 12, and a bottom-tier finish could spell trouble. That said, Smith has upped his win total by at least five in each of his first three seasons, so this would be a quick hook.

Whether by retirement or firing, it seems likely Hamilton is approaching the end of his tenure at Florida State. After an incredible five-year run from 2016–21 that featured three trips to the NCAA tournament’s second weekend and an ACC regular-season title, FSU is a measly 43–43 in the last three years without even sniffing the Big Dance. Outside of returning star wing Jamir Watkins, this roster looks like one of the worst in the ACC. At 76 years old, Hamilton could easily ride off into the sunset this offseason regardless of what FSU elects to do, but if he doesn’t, it might force the school’s hand.