With the Dallas Cowboys trending toward missing the playoffs this season, a coaching change is starting to feel like an inevitability.

According to ESPN’s Dan Graziano, it would “surprise a lot of people” if the Cowboys were to bring back head coach Mike McCarthy, whose contract is set to expire at the conclusion of the 2024 season.

McCarthy is in the midst of his fifth season as head coach of the Cowboys, and while they entered 2024 having made three consecutive playoff appearances, a fourth straight trip to the postseason is unlikely amid a 3-6 start.

After a 13-year stint as head coach of the Green Bay Packers that saw McCarthy go 125-77-2 and win a Super Bowl, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones hired him to replace Jason Garrett in 2020.

Dallas went just 6-10 in McCarthy’s first season at the helm, but the next three campaigns were much more successful with the Cowboys posting records of 12-5 each year and winning two NFC East titles during that stretch.

Thanks in part to McCarthy’s offensive acumen, CeeDee Lamb blossomed into one of the NFL’s best wide receivers and quarterback Dak Prescott had the best statistical season of his career in 2023, finishing second in the NFL MVP voting.

Despite the regular-season success and accolades, the playoffs have proven to be a different animal with Dallas going just 1-3 in postseason play under McCarthy.

The most embarrassing loss among them was Dallas falling 48-32 at home to the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Wild Card Round last season despite being the No. 2 seed.

There was plenty of speculation that McCarthy’s tenure as head coach would not survive that defeat, but Jones made the somewhat surprising decision to bring him back as a lame-duck coach for 2024.

The Cowboys did very little in terms of personnel moves outside of the draft, opting to largely run it back and get different results.

Instead, Dallas got off to an uneven 3-3 start before dropping each of its past three contests against the San Francisco 49ers, Atlanta Falcons and Philadelphia Eagles.

To make matters worse, Prescott was lost for the season against Atlanta due to a hamstring injury that requires surgery, meaning backup Cooper Rush is in line to start for the rest of the campaign.

The Cowboys already faced an uphill climb in terms of reaching the playoffs, but with Prescott out of the equation, there doesn’t seem to be much hope that they can turn things around, especially after a 34-6 home loss to Philly last week.

Even a playoff appearance may not have saved McCarthy’s job without a deep run, so if Dallas misses out on the playoffs completely as expected, it seems like a near certainty that America’s Team will be in the market for a new head coach.