NFL Week 4 Preview: Schedule, storylines and matchups to watch

Posted by Admin September 26, 2024 NFL

• Panthers found new life with Andy Dalton under center: After making the decision to sit down Bryce Young in favor of Andy Dalton to orchestrate this Panthers offense, everything just seemed to fall into place. Prior to Week 3, the Panthers had generated the league’s lowest EPA per play by a wide margin, but answered back with the sixth-highest in the NFL mark this past week.

• High-powered matchup between contenders in the NFC: The second half of this week’s Monday Night Football doubleheader features a talented matchup between Mike Macdonald’s Seahawks and Dan Campbell’s Lions.

• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!

Estimated reading time: 25 minutes

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Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) vs New York Giants

Storyline of the game: Bitter rivals battle to stay out of the basement in the NFC East

The New York Giants are coming off a huge upset victory in Cleveland after finding themselves up a pair of scores heading into the second half and unleashed their pass rush on Deshaun Watson, racking up 10 sacks on 41 total pressures, 11 more than any other team in Week 3.

Dallas’ issues, however, came to a head this past week at home against the Ravens. Despite coming to life late in the game, it was too little to alter the outcome. Glaring problems on both sides of the ball regarding the run game have largely hindered this team, highlighted with the Cowboys ranking near the bottom of the league in various metrics, including explosive run percentage (4.8%) and defensive EPA per rush allowed.

Matchups to watch: Giants WR Malik Nabers vs Cowboys CB Trevon Diggs

The beef has been cooking after a long offseason of trading shots through social media. In June, Giants first-year wideout Nabers and Cowboys corner Diggs traded jabs through the airwaves that have echoed into this week’s preparation, setting up the first of what will be many classic duels between them in the passing game.

Nabers is coming off his second-straight game in which he saw 12 or more targets, recorded a touchdown and generated an 85.0-plus PFF receiving grade.

Diggs, the Cowboys former All-Pro corner, has struggled over his last two outings, having surrendered 1.80 yards per coverage snap and a 118.8 passer rating into his coverage.

Additional news:

Giants to be without corners Adoree’ Jackson (calf) & Andru Phillips (calf) in Week 4.
Cowboys receiver CeeDee Lamb apologized for his sideline outburst during the Week 3 loss, stating, “I know that’s not the teammate I am.”

New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)

Storyline of the game: Saints’ hot offensive start stopped in its tracks

After an incredible offensive beginning to the 2024 campaign, New Orleans hit a wall this past week at home against the Eagles. Production was difficult to come by for this Saints offense, with this unit generating just 3.6 average yards per play, a bottom-six rate on the week. That’s quite the drop from their 6.5 yards per play over the two games prior, and a trend Derek Carr and company will look to buck in this divisional matchup.

The Falcons fell short on Sunday night against Kansas City. Injuries to key starters on the offensive line in C Drew Dalman and RT Kaleb McGary, two of the team’s top-three graded linemen, stopped this Atlanta run game in its tracks. Bijan Robinson struggled to find room to operate and was held to just 1.9 yards per carry, with over 77% of his yards coming after first contact.

Matchups to watch: Falcons RT Storm Norton vs Saints Edge Carl Granderson

The injury to McGary elevated tackle Storm Norton into the lineup this past week, where he performed admirably, earning a 64.5 PFF overall grade. While serviceable in relief, starting this week will be a serious test of Norton’s ability to stand up on the outside should McGary’s absence extend deep into the year.

Ganderson is off to an excellent start to the season and is currently on pace to set career marks in a variety of pass-rushing stats. The veteran edge defender has strung together a pair of impressive performances the past two weeks, where he’s generated a 25.3% pass-rush win rate on his way to recording 15 pressures, including four sacks.

Additional news:

Falcons C Drew Dalman (ankle) has been placed on IR.
Falcons RT Kaleb McGary (MCL) is dealing with an injury, and the status of his return is unclear.
Saints C Erik McCoy (groin) will have surgery and is expected to miss multiple weeks.
Saints LB Demario Davis (hamstring) was DNP at practice early in the week.

Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) vs Carolina Panthers

Storyline of the game: Panthers found new life with Andy Dalton under center

After making the decision to sit down Bryce Young in favor of Dalton to orchestrate this Panthers offense, everything just seemed to fall into place. Prior to Week 3, the Panthers had generated the league’s lowest EPA per play by a wide margin but answered back with the sixth-highest mark in the NFL this past week.

On the other sideline, Cincinnati is still looking to get on the right track after suffering its third loss to open the season. While Joe Burrow and this Bengals offense made strides to put together a solid performance, it was the defense that fell apart almost instantly. Washington took its bulletin board material and picked apart this secondary, as the Bengals generated a 44.5 team coverage grade.

Matchups to watch: Bengals RT Amarius Mims vs Panthers Edge Jadeveon Clowney

Losing right tackle Trent Brown to a season-ending patellar tendon injury is quite a blow to this front five in Cincy, but luckily, the Bengals have made investments into their protection with their first-round selection of Mims. The first-year tackle saw his first taste of the NFL in relief of Brown this past week — but he struggled to get acclimated in pass pro, where he allowed a pair of pressures, including a sack.

Mims will have to shake the NFL debut pressure and step up this week to check veteran Panthers edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney. Week 3 marked Clowney’s best pass-rushing performance of the young season, having totaled seven pressures, including his first sack of the year.

Additional news:

Panthers WR Adam Thielen (hamstring) has been placed on IR.
Bengals RT Trent Brown (knee) will miss the remainder of the year.

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Los Angeles Rams vs Chicago Bears (-3)

Storyline of the game: Can the Rams turn pressure into sacks against the Bears’ struggling pass protection?

The glaring challenges this Bears offensive line faces on a weekly basis to keep Caleb Williams off the ground continues to be the topic of conversation surrounding this team. Through three weeks, this unit has allowed the second-most pressures (67) in the NFL, including a crushing 14 sacks. If Chicago isn’t careful, its young passer may not be able to make it through the campaign.

The Rams, however, have a golden opportunity to finally rack up some pass-rushing production that has been more difficult to come by this season. Despite LA having generated just four sacks this year, the Rams possess a top-10 pass-rush win rate (47.1%) and are just looking for that chance to convert pressures to sacks.

Matchups to watch: Bears WR Keenan Allen vs Rams CB Quentin Lake

After battling an injury throughout camp, new Bears receiver Keenan Allen only suited up in Week 1 but made his return to practice this week, boding well for his potential return. More outlets for Williams to get the ball off is a welcome addition to this offense — particularly one like Allen, who can generate separation at a high rate from the slot.

The Rams’ secondary has struggled to match up this season, and the slot is no exception. Lake has struggled in his role covering the slot, having surrendered 1.69 yards per coverage snap and a 77.8% open target rate. That will undoubtedly be a matchup, and the Bears hope to isolate it in this one.

Additional news:

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers (-2.5)

Storyline of the game: Packers Matt LaFleur and Vikings DC Brian Flores square off

To go 2-0 in the absence of your starting quarterback is an incredible display of Matt LaFleur’s prowess as a coach. He’s changing his scheme on a weekly basis to fit the week’s matchup and keep defenses guessing, all while putting his young backup quarterback, Malik Willis, into positions to win.

That will undoubtedly be a massive challenge this week as the Packers play host to Minnesota. Vikings DC Brian Flores has been on a tirade to start the year, throwing the kitchen sink at every young quarterback who crosses his path. This defense possesses a 51% pass blitz rate, the second-highest in the league, and it’s causing sleepless nights for passing game coordinators.

Matchups to watch: Packers QB Jordan Love vs. Vikings blitz package

Although Love again started the week of practice as a limited participant, the quarterback’s comments to the media painted an optimistic picture that he may make his return soon. As much as Love would like to get back on the field, this matchup with the Vikings may be a dangerous one if he isn’t truly feeling 100% or lacks mobility.

Brian Flores’ blitz packages are difficult to contend with for even the most seasoned passers and have been known to eat up young passers. Whether Love is able to go two weeks removed from an MCL sprain or it’s backup Willis under center, both will have their work cut out for them.

Additional news:

Vikings QB Sam Darnold (knee) avoids structural damage and is expected to be active this week.
Packers QB Jordan Love is making progress toward a potential return in Week 4.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans (-7)

Storyline of the game: Both franchises’ struggles leave many questions to be answered

The Jags’ 0-3 start to the campaign has set off alarm bells in Jacksonville. This team’s issues seem to permeate throughout, and that was undeniable on Monday night when they had no answers for the Bills on either side of the ball. The game got out of hand to the point that head coach Doug Pederson opted to pull Trevor Lawrence.

Now, Jacksonville continues its road trip in Houston against a Texans team that is also coming off a decisive defeat at the hands of the Vikings. Houston was outmatched in coverage this past week, which led to four scores through the air. While those struggles haven’t been typical for this team, it’s a troubling trend, given its level of talent on the back end.

Matchups to watch: Jaguars WR Christian Kirk vs Texans DB Jalen Pitre

One of the Texans’ coverage unit players who will need to take strides to regain his footing is third-year defensive back Jalen Pitre. In Week 3, the Texans’ slot corner earned a troubling 33.3 PFF coverage grade, plummeting over 43 points on the grade scale over his previous outing.

That may be a matchup that this Jaguars offense would want to isolate in the slot with Kirk. This past week, Kirk not only led the team in receiving grade (71.8), but also stood as the only Jacksonville player to surpass the 60.0 mark. This will be a spot the Jags will again want to get him the ball early and often.

Additional news:

Rumors swirl around Bill Belichick amid struggles for the Jaguars.
Texans RB Joe Mixon (ankle) remains week-to-week.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) vs Indianapolis Colts

Storyline of the game: Steelers continue strong start behind a powerful defense

Another week and another win for Mike Tomlin’s Steelers. This defense is playing lights out, ranking as the second stingiest defense by EPA per play standards in the NFL. This past week, Pittsburgh held the Chargers to zero offensive production in the second half. Having a defense like that has given this team a blueprint for success early in the year.

Inconsistency has been an issue for the Colts, particularly when it comes to the play of quarterback Anthony Richardson, who has failed to surpass a 53.0 overall offensive grade over his past two outings. That’s dangerous territory to tread with this attacking Steelers defense coming to town. If the Colts hope to take this one as home underdogs, they need Richardson to make strides quickly.

Matchups to watch: Colts LT Bernhard Raimann vs Steelers Edge Nick Herbig

With Alex Highsmith expected to miss multiple weeks, this Steelers defense turns to Nick Herbig to fill in. This past week, the second-year pass-rusher earned the league’s highest PFF pass-rushing grade (95.4), albeit on a limited workload, amassing a pair of sacks on just eight snaps.

A repeat performance for Herbig will go a long way to easing the pressure on this pass rush, but that’s a far more difficult task when faced with an elite offensive line like Indy’s. Raimann is a force at the left tackle spot, particularly in pass pro, where he’s earned the eighth-highest PFF pass blocking grade (83.5) at the tackle position.

Additional news:

Denver Broncos vs New York Jets (-7.5)

Storyline of the game: Denver looking to catch a sizable favorite napping once again

After a troubling start to the year, the Broncos woke up in Week 3 to deliver a shocking blow to the Bucs in Tampa to capture their first win. Now, they hope to catch the Jets in a similar trap on their home field. Sean Payton seemingly had an answer for everything Todd Bowles threw at his group, and it showed up in the first frame: Denver opened the game with a two-score lead in the first quarter and never let up.

However, the Jets likely won’t be caught off guard, as they come off extended rest, having last played on Thursday night, where they handled the Patriots from bell to bell. New York controlled the game in almost every facet on its way to a 21-point victory. With Aaron Rodgers and company playing as well as they are, the Jets will have a high ceiling this season.

Matchups to watch: Jets QB Aaron Rodgers vs Broncos FS Brandon Jones

In his return to MetLife Stadium, Rodgers looked comfortable flowing around, making plays with his arm and legs on his way to his second game of the year earning an 82.0-plus overall grade. The veteran quarterback has played nearly mistake-free football, currently standing as one of just three starters to have recorded zero turnover-worthy plays.

After an incredible outing in which Jones secured his first pick of the year, finishing as the highest-graded safety on the week, the hope is that performance sends a jolt to this struggling secondary. But Rodgers undoubtedly represents an entirely different beast this week.

Additional news:

Broncos LB Alex Singleton tore his ACL during the first quarter vs. Tampa and went on to play every defensive snap, will miss the remainder of the year.
Jets RT Morgan Moses (knee) is expected to miss a few weeks.

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Storyline of the game: Injuries stacking up for both strides

Early-season injuries are always difficult to contend with, yet both of these teams have succeeded despite missing key contributors. Still, at what point does the pot boil over?

The Eagles are dealing with a myriad of injuries, ranging from RT Lane Johnson (concussion) to nearly the entire receiving corps, including both of the team’s talented leading receivers in A.J. Brown (hamstring) and DeVonta Smith (concussion).

At the same time, Tampa is also contending with injuries to its offensive leaders in receivers Mike Evans (knee) and Chris Godwin (neck) as well as tackle Tristan Wirfs (knee), with each being limited in practice to start the week.

Matchups to watch: Eagles WR Jahan Dotson vs Buccaneers CB Zyon McCollum

After making a trade to bring in Dotson just before the season, his lack of usage to this point in the campaign has been shocking, to say the least. The former first-round pick has seen just four targets on 99 routes for just a 4% Threat rate. Given the injuries stacking up in the receiver room, this offense is running out of bodies to run meaningful routes.

Without much else in the way of established threats, Dotson will surely cross paths with Bucs corner Zyon McCollum, who is in the midst of a breakout start to 2024. The third-year corner has generated a 90.1 PFF coverage grade through three games, the highest mark at the corner position thus far.

Additional news:

Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals (-3.5)

Storyline of the game: Dynamic quarterbacks battle it out

In his first taste of the bright lights of primetime on Monday night, Commanders first-year passer Jayden Daniels absolutely exploded on his way to earning the week’s highest passing grade (95.5). He completed 91% of passes, amassing 11.0 yards per attempt and a 141.7 passer rating.

Although the Cardinals stumbled against a hungry Detroit team that was looking for redemption, this is still a strong team, headlined by the resurgent Kyler Murray. The NFL news cycle moves fast, but it wasn’t too long ago that Murray was also blowing the doors off of defenses — Week 2 to be exact — where he also earned an insane 95.5 PFF passing grade.

Those two performances from these passers currently rank as the highest single-game passing grades in the NFL this season.

Matchups to watch: Cardinals FS Budda Baker vs Commanders screen game

Washington OC Kliff Kingsbury’s system was the subject of conversation following comments made about his screen-heavy passing game, but it actually ended up being a crucial piece to the game plan against the Bengals that opened up some plays downfield. The Commanders have run the second-most screens in the NFL through three games, ranking in the top five in yardage gained from them.

That will put added pressure on talented Arizona safety Budda Baker to play soundly in coverage. Coming up to support against screens will be a necessity, but can quickly turn into big plays if he loses his keys and lets a big-play threat like Terry McLaurin loose behind the defense.

Additional news:

New England Patriots vs San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)

Storyline of the game: Injuries continue to mount in San Francisco

The Niners collapsed late in Week 3 on the road against the divisional rival Rams in a game that was riddled with injuries on both sides. They again find themselves in a similar position this week, but with more added grief, as they now must navigate quarterback Brock Purdy dealing with a back injury that will leave him day-to-day moving throughout the week.

New England, having last played on Thursday night, will have a rest advantage in this one, giving the Patriots time they’ve needed to get healthy and find some answers to what currently ails them, particularly along the offensive line. Tackle Mike Onwenu, guard Sidy Sow and C David Andrews all have made strides with recent injuries and should be available this week.

Matchups to watch: Patriots LG Sidy Sow vs 49ers DI Jordan Elliott

The Pats are expected to return second-year guard Sow to the lineup this week after going down at the conclusion of camp. That’s a welcome boost to an offensive line that has largely lacked any commanding presence. Although Sow struggled in pass pro in his rookie year, he flourished as a run blocker, earning a 71.3 run blocking grade, making a serviceable fit for what the Patriots hope to do.

The loss of Javon Hargrave (tricep) on the interior will likely elevate Elliott into a bigger role in this matchup. The veteran defensive tackle has made great strides in fitting the run this year, capturing the highest run-blocking grade (71.4) of his career thus far. The 49ers’ defense will need him mightily in this one.

Additional news:

Cleveland Browns vs Las Vegas Raiders (-1)

Storyline of the game: Raiders HC Antonio Pierce fired shots at the locker room, but will it light a spark this week?

Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce had pointed comments about the effort his team showed in their loss to the Panthers, suggesting the team — like some of its players — would also make “business decisions.” While Pierce didn’t drop any names onto the hot seat, it surely sent a jolt through the locker room.

The Browns again find themselves looking for answers regarding their porous pass protection despite returning LT Jedrick Wills Jr. to the lineup this past week. Over three games, this team has allowed an astonishing 114 pressures, 38 more than any other franchise this season.

Matchups to watch: Raiders TE Brock Bowers vs Browns LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah

One player that has, without a doubt, shown up in spades for the black and silver is rookie tight end Brock Bowers. The dynamic tight end is off to a hot start to his career, generating over 2.19 yards per route run on his way to capturing the third-highest PFF receiving grade (79.7) at the position.

While typically a sound coverage linebacker, JOK has seen some struggles to start 2024, evidenced by his 57.0 grade in coverage. The Browns linebacker has surrendered a 108.7 passer rating when targeted, due largely to his 90.9% open target rate. If he’s to hold down Bowers, Owusu-Koramoah will need to find his footing coverage, or it will be a long day.

Additional news:

Browns ED Myles Garrett (foot) has MRI results that come back clean and are considered day-to-day.
Browns RG Wyatt Teller (knee) is expected to be out multiple weeks.
Raiders ED Maxx Crosby (ankle) reveals more concern about the surrounding injury.

Kansas City Chiefs (-8) vs Los Angeles Chargers

Storyline of the game: Chargers contending while missing a number of key players

While the Chargers weren’t expected to be an offensive powerhouse in Jim Harbaugh’s first year at the helm, they’re coming off a performance in Week 3 that is far more troubling than anticipated. LA was stymied by Pittsburgh’s stout defense, to which the team responded by producing -5 yards in the second half. Now, they contend with navigating the near future without tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, and possibly even Justin Herbert.

On the other hand, the Chiefs continue to roll from win to win after another victory in primetime. Even as Patrick Mahomes struggles with putting the ball in harm’s way, so far having recorded the highest turnover-worthy play rate (5.2%) of his career, this team just seems to find ways to win. While the Chiefs have shown cracks, they’re difficult to take advantage of. The Chargers will need to pull out all the stops to slow this team down while shorthanded.

Matchups to watch: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes vs Chargers FS Alohi Gilman

Considering the Chiefs are winning regardless of his performance, Patrick Mahomes will go without major criticisms, but it’s worth noting that his play has been far below the standard he has set as a passer. His six turnover-worthy plays are tied for the fourth-most in the NFL with Bears QB Caleb Williams, a fairly telling comparison given how poorly Williams has played to this point.

However, this week he will look to take advantage of a secondary that will be without FS Derwin James, who was suspended for one game following player safety violations. That will put added pressure on FS Alohi Gilman to step up and return to his 2023 form following a start to the year in which he’s earned just a 56.0 PFF coverage grade.

Additional news:

Chargers FS Derwin James suspended one game for “repeated violations” of player health and safety rules.
Chargers OTs Rashawn Slater (pec) and Joe Alt (MCL) expected to miss Week 4.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert (ankle) exited Week 3 after reaggravating injury, unclear if he will be able to go this week.

Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

Storyline of the game: Primetime classic in the making?

Once again, the Bills and Ravens both find themselves listed in primetime during the first month of the season, partaking in a battle that could very well shape up to be a classic.

Buffalo has been on a tear to start the year, producing phenomenal metrics in a variety of facets on both sides of the ball. Both the offense and defense have generated top-five EPA per play marks, making them one of the strongest teams in the league.

While the Ravens haven’t been overly impressive in any one one element, they tend to do all of them relatively well, yet continue to play games down to the wire. While it may not appear so on the surface, that may be an asset for this Baltimore team, as the Bills have yet to play a team that can keep it close.

Matchups to watch: Ravens RB Derrick Henry vs Bills front-seven

The bruising back is starting to come on strong after an incredible performance in Week 3 that saw him amass over 150 yards on the ground, 100 of which came after first contact. The 30-year-old has proven that regardless of his age or offense he plays in, he is still one of the most productive backs in the game, currently standing as the third-highest rushing graded back in the NFL.

That will provide a difficult challenge for this Bills front seven, which has encountered some struggles to fit the run this season — particularly last week,when they allowed the Jags to pile up an average of 2.9 yards before contact on rushing plays. That performance raised their season average to 1.7 on the year, a rate that places them near the bottom of the league. If Buffalo isn’t able to make improvements in that department, then it’s going to be a long night.

Additional news:

Ravens HC John Harbaugh “very confident” kicker Justin Tucker will work through his slump.

Tennessee Titans (-1.5) vs Miami Dolphins

Storyline of the game: Dolphins HC Mike McDaniel has yet to make a decision on who will start at quarterback this week

Miami continues to suffer the effects of Tua Tagovailoa’s absence from the lineup. After backup Skylar Thompson also went down with an injury this past week, the alarm bells have sounded within this organization. Now, the Dolphins are left extremely shorthanded under center as they debate who will take the field Monday night: Tim Boyle, Tyler Huntley or a banged-up Thompson.

But Miami isn’t alone in its quarterback troubles, as the Titans also have a situation brewing under center. Will Levis continues to make head-scratching plays that put the ball in danger and result in turnover-worth plays. This past week, the Titans passer hit the trifecta of questionable decisions, including ripping a pick-six off a short stop he just never saw the corner breaking on, plus launching a deep ball into double coverage late in the fourth that resulted in a pick, as many would expect.

Matchups to watch: Titans QB Will Levis vs. Dolphins secondary

There’s not much more to say that hasn’t already been said about Levis’ performance this season. Week after week, the young passer seemingly finds new ways to give the ball to his opponents. Turnovers undoubtedly have an element of bad luck baked into them, but what’s happening in Tennessee lands well off that mark. His 44.0 PFF passing grade ranks below all but two qualifying quarterbacks: Carolina’s Bryce Young and Miami’s own Thompson.

Miami’s secondary hasn’t quite lived up to its billing to start the year. Through three weeks, the unit has surrendered the sixth-highest EPA per dropback and has secured just a pair of interceptions. If Levis is not able to figure something out in this matchup, he may be finding some time on the sideline.

Additional news:

Seattle Seahawks vs Detroit Lions (-4)

Storyline of the game: High-powered matchup between contenders in the NFC

The Seahawks are off to an incredible start in Mike Macdonald’s first season, but this week marks their first real test of the season. Through three weeks, Seattle has played opponents that have a combined three wins total (Denver, New England and Miami) in nine games. While they can only handle the business in front of them, it does raise the question of how they will rise to an occasion like this.

Without a doubt, Detroit is the toughest team yet on Seattle’s schedule. While the Lions haven’t blown the doors off of their competition, they’ve been playing a tough first-place schedule and already look battle-tested — an important reminder that there is more to football than just a win-loss record.

Matchups to watch: Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs Seahawks Devon Witherspoon

After a slow season opener for St. Brown, the talented receiver returned to his explosive ways the past two weeks, capturing a combined 80.6 receiving grade. Over that span, the Lions receiver has generated an impressive 2.44 yards per route run and seven receptions of 15 or more yards, a good indication he’s hitting his stride on the young season.

Tasked with checking the “Sun God” will be dynamic second-year corner Devon Witherspoon. “Spoon” is also putting together another solid campaign manning the slot, having allowed just 0.67 yards per coverage snap to go along with a 77.4 passer rating allowed into his coverage.