Welcome to NFL Under Review, a weekly column where I will sound off on misguided narratives, inexplicable coaching decisions, and other topics around the NFL. Each Tuesday throughout the course of the season, you’ll get my takes on what happened the previous weekend, with an eye on what’s to come.

That was an “I’m here!” game from Jayden Daniels.

And that was an “I’m here!” moment in the fourth quarter of Monday night’s game against Cincinnati. Facing a key third-and-7 with just over two minutes left, Daniels, the no. 2 pick in April’s draft, beat the blitz and dropped a beautiful pass right in the bucket for a 27-yard touchdown to Terry McLaurin. It capped off a near-perfect night for Daniels and the Commanders offense. Washington got the ball six times (not counting a couple of kneel downs) and scored five touchdowns and a field goal. Daniels went 21-for-23 for 254 yards and two touchdowns. He also ran 12 times for 39 yards and a touchdown.

How about this for an early-season surprise: The Commanders have the most efficient offense in the NFL in terms of expected points added per drive. Their last 13 possessions: five touchdowns, eight field goals, no punts, no turnovers. They have not punted since Week 1!

The hardest thing to do in the preseason is predict how rookie quarterbacks will perform. I looked at the combination of offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, a shaky offensive line, and a group of pass catchers that didn’t have a whole lot beyond McLaurin, and even though I liked Daniels as a prospect, I thought he would have a tough first season. Whoops! It’s only three weeks, but I can’t imagine there’s a happier fan base than the Commanders’ right now. That was a flat-out electric performance in front of a national audience.

Monday night felt like the end of this version of the Jaguars.

I like Trevor Lawrence. I think he’s talented. I think he’s had some bad luck. I think there’s a good quarterback in there somewhere. But my football hipster friends? Well, they really like Lawrence. Nothing is ever his fault. It’s the coaching and the scheme and the receivers and the offensive line. They are sure that Lawrence will live up to his predraft hype once he finds himself in a better situation. Maybe they’re right. (Note: I don’t think they’re right.) But what I am pretty sure about is that Doug Pederson’s chance to get more out of Lawrence is pretty much over.

The Jaguars got smoked by the Bills, 47-10, on Monday night. The game was not competitive. The Bills scored touchdowns on their first five possessions, and it was essentially over before halftime. But I had one thought as I was watching: What would these two teams look like if you swapped quarterbacks and kept everything else the same? I think the Jaguars would be pretty good with Josh Allen as their quarterback. And I think the Bills would struggle to be competitive with Lawrence. It’s probably not fair to compare Lawrence to Allen, but at the very least, we can say that one guy has shown an ability to lift everyone up around him, and the other guy needs a certain amount of help to perform like an above-average starter. It’s pretty clear which one is which.

Over the past three seasons (this doesn’t count his disastrous rookie year with Urban Meyer), Lawrence ranks 14th in EPA per pass play and 17th in success rate. Typically—not always, but typically—we know whether a quarterback is great by this point in his career. Lawrence has started 53 games and received his big second contract, and even his biggest supporters are still hoping something will click.

The disheartening thing is that Lawrence appears to be regressing. He’s completing just 52.8 percent of his passes this season, which puts him 30th among qualified passers—ahead of only Anthony Richardson. He’s reacting to pressure poorly and taking sacks on 11 percent of his dropbacks, which ranks 27th. We still see some high-level throws, but there is no steadiness whatsoever in his game.

I think we all know what will probably happen now. Pederson, who was hired to get the best out of Lawrence and has failed, will get fired at some point between now and the end of the season. The Jaguars will again look for a new coach who can unlock a better version of Lawrence. And we’ll wait to see what his actual ceiling is. Lawrence will turn 25 in October. There’s still hope. But it’s time to stop clinging to the version of Lawrence we thought we were getting when he was drafted and evaluate him based on what we’re actually seeing.

The Panthers can make the playoffs.

Let me be clear about something: If you tell anyone about this take, I will destroy you. This is just between us. Do we understand each other? Good. Now, on to the take …

Andy Dalton was fantastic against the Raiders! Nothing about his quarterback performance felt fluky. He went 26-of-37 passing for 319 yards, with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The numbers could have been even more impressive had the game been closer and the Panthers needed to stay aggressive. Dalton did everything. He ripped throws over the middle. He dropped dimes in the red zone. He unlocked wide receiver Diontae Johnson, who had been missing from the offense in the first two weeks. The Panthers looked like a completely different offense than the one we saw with Bryce Young. They had the eighth-highest EPA per drive of any team in Week 3.

I know, I know. It’s only one game. But answer this question for me: Is there a real difference between Dalton and the other quarterbacks in his division, Derek Carr, Baker Mayfield, and the 2024 version of Kirk Cousins? I say no! All of those guys can look good one week and bad the next. They can operate at a high level when circumstances are good, but they’re prone to crumbling when the situation around them gets shaky.

Right now in the NFC South, the Saints and Bucs are both 2-1. The Panthers and Falcons are both 1-2. Carolina actually has a chance to be relevant this season. I know, I can’t believe I’m saying it either. OK, now move on to the next take, and let’s never speak of this again.

The offense hasn’t been the issue for the 49ers.

The defending NFC champs are 1-2 after a bit of a meltdown Sunday against the Rams; they blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead in a game without running back Christian McCaffrey, wide receiver Deebo Samuel, and tight end George Kittle. It would be easy to link the loss to the injuries and conclude that the offense is suffering without three of its key players and presume that Brock Purdy can’t operate under these circumstances. The only problem? There’s not a whole lot of evidence to back that up.

The 49ers had 25 first downs and 425 yards of offense against the Rams. Purdy ranked fourth among all Week 3 starters in EPA per pass play. If we look at every game played since the start of 2023, the 49ers produced an offense in Week 3 that ranks in the 93rd percentile, based on EPA per drive. Again, that was without McCaffrey, Samuel, or Kittle! On the season, the 49ers are fifth in EPA per drive and sixth in success rate. Their offense is still operating at a high level.

So what’s the problem? Well, let’s take a look at the other side of the ball. Kyle Shanahan made a coaching change in the offseason, firing defensive coordinator Steve Wilks shortly after the Super Bowl loss and replacing him with Nick Sorensen. But that swap has not helped San Francisco’s defense—and there’s a statistical case that the 49ers are worse on defense now than they were last year, when they finished the season 12th in EPA per play allowed. They rank 24th in EPA per drive and 25th in success rate through three weeks. Meanwhile, special teams let the 49ers down on multiple occasions against the Rams.

Going forward, this gets a little tricky. Everything I mentioned above is based on a three-game sample, and the bar for the 49ers is high. It’s Super Bowl or bust, and they’re dealing with a lot of uncertainty. Purdy is now reportedly experiencing back soreness, and McCaffrey’s long-term status remains unclear as he travels to Germany to see a specialist for his Achilles injury. On defense, tackle Javon Hargrave is likely out for the season with a triceps injury he suffered on Sunday.

The good news for the 49ers is that Kyle Shanahan and Purdy showed that they can still combine to produce a highly efficient offense even when they’re short-handed. The bad news is that the injuries are piling up, and the solutions on defense might be hard to find.

Let’s welcome Sean McVay and Matt LaFleur to the NEC for Week 3.

What is the NEC, you ask? The No Excuses Club. I just created it like two minutes ago. Our mission is to recognize NFL coaches who understand what their jobs are. Please note that we are in no way affiliated with the New England Conservatory or the Nippon Electric Company, whose slogan is “Orchestrating a brighter world.” Our slogan is “That’s what the money’s for.”

Let’s start with McVay. The Rams were big home underdogs Sunday against the 49ers, and early on, it seemed like they would get blown out. Los Angeles trailed 14-0 and faced a fourth-and-6 from its own 43 with 6:22 left in the first half. McVay boldly called a fake punt. It worked! The Rams picked up a first down and went on to score a touchdown to get back in the game. Remember, they were missing wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. So what did McVay do? He turned to more two tight end sets. The Rams used 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two wide receivers) on 43.6 percent of their snaps—that was after having not used 12 personnel for a single snap in the first two weeks of the season. In other words, McVay adjusted—what a concept!

The Rams offense ranked fourth in EPA per drive in Week 3, despite its injury issues. A lot of coaches in the NFL love to make excuses. Had the Rams lost badly on Sunday, no one would have blamed McVay if he did the same. It’s hard to win when you’re down a bunch of good players. But McVay understands that he gets paid a lot of money to figure it out when circumstances are less than ideal. And on Sunday, he offered solutions that helped get the Rams their first win.

Then there’s LaFleur, who has now guided the Packers to back-to-back wins with backup quarterback Malik Willis. In his first two NFL seasons with the Titans, Willis completed 53 percent of his passes, averaged 5.3 yards per attempt, and threw no touchdowns with three interceptions. So far this season with the Packers, he’s completed 73.5 percent of his passes, averaged 9.5 YPA, and thrown two touchdowns without an interception.

I guess coaching matters, huh? LaFleur, on the fly, has redesigned the Packers offense to accentuate Willis’s strengths, and it’s worked beautifully. A couple of weeks ago, when Jordan Love suffered a knee injury in the opener, this seemed like it might be a lost season for the Packers. They didn’t have a great backup plan and had just traded for Willis in late August. But LaFleur has done what coaches are paid to do: put players in positions to be successful. Now the Packers are 2-1, with Love expected to return in Week 4.

So welcome to the club, Sean and Matt, and congratulations on a job well done. Dues must be turned in by the end of the month, and membership can be revoked as early as next week if you punt on fourth-and-1 from the opponent’s territory.

Andy Reid got conservative, and it nearly cost the Chiefs.

Have I been burned repeatedly in the past for questioning various aspects of how the Chiefs operate? You betcha! Is that going to stop me from continuing to do it? Of course not! Kansas City is 3-0 after its 22-17 win over the Falcons on Sunday night. Its offense doesn’t look quite as explosive as some people expected, but that might not be a big deal. The Chiefs have time to figure things out as they stack ugly wins.

What might actually end up being a big deal is Reid’s game management. In the second quarter, facing fourth-and-2 from the Atlanta 35-yard line, Reid opted for a 53-yard field goal rather than going for it. In the third quarter, facing fourth-and-goal from the Atlanta 3, Reid sent out Harrison Butker to kick a 21-yard field goal rather than going for it. And in the first half, after the Falcons were penalized on a Patrick Mahomes touchdown pass, Reid could have gone for two from the Atlanta 1-yard line. Instead, he just kicked the extra point.

I understand that not all of those decisions were no-brainers, but Reid chose the conservative path every single time. Keep in mind that he made those decisions on a night when the Chiefs produced the highest offensive success rate of any team in a single game this season to that point. The offense might have sputtered down the stretch, but for most of the night, Kansas City was running successful plays. Did I mention that their quarterback is Patrick Mahomes? A very simple rule of mine for whenever Mahomes is on the field would be: If it’s a toss-up, be aggressive. You can live with things not always working out if you put the ball in Mahomes’s hands.

Reid’s decisions didn’t end up costing the Chiefs this time. Their defense got a stop at the end, and they got the victory. But Chiefs seasons with Mahomes are measured by Super Bowls, and they owe it to themselves to have a consistent process to optimize in-game decision-making. Maybe this will be a nonissue as the season goes on, but if we’re judging process instead of results, Reid didn’t do a very good job in this aspect of his coaching in Week 3.