We’re heading into Week 14 of the 2024 NFL season, and league insiders Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano are here to break down the biggest questions, latest news and notable buzz heading into the slate of games. They’ve been making calls around the league to get the newest information. Plus, they pick out which players should — or shouldn’t — be in your fantasy football lineups.

Which teams could sneak into the playoff field before it’s all said and done? Is there anything interesting brewing in the early parts of the coaching carousel? And looking ahead to the offseason, what are the chances Aaron Rodgers returns to start for the Jets in 2025, and has anything changed around the league when it comes to the running back market?

It’s all here, as our insiders answer big questions and empty their reporters’ notebooks with everything they’ve heard heading into Week 14.

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Playoff races | Coaching buzz
Rodgers’ future | RB market
Fantasy tips | Latest intel and notes

Which team currently outside the playoff field has the best chance to sneak into the final 14?

Graziano: The easy answer is the Buccaneers, who at 6-6 are actually tied for first place in the NFC South with the reeling Falcons but lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to Atlanta because of two losses to the Falcons. Last week, I was pretty sure that tiebreaker would protect the Falcons, but the Bucs could be a full game ahead a week from now, as the Falcons have to visit 10-2 Minnesota while the Bucs get to host the Raiders.

Tampa Bay has a 56.5% chance to make the playoffs, per ESPN’s Football Power Index, which is higher than any NFC South team. So while I would have loved to make the case for the Cardinals or Rams and stay consistent with what I said here last week, I can’t ignore the math or the fact that the Falcons really aren’t playing well.

Fowler: The NFC West has my full attention. The 7-5 Seahawks hold a one-game lead but must fend off Arizona, which looks to avenge its Week 12 loss in Seattle. A win in Sunday’s rematch would put the Cardinals at 3-1 in the division and help their cause in potential tiebreaker situations. As of now, the Seahawks have a 40.4% chance of making the playoffs compared to 35.7% for the Cardinals, according to the FPI.

So if we’re talking about teams outside of the current top 14, I’ve been bullish on the Cardinals and will keep them as my pick … though the Rams’ versatile offense and vaunted young defensive front will be formidable in December. And it’s hard to bet on the 49ers right now. Too many injuries, too little edge.

Graziano: Finding an AFC candidate is certainly tougher, but the Colts are at least worth watching. If one of those teams at the back end of the wild-card standings — the Chargers, Broncos or Ravens — were to slip up, I think Indy is the strongest candidate to catch them. Quarterback Anthony Richardson has responded to his benching well and demonstrated tangible progress. The Colts are an extremely well-coached team that nearly made the playoffs last season with Gardner Minshew at quarterback.

It’s tough to see the Colts catching Houston in the division, because the Texans are two games ahead and have already beaten them twice and therefore have the tiebreaker, but the Colts could profit if the current wild-card teams have a rough patch. They’ll come back from their Week 14 bye for a potentially huge Week 15 game in Denver. If the Colts can get a win there, then it’s Titans, Giants, Jaguars to finish the season.

Fowler: Good call. And while the Colts’ backend schedule is manageable, the Texans’ slate is more challenging, with the Chiefs and Ravens in Weeks 16 and 17. So I don’t think the AFC South is completely out of play, especially because Houston will be without linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, who will serve a three-game suspension for his hit on Trevor Lawrence on Sunday.

Part of the reason I believe the Colts turned to Joe Flacco for a two-week stretch in early November is they saw Houston as gettable. And now that Richardson is back and playing well, the Texans’ two-game lead is not insurmountable, based on the recent eye test for both teams and their upcoming schedules.

What is the most interesting thing you’ve heard in the early parts of the coaching carousel conversation?

Fowler: This is the time of year when people are trying to figure out which rumors are true and which surprise job will open. For example, I’ve had multiple coaches in the league text me this week about the Bengals job, wondering if Zac Taylor is on the hot seat. Not sure I see that, given some of the goodwill Taylor has built up there and owner Mike Brown’s propensity for cost control (Taylor has two more years left on his deal). But the next month will be about deciphering what’s real and what’s not. And perhaps Taylor will make staff changes there.

I’m also hearing mixed reviews on whether the Bears job will end up being the most coveted, as team president Kevin Warren said it would be. On the surface, he has an argument — the Bears are well stocked with intriguing talent, including a quarterback of the future, and have a healthy cap outlook. But this is also a franchise that has had a lot of turmoil at the top over the past two decades, so prime candidates will inevitably have questions about the power setup between Warren and general manager Ryan Poles and how all of it affects the head coach. (Early returns are that Warren has fully trusted Poles since the two have been together.)

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Is the Bears’ head-coaching vacancy a desirable job?

Dan Graziano, Jeff Saturday and Domonique Foxworth discuss whether the Bears’ job will attract top candidates.

Graziano: If you’re trying to assess the validity of Warren’s claim, you have to ask, “If that job isn’t going to be the most coveted, which one will be?” I think candidates will be interested in the idea of Caleb Williams and of potentially winning big in a market like Chicago, where kids still dress as Mike Ditka on Halloween. I’m also curious about the buzz in Chicago around Kliff Kingsbury if the Bears can’t get Detroit OC Ben Johnson. Kingsbury’s success with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels in Washington this season is a point in his favor, and he worked with Williams at USC last season. You think that’s a legitimate possibility?

Fowler: I suspect Kingsbury will be a candidate in Chicago, which might be his best chance. The Bears already have intel on him after interviewing him twice to be their offensive coordinator in January. But Chicago will interview many candidates and undergo a thorough process, so it’s early to say what kind of player he’ll be for that job.

A far as jobs that could be more attractive than what the Bears offer, perhaps Jacksonville is the answer. Should the Jaguars’ head-coaching and general manager jobs open at season’s end, that could be a better place to go, thanks to a weaker division, a long-term quarterback in place and the chance to build something from the ground up.

Graziano: Dallas, if it moves on from Mike McCarthy, might be a better spot because the Cowboys also have a quarterback in place. Perhaps Miami if it decides to move on from Mike McDaniel? But neither of those rosters is in demonstrably better shape than Chicago’s unit. Let’s face it, the truly perfect jobs don’t generally come open. I’m sure every candidate would love to coach the Chiefs or the Lions, but those spots aren’t available any time soon.

But let’s say the Cowboys move on, are you expecting Eagles offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to get a look there? Or is that too obvious?

Fowler: Moore has certainly helped himself while coaching the Eagles’ offense this season. I could see him getting a look in Dallas and other places. The carousel pool is full of offensive candidates, though there’s room for a sleeper, such as Tampa Bay’s Liam Coen or Arizona’s Drew Petzing, to make an impression. We saw that last year with Dave Canales surging late to land the Carolina job.

There are also plenty of established options. Houston’s Bobby Slowik gained traction last cycle. Baltimore’s Todd Monken and Buffalo’s Joe Brady have been fixtures on the interview circuit and could enhance their profiles in the playoffs, while Kansas City’s Matt Nagy and Pittsburgh’s Arthur Smith are ex-head coaches who have thrived in their current roles.

I’m fascinated with Brian Flores. He has turned Minnesota’s defense into a force, his players support him and he has taken steps behind the scenes so that he’s ready for his second chance (the NFL was very impressed in Flores’ leadership in helping younger coaches during last offseason’s accelerator program, for example). But his discrimination lawsuit against the NFL can’t exactly be dropped as far as I know (he’s not the only plaintiff on the class-action suit). And whether fair or not, Tua Tagovailoa‘s bashing of Flores is still fresh in peoples’ minds. What’s the best fit for him, Dan?

Graziano: It’s tough to say with Flores, because of that lawsuit. I know the Giants liked him a lot when they hired Brian Daboll three years ago, but the extent to which the Giants’ process was implicated in the lawsuit rubbed that organization the wrong way, so I wonder whether those fences could be mended.

Would the Jets take a look at Flores, since a stronger hand might appeal to ownership? Would he appeal to the Bears, who’d be weakening a division rival if he could sell them on his ability to bring in the right offensive coordinator for Williams? I think Flores is a good and interesting candidate on several levels, but you’re right. The questions surrounding him are very specific and could be tough obstacles for him to overcome in this cycle.

Fowler: One more name here to close: Mike Vrabel’s candidacy seems very real. I’ve talked to people who think he should get a head-coaching job and could be as high as No. 2 in the pecking order behind Ben Johnson.

Get out your crystal ball: Will Aaron Rodgers start for the Jets next season?

Graziano: He just turned 41 on Monday. On the morning of his birthday, he ranked 25th in the NFL among qualifying quarterbacks in QBR, right behind Anthony Richardson and just ahead of Daniel Jones. He didn’t play in 2023. He didn’t play well in 2022. He has been downright awful in 2024. A head coach and a GM have lost their jobs because they tied themselves to him and built the entire team around the idea that Rodgers would be the difference. He has been the difference, but completely opposite of what they expected and hoped. The team is terrible. The team culture is either terrible or nonexistent.

I still wouldn’t be surprised to see the Jets bench him or move on before the end of this season. I’ll eat one of my socks if Rodgers is starting for the Jets next season.

Fowler: That scenario kind of makes me want to see Rodgers go on a tear and win the job for 2025, Dan, but I think your laundry will stay in the washer. The ingredients for a parting — poor play, age, team in transition, an escapable contract — are all there. I’ll leave some wiggle room if the Jets hire a head coach who has an affinity for Rodgers or likes him over a draft-and-develop situation or bridge free agent alternatives. But 2025 seems like such a natural pivot point and, well, the Jets can do better.

I’ll do you one better than the 2024 QBR stat you mentioned, Dan. Rodgers is 30th in QBR since 2022, just ahead of Mac Jones. This begs the question: Is there a logical home for Rodgers next season? That $35 million option bonus, due by Week 1, isn’t a selling point, though that could be reworked.

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Rodgers uncertain what the Jets will look like next season

Aaron Rodgers tells Pat McAfee the importance of finishing the season strong since there are no guarantees of having a spot on the Jets next year.

Graziano: The fact that the option decision is due by Week 1 of the 2025 regular season is one of my favorite Rodgers contract quirks. This happened with his last Green Bay contract, too. Rodgers does back up the idea that he goes into each offseason (potentially deep into the offseason) with an open mind about whether he wants to keep playing or retire. The structure leaves the team a lot of flexibility with its other offseason decisions, including at quarterback. And when he got to the Jets, Rodgers was more than willing to adjust his contract and even take a pay cut to help the team.

All that said, who does he make better? What is the reason to sign him? Who could ignore the fact that the Packers moved on when he was a year removed from back-to-back MVP seasons and that he has completely tanked the entire Jets franchise in two years?

Fowler: That’s especially true considering several young quarterbacks have changed their trajectories. Carolina’s Bryce Young, Indianapolis’ Richardson and Tennessee’s Will Levis are all making compelling cases to start in 2025. The leaguewide need at the game’s most important position seems decidedly less intense than it did a year ago. The Giants appear ready to try anything, and Rodgers wouldn’t have to change his driver’s license to play for them, though the draft seems like the sensible path. Same with the Raiders, who have a sizable hole.

Something else to consider — the alternatives to Rodgers might not excite Jets fans. The Jets currently project to pick anywhere from No. 5 to No. 7 in the 2025 NFL draft. That’s high enough to find a capable passer, even in a weaker draft at the position. Otherwise, we’re recycling the same free agent names we’ve discussed in previous weeks — Sam Darnold, Justin Fields, Jameis Winston and others.

Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs have been great free agent adds. But what are people around the league saying about the 2025 RB market?

Fowler: That it’s not as touted as the 2024 class, which featured three top-10 backs still in their primes. Barkley, Henry and Jacobs rank first, second and third in rushing during a season when offenses have leaned into the running game, so it’s unrealistic to ask the 2025 class to duplicate it. And one of the best RBs expected to be on the market, Arizona’s James Conner, just signed a two-year, $19 million extension. Perhaps the biggest name in the class, the Vikings’ Aaron Jones, just turned 30.

One player who has really helped himself is Pittsburgh’s Najee Harris. He’s on pace for nearly 1,200 rushing yards, which would be a career high, and is about to eclipse 1,000 yards for the fourth time in his four seasons. None of his current peers have accomplished that feat. Yes, open-field speed is an issue, but he can dictate the pace in the right offense. Also, the Chargers’ J.K. Dobbins showed he’s an explosive 1,000-yard back when healthy, but he’s hurt once again.

Graziano: Like Conner, Carolina’s Chuba Hubbard is an intriguing player who recently signed a contract extension that took him off the market. So yeah, this is a thin-looking group. I still think last offseason was an outlier, as need lined up with star power and teams decided the RB market had cratered to an unreasonable point. Both Steelers backs — Harris and Jaylen Warren — will be interesting free agents, though the success they’re having in Arthur Smith’s offense makes you wonder if they both might want to stay in Pittsburgh (depending on price, of course). Warren will be a restricted free agent, too, so it might be tougher for him to cash in.

The Broncos’ Javonte Williams doesn’t turn 25 until April, and he could do better than expected on the market because of his age. If Rico Dowdle finishes strong in Dallas, he could be a player to watch at age 26 and with a lot of tread left on his tires. And there are some part-time players — such as the Colts’ Trey Sermon, Eagles’ Kenneth Gainwell and Bengals’ Khalil Herbert — who could market themselves as capable of larger roles. But as you said, this RB class doesn’t have the same star power as the 2024 class, which likely means less money being spent.

Fowler: Also, the 2026 running back class is loaded with young stars. Buffalo’s James Cook, Seattle’s Kenneth Walker III, the Jets’ Breece Hall, Jacksonville’s Travis Etienne Jr., Washington’s Brian Robinson Jr., the Rams’ Kyren Williams and Kansas City’s Isiah Pacheco are all due to hit free agency in March 2026. Many of these players have either been top-10 running backs or have made a case to be one. That’s why RB spending this offseason might come in the form of extending players in the 2026 class.

Graziano: As always, we’ll have to see which of these guys (in 2025 and 2026) don’t get an extension and actually make it to free agency. The 2024 class looks like it could be an anomaly, and the teams that spent to get Barkley, Jacobs, Henry and Joe Mixon (via trade) have reaped the benefits. It’s hard to see next year’s group having the same level of impact.

What’s your top fantasy football tip of the week?

Graziano: Stick with Titans receiver Calvin Ridley. It has to happen for him in a big way at some point soon, and this could be the week against a very vulnerable Jaguars defense. Ridley is still getting the looks from Will Levis, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine‘s touchdown luck will run out at some point. One of these weeks, his long touchdowns are going to land in Ridley’s hands.

Fowler: Jaguars receiver Parker Washington is a tempting WR2 or FLEX option. Washington had six catches for 103 yards and a touchdown on 12 targets Sunday vs. Houston. Is that repeatable? Maybe not, but expect 2-10 Jacksonville to feature younger talent. And if quarterback Mac Jones continues to play for the injured Trevor Lawrence, Washington is a reliable target when Brian Thomas Jr. or Evan Engram draw double teams.

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Parker Washington’s Week 13 fantasy recap

Check out some stats behind Parker Washington’s stellar Week 13 fantasy performance.

What else are you hearing this week?

Fowler’s notes:

• Bryce Young’s resurgence gives the Panthers an intriguing quarterback option for the future under coach Dave Canales. We know he’s throwing the ball with more confidence and operating the offense well. After asking around, he’s also learning how to become more vocal and showing more command and urgency. The Panthers always knew Young could read defenses pre-snap well, and now he’s doing a better job of projecting that out to teammates and coaches, “getting it out of his brain and to others” in a clear and concise manner, according to one person with the team. That’s a big step, and one that Andy Dalton undoubtedly helped him find. Learning from Dalton, who started in place of Young for five games during Young’s benching, was crucial for the second-year quarterback’s development, sources said. The Panthers wanted Young to observe and learn from Dalton, which he did.

• The early belief among league insiders is that Mickey Loomis has a good chance to remain as Saints general manager. That’s not 100%, but that’s what people in the know on these sorts of things are predicting. The Saints have traditionally valued connectivity/familiarity, which could be a factor in the interview process. Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn, a Saints defensive backs coach from 2016 to 2020, is expected to get a look in New Orleans. Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady, a Saints offensive assistant from 2017 to 2018 and the LSU offensive coordinator when Joe Burrow led the Tigers to a national championship, is a logical name as well. And an intriguing candidate would be Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, who is from the New Orleans area. The Saints will likely cast the proverbial wide net, but I think their tendency toward familiarity is noteworthy.

• The Broncos missed corner Riley Moss (MCL) on Monday night. I was told he’ll likely miss “a couple of weeks” because of the right knee injury. Perhaps he can rehab in time for a post-bye return against the Colts in Week 15. Also in the AFC West, Chargers linebacker Denzel Perryman (groin) is hopeful to return this week after missing two weeks.

• Jets corner Sauce Gardner‘s status is up in the air this week because of a hamstring injury, I’m told. The Jets will monitor him and see how the injury responds late in the week. Gardner has missed one game in his three-year career and is coming off one of his best games of the season. But with the Jets at 3-9, don’t be surprised if they rest key players who aren’t 100%.

• That Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith conveyed his happiness in Pittsburgh despite having talks with North Carolina, his alma mater, about its recently opened job suggests his chances to become an NFL head coach might be pretty good. From what I heard, the Tar Heels were high on Smith, who was considered the prime target. This makes me think that his stint in Atlanta will be viewed favorably in the next year or two as the NFL carousel spins. Smith won 21 games in three seasons with four different starting quarterbacks — none of whom are starters right now.

Graziano’s notes:

• Some leftover notes from Buffalo after I covered their Sunday night win that clinched their fifth straight AFC East title. Offensive players point to simple, but effective, changes to their game-week processes since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator midway through last season. Yes, they’ve leaned harder into the run game, which has helped Josh Allen and the offense transition through wide receiver turnover. But offensive lineman Connor McGovern told me he thinks one of the big keys was last season’s decision to involve the running backs in the offensive line meetings. That went so well that Allen started attending the OL meetings this season. “It’s just made everything so much smoother on game day,” McGovern said. “Even the tight ends, they know what we’re thinking instead of trying to guess or remember. The tackles can point out to the wide receivers when they have to crack-block or whatever. Everything’s just smoother, working together really well.”

• Bills players I spoke to last week talked about the increase in Allen’s leadership in this offense and how he has taken ownership of that role on a team in transition. Players in the locker room say Allen is more involved than ever in making sure he’s attentive to what players want and what kinds of plays and routes the receivers and tight ends like the most. That includes connecting with the defensive players on a personal level to a greater extent than he had before. Again, this isn’t something Bills players and coaches thought was lacking, but the sense is that Allen believed he needed to do more this season as the team lost longtime veteran leaders on both sides of the ball, and they’re impressed with the way he has executed it.

• McGovern also said he believes veteran wide receiver Amari Cooper has helped the offense since the team acquired him from Cleveland before the trade deadline even though his numbers have not been flashy. “He really frees guys up. You might see a game where you look and he only has like two catches, but he’s getting other guys open just by the way he runs his routes and the attention he attracts,” McGovern said. “He’s done so much for this offense, on the field and also in terms of the way he leads, guys are learning a lot from him in that room.”

• One of (many) questions hanging over the 49ers as this season increasingly appears lost to a ridiculous run of injuries is the Brock Purdy contract situation. Purdy is eligible for an extension for the first time this offseason, and the team must figure out his place in the quarterback contract firmament. A few months ago, when the Niners looked like the favorites to win the NFC again, you might have thought Purdy was in line for a top-of-market extension along the lines of Dak Prescott or Joe Burrow. And he still might be. But the Niners have a lot of tough questions to answer about the future of their roster and some of the larger veteran contracts they have on the books. Purdy is signed through 2025, so it’s not essential that they extend him next offseason. But him heading into the final season of his deal without an extension brings a lot of uncertainty about the future for everyone involved with the franchise. Purdy is the quarterback the 49ers pulled out of their hat when Trey Lance didn’t work out. Would they trust themselves to do it again? Or is extending Purdy at a big-money level a foregone conclusion?