Bijan Robinson – 105.5 total yards in Pick’em.

Breece Hall – 97.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• Jets have the 2nd-worst yards before contact per carry.

• Patiots have the 5th-best average tackle depth on RB carries, but they are without LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (shoulder).

Jordan Mason – 104.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• 49ers are projected for 4th-most points as 7.5-point favorites.

• It’s an eruption spot per the efficiency chart, too. The 49ers have the 4th-best RB carry success rate, and the Rams are last in RB carry success rate allowed on the 4th-worst average tackle depth.

• He’s the RB8 on RB8 usage, even with last week’s negative game script and difficult matchup.

Saquon Barkley – 98.5 total yards in Pick’em.

Alvin Kamara – 100.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• Saints are projected for 3rd-most points.

• Eruption spot per the efficiency chart. The Eagles have the worst average tackle depth on RB carries. And the Saints have the 2nd-best RB carry success rate and 3rd-best yards before contact per carry. This outside zone scheme is working.

• He’s the RB1 on RB5 overall usage without much competition behind him.

De’Von Achane

• This assumes Raheem Mostert (chest/shoulder) is out again. He had a monstrous 23.7 expected half PPR outing in Week 2 without him, seeing another 7 targets. That’ll likely be the plan again with Skylar Thompson unable to sustain a normal pass game through 4 NFL games.

Jahmyr Gibbs – 77.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• Lions are projected for 2nd-most points.

• He’s one of the bigger positive regression candidates after starting as the RB13 on RB6 usage so far.

James Conner – 78.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• He’s averaging 22 half PPR points in his last 7 games with Kyler Murray and OC Drew Petzing. He’s the RB5 on RB12 usage this year.

• Cardinals are projected for 8th-most points. This is the only offense that’s consistently using pulling OL on their rushing concepts (29 attempts), which should get better with more reps.

• His backup, Trey Benson, is dead last in his rate of rush yards over expected (7% omg) per Next Gen Stats. He’s spending 3.5 seconds behind the line of scrimmage on average. Once again, dead last.

• Lions have the 3rd-best average tackle depth on RB carries.

Josh Jacobs

• Packers are projected for the 4th-fewest points, a similar situation to last week when he had 15.1 expected half PPR points on monster ground-game usage. A goal-line fumble prevented him from a huge outing.

• Jacobs’ rush yards over expected have gone from -0.4 to +1.3, per NextGenStats. Turns out coaching and training camp matter!!! Let’s get the FBI to look into this.

• He’s the RB19 on RB9 usage because of bad luck at the goal line. That’ll regress.

Jonathan Taylor – 90.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• Bears are the 5th-best in RB carry success rate allowed.

• He only has 2 receptions and 1 inside the 5-yard line carry, leading to RB25 usage so far. That’s part of the problem with playing with boom-bust Anthony Richardson.

  

Derrick Henry – 76.5 total yards in Pick’em.

James Cook – 86.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• Bills are projected for 5th-most points as 5.5-point home favorites.

• Bills are 2nd in success rate on RB carries up the middle.

• He’s the RB6 on RB21 usage, so he’s been running pure so far.

Kyren Williams – 93.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• Rams are projected for the 7th-fewest points.

• His 5.6 under expected are the worst of any RB through two weeks. He’s the RB21 on RB4 usage. That’ll positively regress, though the entire team is injured.

Rhamondre Stevenson – 84.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• Patriots are projected for the fewest points, but the Jets could be missing LB C.J. Mosely (questionable with a toe) and EDGE Jermaine Johnson (IR with an achilles).

• They are one of the only teams majoring in a man-based run scheme, and it’s working. They have the 3rd-best EPA per carry on their 35 man-based rushing attempts.

• He’s the RB9 on RB2 usage so far, playing in two close games. He’s more at risk in negative game scripts.

Joe Mixon (Questionable)

• Needed an MRI for an ankle injury. Did not practice on Wednesday. Neither did Dameon Pierce, likely leaving Cam Akers as the early-down runner and Dare Ogunbowale on passing downs. Akers is a great addition right now just in case.

• Mixon has looked comfortable in this outside zone scheme, leading to RB10 numbers on RB10 usage.

J.K. Dobbins

• He’s the RB4 on RB30 usage so far, as a model breaker and/or negative regression candidate. What he’s done is unsustainable (obvioulsy), though Dobbins does have an elite efficiency in this Greg Roman offense dating back years. And the Chargers OL is leading to the most yards before contact per carry (2.7) right now. They are in a groove.

• Chargers are projected for the 5th-fewest points.

  

Travis Etienne – 78.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• This assumes Tank Bigsby plays, but if not, Etienne saw 17.1 expected half PPR points in last week’s contest when he wasn’t splitting work.

Zack Moss

• Bengals are projected for the most points as 7.5-point home favorites. He played 82% of the Week 2 snaps and profiles as the “closer” with leads.

• Bengals with the 7th-best RB carry success rate and 6th-best yards before contact per carry.

  

Zach Charbonnet

David Montgomery

• Lions are projected for 2nd-most points.

• Lions have the best RB carry success rate.

• He’s the RB11 on RB17 usage.

Brian Robinson

• Eruption spot per the efficiency chart. He’s the RB3 in rush yards over expected per carry (+2.1) according to NextGenStats, and the Bengals are missing multiple DTs.

• He’s the RB12 on RB15 usage so far.

  

Tony Pollard

• This assumes Tyjae Spears (ankle) plays in his clear backup role.

• He’s been the RB14 on RB14 usage so far, seeing 18.2 expected half PPR points in last week’s game with Spears knicked up.

  

Rachaad White

Aaron Jones (Questionable)

Devin Singletary – 69.5 total yards in Pick’em.

Najee Harris – 63.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• Steelers with the 4th-worst RB carry success rate. He’s now the RB30 on RB18 usage, scoring 5.0 half PPR points under his usage-based expectation. He has to play better with Jaylen Warren on right behind him.

• His 10.6 expected half PPR points with Warren healthy in Week 2 would make him the RB26 in usage, and he’s been a below-average performer in general.

  

Chuba Hubbard – 66.5 total yards in Pick’em.

Zamir White – 72.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• Raiders are 5.5-point home favorites vs. the Panthers.

• Raiders with a league-low 18% success rate on RB carries, but the Panthers have allowed the 2nd-most RB rushing yards. Something has to give.

D’Andre Swift

• Bears with the 3rd-worst yards before contact per carry.

• Colts placed star DT DeForest Buckner on IR and have already allowed the most rushing yards to RBs. EDGE Laiatu Latu (hip) also didn’t practice.

Javonte Williams – 61.5 total yards in Pick’em.

• Broncos are projected for the 3rd-fewest points.

• Broncos with the 2nd-worst RB carry success rate on the worst yards before contact per carry (0.2). That’s partially led Javonte to the 2nd-worst rush yards over expected per carry (-2.5) according to NextGenStats. It hurts that 59% of his runs have been against an 8+ defender box, by far the highest in the NFL. Come on, Sean Payton. Come on.

Carson Steele – 56.5 total yards in Pick’em.

Jaylen Warren – 43.5 total yards in Pick’em.

Jerome Ford – 71.5 total yards in Pick’em.

Austin Ekeler

Rico Dowdle – 40.5 total yards in Pick’em.

Ezekiel Elliott – 43.5 total yards in Pick’em.

Ty Chandler

Gus Edwards

Samaje Perine

D’Onta Foreman

Bucky Irving

Tyjae Spears (Questionable)

Alexander Mattison

Chase Brown

Antonio Gibson – 33.5 total yards in Pick’em.

Justice Hill

Braelon Allen – 34.5 total yards in Pick’em.

Jaleel McLaughlin

Tank Bigsby (Questionble)

Tyler Allgeier

Justin Jefferson- 84.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• The best WR in the NFL gets emerging stud CB1 Derek Stingley on the perimeter. The Texans don’t play that much man coverage, rather opting for more two-high zone coverages in general. As we saw last week, Jefferson can beat those two. In fact, he’s the craftiest double-team and deep safety manipulator I’ve ever seen.

CeeDee Lamb – 77.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Ja’Marr Chase

• The Chiefs doubled Chase in key spots last week, but not every team has the scheme and depth to do so.

• Commanders have allowed the 3rd-highest success rate and 4th-most EPA per target to WRs. It’s probably the worst secondary in the NFL over a larger sample.

Amon-Ra St. Brown – 76.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• Cardinals have allowed the 5th-most EPA per target to WRs, particularly getting smoked by slot-based Cooper Kupp and Khalil Shakir. They’ve allowed the highest success rate (a not so nice 69%), too.

Nico Collins – 70.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Rashee Rice – 74.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• Without Isiah Pacheco, the Chiefs are likely to increase their neutral pass rate.

• Falcons have allowed the 4th-lowest success rate on targets to WRs.

Brandon Aiyuk – 64.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Tyreek Hill – 67.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

DeVonta Smith – 72.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Davante Adams – 63.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Malik Nabers – 63.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• Browns have allowed -0.21 EPA per target to WRs this year, the 4th-best in the NFL. Nabers will see CB1 Denzel Ward on the perimeter, so Daboll better get him in the slot and as many free releases as we saw last week. That said, Nabers is good enough to go toe-to-toe with the league’s best corners already.

• The Giants are 3rd in WR receptions, many of them going to their super star in the making.

  

Chris Godwin – 60.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

DK Metcalf – 61.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Chris Olave – 59.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• Eagles have allowed the 3rd-most EPA per target to WRs, particularly not handling deep passes well (see: Jayden Reed, Darnell Mooney, etc.).

Garrett Wilson – 64.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• He’s the WR31 on WR14 usage, making him a positive regression candidate. His 33% target share is in line with the best, but the Jets’ slow-paced offense has hurt his production.

• The Patriots are one of the few defenses willing to actually double team clear No. 1 receivers. They haven’t treated Wilson that way previously, but with Rodgers, they may put CB1 Christian Gonzalez on him with some safety help on critical downs. It’s a slight concern.

Mike Evans – 60.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• Broncos have used Cover 0 or Cover 1 (man coverages) on 51% of their dropbacks so far, often using elite CB1 Patrick Surtain in a shadow role. Surtain rarely goes into the slot, so this should be an Evans on Surtain matchup. Get the popcorn ready. Also slightly re-set fantasy expectations for Evans.

Marvin Harrison – 57.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• Lions have played Cover 1 (man coverage) at the 2nd-highest rate (44%), rarely playing with two safeties over the top. There will be opportunities for boom-bust shot plays based on the schemes involved.

• He’ll face some 1st-round rookie CB Terrion Arnold.

Drake London – 60.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• The Chiefs have used a true double coverage on 9 reps this year, which is 33% of the league’s total output. They granted Ja’Marr Chase that respect. I’m unsure London deserves it, too, but the Chiefs are a team willing to erase the top pass option based on scheme.

George Pickens- 44.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Jameson Williams – 51.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

DJ Moore – 61.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• Colts CB1 JuJu Brents (IR) is out, as is star DT DeForest Buckner. They’ve allowed the most EPA per target to WRs already.

• Colts defense is the most predictable, playing Cover 3 at the highest rate. This should be an easier week to prepare for. The Bears, well, they need it.

  

Amari Cooper – 47.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Stefon Diggs – 50.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• Revenge game???

• Vikings have played the most 2-high shells and bring some quick pressure with blitzes. That helps the quick-hitting WRs typically, which is Diggs’ role as the primary slot WR with the lowest average depth of target.

Tank Dell – 49.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Zay Flowers – 53.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaylen Waddle – 44.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Rashid Shaheed – 46.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• Eagles have allowed the 3rd-most EPA per target to WRs, particularly not handling deep passes well (see: Jayden Reed, Darnell Mooney, etc.).

Calvin Ridley – 50.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Brian Thomas – 40.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Diontae Johnson – 46.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Michael Pittman – 50.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• WR31 usage is way down from last year because he’s seen 0 RPO targets in a new-styled offense that features far more downfield targets on normal dropbacks.

• Josh Downs (ankle) returns and could impact the WR rotation, likely at the expense of boom-bust Adonai Mitchell.

• Bears secondary is amazing, allowing the 3rd-lowest success rate on targets to WRs (37%) despite already playing the Texans.

Xavier Worthy – 41.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Terry McLaurin

Demarcus Robinson – 37.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Jerry Jeudy – 40.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Christian Kirk – 41.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Khalil Shakir – 43.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Andrei Iosivas

Courtland Sutton – 35.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• Major buy low candidate per the model.

• Bucs have allowed -0.21 EPA per target to WRs this year, the 3rd-best in the NFL. DC Todd Bowles has shut down rookie QBs many times before. This is a tough spot for Bo Nix, but there could be some garbage time production waiting.

Keenan Allen (Questionable)

DeAndre Hopkins

Rome Odunze

Ladd McConkey

Brandin Cooks – 41.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Jayden Reed

Tyler Lockett

Darnell Mooney – 33.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Adam Thielen – 43.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Jauan Jennings – 34.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Keon Coleman – 34.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Jakobi Meyers – 35.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Quentin Johnston

• Steelers have allowed -0.23 EPA per target to WRs this year, the 2nd-best in the NFL. Johnston, in particular, will see CB1 Joey Porter, who is an aggressive emerging corner. This is they type of corner that gave QJ fits as a rookie.

Christian Watson

Romeo Doubs

Joshua Palmer

Gabe Davis – 36.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

TuTu Atwell

• After Cooper Kupp left in the 2nd quarter last week, the Rams’ routes were Robinson (10-of-11), Jordan Whittington (10), Atwell (7), and Tyler Johnson (5). Whittington was viewed as Kupp’s direct handcuff as a slot option, thought Atwell did play slot receiver in previous seasons. When Atwell played late, it was at the expense of Johnson who started the game. Atwell did have a fantasy-relevant stretch last year without Kupp, so he gets my nod here.

Greg Dortch

Alec Pierce

Wan’Dale Robinson – 28.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Mike Williams – 23.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Trey McBride – 52.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• 29% targets on a TE-focused offense, projected for the 9th-most points on the week. It’s a great spot as home underdogs, too.

Travis Kelce – 48.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• No Isiah Pacheco should mean far more passes. He needs more dropbacks because his target share has dropped to just 13% so far. That likely regresses back towards 18-22% over time. I’m buying the dip, assuming we’ve all fully reset expectations.

• The Falcons are more beatable at LB and over the middle than they are on the perimeter and downfield because of their personnel. That’s good news for Kelce.

Sam LaPorta – 46.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• The emergences of Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs have hurt his target share (10%) this season. That’s likely the floor moving forward, though they also hurt his ceiling.

• Lions project for the most points on the week.

Brock Bowers – 46.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• It’s been two NFL games, and Bowers is already the TE2 on TE3 overall usage.

• Game script works against Bowers with the Panthers looking like an obvious run funnel.

Mark Andrews – 39.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Kyle Pitts – 38.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• He’s the TE7 on TE9 usage so far. He nearly had a TD on a whip route last week, but he did get lucky on a coverage bust for his Week 1 score.

• The Chiefs allowed Isiah Likely to put up the only good TE score this season.

Dalton Kincaid – 37.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Dallas Goedert – 39.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• He’s the TE13 on TE10 usage, only posting 6.6 expected half PPR points in Week 2 even with A.J. Brown out.

• Expect a run-based game plan against the potentially vulnerable Saints run defense.

Hunter Henry – 34.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

• He’s the TE4 on TE2 usage and a 29% target share. This is an offense that will feature the position, especially with the state of the Patriots’ WR room.

• Jets LB C.J. Mosely being out would be a big deal. They are already more vulnerable over the middle with CB1 Sauce Gardner largely eliminating one sideline.

  

Colby Parkinson – 30.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Isaiah Likely – 31.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Mike Gesicki – 29.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Jake Ferguson (Questionable)

Taysom Hill

Noah Fant – 25.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Dalton Schultz

Zach Ertz – 27.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Pat Freiermuth – 25.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Brenton Strange

Tyler Conklin – 22.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Hayden Hurst

Cole Kmet – 21.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Jonnu Smith

Tucker Kraft

Greg Dulcich – 20.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Cade Otton – 21.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Chig Okonkwo – 18.5 receiving yards in Pick’em.

Juwan Johnson

Jordan Akins

Dawson Knox