If you haven’t seen the Saquon Barkley highlight from every angle, you owe it to yourself to check it out again and again. It’s the play of the year, with all apologies to Garrett Wilson. Not only did Barkley have eyes in the back of his head that can see through polycarbonate, but he hit a backwards hurdle button that is not even available on video games.

THE 180 HURDLE??? DID SAQUON JUST INVENT THIS?!

📺: #JAXvsPHI on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/tYThjnbdgG

— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2024

It’s a play that can even vault an MVP campaign (I know, running backs aren’t allowed to win). Lamar Jackson would have to come back to Earth, starting Thursday night against the Cincinnati Bengals, but … he has done that before. And even still, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and even Russell Wilson might get more love than Barkley.

Last week, Barkley generated more rushing yards than expected on 55.6 percent of his carries, his highest rate in a game in the last two seasons, per Zebra Technologies. It also marked Barkley’s fifth game with 100-plus rushing yards this season, the first time in his career in which he’s had five in the first eight games of a season.

We have no such vision in the back of our head, or in the front, as we continue to get trucked by some tough losses (and yeah, a few bad picks). Tua Tagovailoa made an incredible fourth-down play to cost us a best bet, and Joe Flacco apparently doesn’t play well at night because he is 70 years old.

We’re pretty confident this week, even though we are going against Barkley.

Last week’s record: 5-10 against the spread, 2-3 on best bets.

Season record: 47-75-2 against the spread, 15-23-2 on best bets.

All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.

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The Bengals should have won the first meeting in Week 5 but allowed the Ravens to come from a 10-point deficit in the final nine minutes. Burrow has brought them back to the brink of relevance again and is on pace for 4,239 yards passing, 38 touchdown passes, and seven interceptions with a 70 percent completion rate. Only one other quarterback has ever done all that — Aaron Rodgers when he won MVP in 2020. Of course, Jackson is also playing at an absurd level. He has the sixth-highest passer rating through Weeks 9 in the past 25 seasons with a 120.7 mark. The Bengals stacked the box against Derrick Henry last month and Jackson still lit them up for 41 points. Take the defense that seems to have improved since then.

The pick: Ravens 

Quick, name the Panthers’ top receivers. If you said Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker, you obviously cheated and looked it up. Now, we all know the Panthers stink, but they are coming off a win and seeing the Giants favored by 6 over anybody is jarring. The Giants can’t stop the run and Chuba Hubbard is no joke. Of course, the Giants may not fear Bryce Young, Leggete and Coker much and may just form a wall at the line of scrimmage. And the Giants should be able to score, as the Panthers’ league-worst pressure rate figures to mean a lot fewer high and hurried Daniel Jones passes. Jones has been victimized by a league-high 23 dropped passes, the most in the NFL through nine weeks in the past six seasons. Tyrone Tracy Jr. should also run wild.

The pick: Giants 

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The Bears have three receivers in the top 10 … for highest inaccurate target rates for players with 25-plus targets. Rome Odunze (22.7 percent) is sixth, Keenan Allen (21.4) is eighth and DJ Moore (20.0) is 10th. Yikes. Part of the issue has been Caleb Williams being constantly harassed by pass rushers. Luckily for him, the Patriots often decline that option. The Patriots rank 30th in EPA per pass at -0.16 and 28th in pressure percentage at 29.6 percent. They also can’t stop the run. On the other side of the ball, Rhamondre Stevenson has had a resurgence of late, but Drake Maye won’t have time to do much besides hand him the ball. The Bears’ pass rush against a leaky Patriots offensive line is the biggest mismatch in this game. The Bears rank first in EPA per pass (0.18), second in EPA per play (0.14) and third in opposing passer rating (77.2). This is a great bounce-back spot after not showing up against the Cardinals.

The pick: Bears 

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The Bills are coming off a highly-charged win over the Dolphins and have the Chiefs on deck. This would be a tasty sandwich spot for the Colts if you can somehow forget how bad Flacco was last week. … (Closes eyes. Hums.) Done. Besides Flacco, running back Jonathan Taylor will have an easier time going against the Bills than the Vikings. The Bills really have trouble with backs who contribute in the passing game, which Taylor can do. Flacco should also be able to hit Josh Downs, who ranks ninth in separation — averaging 3.34 yards of space. We like this pick less if Amari Cooper returns for the Bills, but we think the Colts defense can contain Josh Allen and keep this one close.

The pick: Colts 

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The Jaguars almost came through for us in our upset special and have covered three in a row somehow. Despite injuries to the wide receiver position, Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville have been better of late. The Jaguars rank 10th in the last five weeks in scoring at 27 points per game. (They averaged 15 through the first four weeks.) Their defense has not matched the effort, giving up 28.6 points in the last five weeks. Everybody hates facing the Vikings’ blitzes, but Lawrence is 47-of-73 for 545 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions when blitzed. He was limited in practice Wednesday with a shoulder injury, but won’t miss a chance to catch the Vikings in a flat spot, coming off a win on national television. Take the points.

The pick: Jaguars 

Trevor Lawrence fared well against opposing teams’ blitzes. (Bill Streicher / Imagn Images)

Last week’s Ravens pick over Bo Nix and the Broncos was our favorite of the season so far, and the Chiefs actually have a much better defense than the Ravens. Nix is tough, can run and catch but he can’t throw. But Sean Payton doesn’t have anything else. Nix’s 339 dropbacks are the fifth most of any rookie QB (90 qualified) through Week 9 in the last 25 seasons. His total QB EPA (-42.9) ranks 82nd among the rookies and 33rd among 35 QBs in 2024. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are undefeated and Patrick Mahomes finally had a good passing game, DeAndre Hopkins was a perfect acquisition and Xavier Worthy will be great if he ever realizes how fast he is and to watch out for the sideline. The Broncos have been overrated defensively and can also be run against. Kareem Hunt ranks fifth in EPA per carry (minimum 100 touches) at 0.03. Only Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, Brian Robinson Jr. and Saquon Barkley rank ahead of Hunt. I can’t remember the last time the Chiefs covered as big favorites, but they should relish an opportunity to put the Broncos in their place.

The pick: Broncos 

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Ah, the ol’ interim coach bump. Dennis Allen was fired — for the second time in his career in the middle of the season with Derek Carr as his quarterback — and the Saints get a rivalry game. More healthy players would help, sure, but Carr should be fine as the Falcons don’t get a lot of pressure. The Falcons won the first matchup this year on a last-second field goal. Alvin Kamara had 119 yards rushing and receiving in that one, so the Saints should be able to hang around again. (Kamara has the most touches in the NFL with 196 and is on pace to fly by his career high of 287 touches in 2021.) Editor’s note: Vic is never right on Falcons games.

The pick: Saints 

Christian McCaffrey is back, through we’ll see if he is cleared to play this week or wait another game. The difference without him has been glaring, as the 49ers went from best in red-zone scoring with him last season to fifth worst without him. The rest of the crew is rested after having a bye week, and Deebo Samuel Sr., Jauan Jennings and George Kittle should feast against a Buccaneers defense that ranks 30th in total defense and 28th in scoring and is coming off an overtime game on the road on a short week. Baker Mayfield will be game, even without his two top receivers, but it’s hard to see him keeping up with Brock Purdy in this one. The 49ers are 4-0 when they score 30 points and 0-4 when they don’t. The Buccaneers have given up an average of 33 points in the last five games.

The pick: 49ers 

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This might be the game of the week, with two teams that have made all the right moves this year and then made trades this week to show they are going for it. The Commanders hit a home run adding Marshon Lattimore to their defense, while the Steelers hit a solid double with much-needed receiver Mike Williams. He and Aaron Rodgers never really hit it off, and … that’s understandable. The Commanders should be able to get pressure on Russell Wilson, but will have trouble stopping Najee Harris. Washington ranks 30th in total rush EPA (-7.73). The Steelers will also be able to get after Jayden Daniels, who has been playing with sore ribs. T.J. Watt will try and test those. He ranks No. 1 in the league in defensive production rating (68.25) among all defenders and is tied for the league lead in splash plays (29) with Khalil Mack. I have no idea about this one so give me the points.

The pick: Steelers 

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It’s probably safe to say that the Raiders should have at least called Jim Harbaugh before hiring Antonio Pierce for the full-time coaching job. Harbaugh brings out the best in his players and is adaptable, and after starting out very conservative, the Chargers are opening things up. They are second in the NFL passing plays of 20 or more yards (19) since their Week 5 bye. (They only had six of those in the first four games, second-worst in the league.) It helps when your quarterback is Justin Herbert. He has now gone six games without an interception. The Titans have a banged-up secondary and will have trouble chasing down Quentin Johnston. Offensively, they won’t be able to run the ball against the Chargers and … they couldn’t even cover the spread at home against the lowly Patriots so they are dead to me.

The pick: Chargers 

Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert are hitting their stride together with the Chargers. (Ken Blaze / Imagn Images)

You gotta love the Jets. They put up some points late to beat the Texans and suddenly they are back, they tell everyone. And yet … they are a 3-6 team with 3-6 problems: Leaky offensive line, a quarterback with cement shoes and a defense that can’t stop the run. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have won three games in a row and James Conner and company just trampled the Bears. Plus, they are better coached. The Cardinals commit the fewest penalty at 4.6 accepted infractions per game, while the Jets rank 31st at 8.0. New York leads in the NFL with 31 accepted defensive penalties. Yellow flags lead to a white one for the Jets’ season.

The pick: Cardinals 

The Eagles have won four in a row since their bye week and get to feast on the Cowboys, who will be without Dak Prescott and likely CeeDee Lamb. This puts a lot of pressure on backup quarterback Cooper Rush — but luckily Rush is 5-1 straight up and 5-1 against the spread as a starter. Yeah, that’s right. The Cowboys are the play. Nick Sirianni is doing a terrible job coaching the Eagles, and players are starting to openly complain about it. They should have blown out the Jaguars last week, but blew a big lead and only won because Trevor Lawrence threw a ridiculous interception on first down when the Jaguars were driving in for the winning score. Granted, we are asking a lot of Micah Parsons in his return. The Cowboys have the worst red zone efficiency defense, allowing touchdowns on 76.9 percent of opponents’ trips inside the 20. Did we mention that Siranni and the Eagles will be looking ahead to a game against the Commanders in four days?

The pick: Cowboys 

The Lions are on a serious roll. Apparently all teams should lose their best pass rusher. They have outscored teams by an average of 18 points during their six-game winning streak. The Texans might be game for a close one at home and I like their speed on defense, but there are two issues. Their offensive line is atrocious (and it’s had an effect on C.J. Stroud) and Nico Collins hasn’t been cleared yet for his return from a hamstring injury. People still don’t realize how special Collins is and I don’t think the Texans can hang close in thois one without him. The Lions will be able to run the ball because that’s what they do, and the Texans aren’t that great at getting in the way. Jahmyr Gibbs’ EPA per carry of 0.27 is twice as much as No. 2 Derrick Henry’s 0.13 rate and is the best in the NFL this century. While the Texans lead the NFL in “havoc rate” at 28.6 percent, they are 30th in red zone efficiency (69.6 percent) and fourth down conversion rate (75.0 percent).

The pick: Lions 

Puka Nacua got ejected for throwing a punch, and the Rams still came back to beat the Seahawks last week. The Rams may be feeding off that crazy Sean McVay energy and feel they are on the verge of making some noise after winning three straight. The Dolphins haven’t done anything this season to show they can slow down the likes of Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams. And Matthew Stafford should have time to operate, thanks to an injured Dolphins defensive front. Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa has held up since coming back from his latest concussion and is letting it rip like always. He ranks fourth in the league in EPA per dropback (0.40) and first in tight window completion percentage (52.6 percent). The Rams are a little soft in the middle defensively, but their young pass rush will give Tagovailoa some problems.

The pick: Rams

Best bets: The Ravens make Joe Burrow even crankier while the Giants and Bears beat up on the Panthers and Patriots. respectively. Joe Flacco has some oatmeal and the Colts turn the Bills into mush, while the Chiefs finally get a blowout win, over the Bo Nixes.

Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): Cooper Rush and Micah Parsons, baby. Cowboys (plus-7.5) shock the Eagles and the world.

— TruMedia research courtesy of The Athletic’s Larry Holder. 

(Top photo of Saquon Barkley: Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)