Welcome to the third week of the NFL. While it’s not yet clear if your favorite team is great, it’s definitely clear whether or not your favorite team is fun. And I would argue that it’s better to be fun than great. When you become great, you just become a Chiefs fan, ignoring your budding young family to argue with internet trolls about the favorability of officiating in your games. Or like Patriots fans, not spending time with aging grandparents as they research the ideal gas law to disprove a deflation scenario.
Fun is being a Colts fan right now and knowing that, at any moment, Anthony Richardson could do something you’ve never seen before. It’s like living on a planet where comets narrowly swing by humanity on a regular basis. Fun is being a Packers fan and watching Malik Willis do what the genetic gods put him on Earth to do. Fun is being a Vikings fan, winning games with Josh Dobbs last year and Sam Darnold this year, watching quarterbacks walk off the field completely blank after getting a look at Brian Flores’s defense.
Don’t trade it for anything, my friends.
Last week’s ranking: No. 1
Last week’s result: beat Atlanta, 22–17
This week: at Los Angeles Chargers
The Chiefs are not perfect, but what makes them beautiful is less about what they are doing and more what other teams believe they have to do in order to beat them. Regardless of the calls Kansas City seems to get on a consistent basis, there is a perception that they get the calls. Regardless of whether they actually have consistent top-tier weapons, there are games when they seem to. And all of this causes their opponents to act out of character and get too faux clever from time to time. Case in point, the Falcons trying a run out of the split backfield with the No. 2 running back doing the lead blocking with the game on the line Sunday night.
Last week’s ranking: No. 2
Last week’s result: beat Jacksonville, 47–10
This week: at Baltimore
Gut check time for Buffalo. While the Cardinals win was a quality W, the Jacksonville and Miami games rounded out the MAC portion of their schedule (which, if you’re a Notre Dame fan like me, is still a horrifying roller coaster). Taking care of the hapless Jaguars puts them in a solid position for three straight road games against the Ravens, Texans and Jets.
Last week’s ranking: No. 5
Last week’s result: beat Tennessee, 30–14
This week: vs. Minnesota
The Packers are quite possibly the most exciting team in the NFL on a week-to-week basis, even without the services of their starting quarterback (and, maybe, especially because of what has happened absent their starting quarterback?) Over the last two weeks, the Packers have run for 449 yards against the Colts and Titans. They may not be able to pull one over on Brian Flores, who, like Matt LaFleur, is on an incredible hot streak, but this game is absolute must-watch television if you love actual football.
Last week’s ranking: No. 3
Last week’s result: beat Arizona, 20–13
This week: vs. Seattle
Through three weeks, the Lions have looked alternately fierce and surprisingly beatable. I wonder what would have happened if Jared Goff’s pick six would not have been blown dead. Having watched it numerous times, the ball is clearly in motion before the two minute warning and I think Cardinals fans have some grounds for a grievance. If you want answers directly from the officiating crew, here’s a pool report. While I can see the crew’s point—the first time I watched it I wondered what everyone was complaining about because I thought I saw the clock hit zero before the snap—a second review clearly shows a second still on the clock. Human error is fun when there’s not so much gambling involved!
Last week’s ranking: No. 9
Last week’s result: beat Houston, 34–7
This week: at Green Bay
What has been masterful about Brian Flores’s defensive performances to me is that, like some of the other Bill Belichick disciples who have left New England only to commit the same sins—loading up on former Patriots, paying them big money and trying to run the same defense—Flores has loaded up on former Dolphins and Patriots. However, he has taken those players and plugged them into a whirlwind defensively that is zigging while the rest of the NFL is sitting in Cover 2 and praying for no big plays (sorry gang, Andy Dalton is back and that’s not gonna happen). While it’s harder to maintain a great offense than a great defense, and at some point the referees and the league will step in to goose scoring, we need to take note of how wonderful and maddening this defense has been over the course of three games.
Last week’s ranking: No. 11
Last week’s result: beat Los Angeles Chargers, 20–10
This week: at Indianapolis
More on Justin Fields here, but the long and short of the situation is this: Pittsburgh has won three straight games, largely with Fields acting as a pocket passer. In the Atlanta game Week 1, he ran 14 times but since that moment, Pittsburgh has gotten just 14 carries and 33 yards out of one of the NFL’s most dynamic athletes. I love—love—that the Steelers have been calling it for Fields to win in the pocket, especially before the half and at the end of Sunday’s game against the Chargers. Now, let us marry the run and the pass and truly unleash on the rest of the NFL.
Last week’s ranking: No. 16
Last week’s result: beat New England, 24–3
This week: vs. Denver
Too high? Possibly. The Vikings game in London two weeks from now is the one we’re looking at, overlooking the poor upstart Denver Broncos like some sort of wallflower. I predicted a Broncos victory in the preseason All-272 just because I cannot imagine Sean Payton allowing himself to twice be beaten by a good offensive coordinator in Nathaniel Hackett, whom Payton tried to embarrass for his own self assurance and protection. Anyway, this defense is incredibly tough and pummeled New England like we expected them to. Offensively, Aaron Rodgers’s mobility has me wondering how he so ably turned back the clock and what the ceiling for this team might actually look like.
Last week’s ranking: No. 10
Last week’s result: lost to Minnesota, 34–7
This week: vs. Jacksonville
The Texans were throttled by the Vikings on Sunday. Out of the three quarterbacks who have played Flores so far this year, C.J. Stroud was not the worst (that distinction belongs to Daniel Jones) and he was definitely not the best (that distinction belongs to Brock Purdy). His -12 EPA and two interceptions were par for the course but also a needed jolt for a team that could possibly benefit from an early-season pantsing. Houston is a good team. Loaded. But it’s time to evolve.
Last week’s ranking: No. 10
Last week’s result: beat New Orleans, 15–12
This week: at Tampa Bay
The Eagles are not currently a win-because-of-QB team. I think that’s been true for a while and Jalen Hurts, while nowhere near Will Levis territory, does seem to outthink himself sometimes. That causes Nick Sirianni to follow suit. While they sort out their collective issues, thank goodness Jalen Carter is around. We don’t know ultimately how consistent Carter can be on a game-by-game basis, but his ability to destroy a game plan is incredibly useful for instilling fear in offensive coordinators everywhere.
Last week’s ranking: No. 6
Last week’s result: lost to Los Angeles Rams, 27–24
This week: vs. New England
Some more complete thoughts on Brock Purdy here, but I walked away from the 49ers-Rams showdown even more confident in this 49ers team than the week prior. This should have been a win for San Francisco; a game where Purdy should have completed more the 90% of his passes and a kind of thumbing of the nose by Kyle Shanahan, who simply plucks the next healthy receiver off his bench and calls for him the best single 60 minutes for a 49ers wideout since Jerry Rice. Have a day, Jauan Jennings.
Last week’s ranking: No. 19
Last week’s result: beat Miami, 24–3
This week: at Detroit
I am really not sure where to put this team after wins over Denver, New England (in overtime) and Miami sans Tua Tagovailoa. While this isn’t a Jigsaw chamber of fear type schedule, the NFL has been absurdly weird this year with Baltimore losing to Las Vegas and then Las Vegas falling to Carolina. So, 3–0 is 3–0 and I think it speaks to Mike Macdonald’s ability to handle the roller coaster. The Lions on Monday Night Football this coming week feel like perfect timing to get a measuring stick on where, exactly, this team is at.
Last week’s ranking: No. 14
Last week’s result: beat Dallas, 28–25
This week: vs. Buffalo
Strangely, every time the Ravens lose or almost lose, I seem to find more that I like about this team. On Sunday, that meant us finally seeing what the offense could do by riding Derrick Henry and giving him the kind of volume he normally requires to get warmed up and into the flow of a game. If Baltimore could combine their up-tempo style offense and quick game with Henry after they develop an early lead, this team could be a real AFC title game contender. As an aside, I’m very interested to see what John Harbaugh does to help Justin Tucker get his groove back. The two were clearly conversing at the end of the game, with Harbaugh trying to encourage Tucker to simply focus on the victory.
Last week’s ranking: No. 7
Last week’s result: lost to Denver, 26–7
This week: vs. Philadelphia
Too big of a penalty for a loss to the Broncos? Maybe. Or perhaps we’re just settling. I honestly think the Buccaneers are roughly the 10th-best team in the NFL when totally healthy. Against the Broncos, they didn’t have some critical players suiting up and Sean Payton took them by surprise by cutting the cord on Bo Nix. Like the Ravens, I liked what I saw from Tampa in the midst of their worst game. In the second half, they ran the ball in big spots surprisingly well. Liam Cohen didn’t abandon half the options at his disposal and put too much on Baker Mayfield.
Last week’s ranking: No. 26
Last week’s result: beat Cincinnati, 38–33
This week: at Arizona
Jayden Daniels has been meeting the moment for two straight weeks now. Above and beyond his rookie counterparts, he has put his team consistently in position to win games and is delivering clutch throws in those games to facilitate wins. While quarterbacks with more tools often find themselves further ahead earlier on in their rookie season, Daniels is blowing away the RGIII comparisons and creating his own very promising narrative in D.C.
Last week’s ranking: No. 12
Last week’s result: lost to Pittsburgh, 20–10
This week: vs. Kansas City
I have no idea where to slot this team but it was instructive to see what happens to this iteration of a Jim Harbaugh team when they’re pushed back and unable to run the ball. Just 2.9 yards per carry for J.K. Dobbins meant that some of the buffer previously afforded to Justin Herbert evaporated. Without Herbert, this team quickly becomes extremely one-dimensional. Joe Alt was also knocked out in this one and will miss next week’s game against the Chiefs. I have a feeling that, during this eventual settling period, we will see Los Angeles find its home between Nos. 16 and 19 on this list with regularity.
Last week’s ranking: No. 8
Last week’s result: lost to Philadelphia, 15–12
This week: at Atlanta
OK, so the Saints now had a game where they surrendered upfield interior penetration and didn’t stretch out the defense with a deep shot. In fact, the Saints were the first team of 2024 to not get a first down on a first-and-10. So, clearly there were some difficulties in getting ahead of this Eagles defense. What does that mean for New Orleans? Well, we’ve seen Dallas shellacked in two of their three games defensively. We’ve seen Carolina pummeled in two of their three games as well. So, did New Orleans get a fortuitous schedule or can they nip a team we’re positive will be a factor in January?
Last week’s ranking: No. 23
Last week’s result: beat San Francisco, 27–24
This week: at Chicago
This was an incredibly impressive win on Sunday that digs the Rams out of a black hole. Building adversity with this year’s team is a good table setter for the back half of the season when Cooper Kupp and, much later, Puka Nacua return to the lineup. I feel like the Rams have a deeper deck they’re dealing from than most people realize. Over these next few weeks we’ll start to meet some new stars.
Last week’s ranking: No. 18
Last week’s result: lost to Kansas City, 22–17
This week: vs. New Orleans
This Falcons team is just figuring itself out, but through three weeks, not having a top-15 unit in offensive EPA per play or defensive EPA per play allowed after hiring a defensive head coach and paying top of market for a quarterback is heading toward unacceptable. Atlanta has been in every game so far against three of the 10 best teams in the NFL, but after making full scale changes that gave off the we’re over the hump vibes, we’ll be looking at the next three divisional games under a pretty intense microscope.
Last week’s ranking: No. 15
Last week’s result: lost to Detroit, 20–13
This week: vs. Washington
As we said toward the top, I think the complexion of Sunday’s Cardinals-Lions game changes if that pick six isn’t called back. Still, Arizona played the Bills and Lions tough to start the year and throttled the Rams, which, to me, signifies that they will be in the conversation week in and week out. By the time the dust is settled in the NFC West, I expect them to be firmly in the conversation.
Last week’s ranking: No. 13
Last week’s result: lost to Washington, 38–33
This week: at Carolina
The AFC North is going to end up smushing together like a box of melted ice cream cones by the end of November, so I am not counting the Bengals out. I am calling them flat-footed and unable to meet the moment. This has been the case in a high-energy opener and again against the Commanders, where a stunning performance by Jayden Daniels. This is going to tap into what is happening at a motivational and preparation level. A real mirror-gazing moment.
Last week’s ranking: No. 29
Last week’s result: beat Cleveland, 21–15
This week: vs. Dallas
The Giants are a field goal kicker away from being 2–1 and having all of us shower Joe Schoen and Brian Daboll with praise. The results of the hard work are evident. Daniel Jones has played really good football the past two weeks and the Giants absolutely shape-shifted defensively to take advantage of the reeling Deshaun Watson. The result was a gutsy, must-have win on the road and a fresh perspective on a team that I still think can reach eight or nine wins.
Last week’s ranking: No. 17
Last week’s result: lost to Baltimore, 28–25
This week: at New York Giants
Dak Prescott has talked a lot about stepping outside of the storm and I do wonder what his thoughts on the situation are. Sure, it looks like a disaster that the Cowboys are 1–2, but coming back against Baltimore on Sunday was impressive, especially when considering that the Ravens are a team theoretically built to stomp on your neck (even though they are, of late, on the fourth quarter struggle bus when playing with a lead). I don’t think we’re near disaster territory though, as I warned at the beginning of the season, Bill Belichick has begun his public analysis of the roster and you know who is listening.
Last week’s ranking: No. 22
Last week’s result: beat Chicago, 21–16
This week: vs. Pittsburgh
Anthony Richardson is…not playing well. This is the kind of stew Indianapolis wanted to sit in when they took Richardson out of Florida and are gambling on the idea that patience will lead to something truly spectacular. And, it just might. I don’t have a problem waiting because outside of Andy Dalton, no quarterback is lighting the world on fire statistically and if Richardson can figure it out, he becomes in the class of Mahomes and Allen-type players who are Thanos-like in their power.
Last week’s ranking: No. 20
Last week’s result: lost to Indianapolis, 21–16
This week: vs. Los Angeles Rams
Getting the job to coach Caleb Williams is a great responsibility that comes with great scrutiny. Matt Eberflus is brushing up against issues with clock and timeout management. Shane Waldron is now facing scrutiny from every internet-playcalling soothsayer. The job was absolutely thankless to begin with, but in a bustling market like Chicago with high expectations, it’s going to become cutthroat in a hurry.
Last week’s ranking: No. 21
Last week’s result: lost to Seattle, 24–3
This week: vs. Tennessee
I do wonder why the Dolphins were so flat-footed when it came to the backup quarterback situation. I understand the need to keep Tua Tagovailoa confident, and certainly hindsight is 20/20, and, yes, Skylar Thompson has been in this offense. But could you really be that certain it would work out if Tagovailoa’s injury issues started creeping up again? Tennessee and New England provide two get-right opportunities before the picture begins to sharpen on Tagovailoa and his long-term availability.
Last week’s ranking: No. 27
Last week’s result: lost to New York Jets, 24–3
This week: at San Francisco
Thoroughly dominated by the Jets, we’ll see if the upstart Patriots of the first two weeks—the ones who upset the Bengals and narrowly lost to the Seahawks in overtime—can return against the wounded 49ers and Dolphins.
Last week’s ranking: No. 31
Last week’s result: beat Tampa Bay, 26–7
This week: at New York Jets
I appreciated Sean Payton’s willingness to take the ball off the coin toss and place the game on Bo Nix’s shoulders. Nix has had by far the most ruthless start for rookie quarterbacks in terms of opponents—Seattle, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, and the Jets in Week 4—and he has turned in two close losses and Sunday’s win.
Last week’s ranking: No. 24
Last week’s result: lost to New York Giants, 21–15
This week: at Las Vegas
Why are the Browns so low, you ask? Well, some teams are going to be placed higher on the power rankings by virtue of the fact that their younger players have an arrow pointing up, even if they aren’t playing perfectly at the moment. That’s better than very high profile players with arrows pointing downward. Deshaun Watson in Cleveland makes up the single biggest anchor around a team’s neck right now and, potentially in NFL history. The Giants totally revamped their seldom-blitz game plan for Watson, knowing full well that he completely short circuits under pressure. Kevin Stefanski took partial blame for the eight sacks, but I wonder how many he was watching, begging for Watson to throw the ball.
Last week’s ranking: No. 25
Last week’s result: lost to Buffalo, 47–10
This week: at Houston
Congrats to the Jaguars, the first team with a true, ticking panic meter. Like we mentioned with Caleb Williams above, Trevor Lawrence carries with him an invisible detonator that goes off when it becomes apparent that his talent is being squandered. The Jaguars should not be 0–3 by any stretch and, unfortunately for Doug Pederson, he’s going to wear that. I don’t think this is even close to Pederson’s problem and upper management should bear the responsibility for the middle class of this roster. That said, Jacksonville has passed from irrational early season overreaction into mid-season warranted reaction.
Last week’s ranking: No. 32
Last week’s result: beat Las Vegas, 36–22
This week: vs. Cincinnati
A good win for Dave Canales, who achieves multiple goals: Bryce Young has a rest and a front row seat for Andy Dalton’s preparation and play, and Canales and offensive coordinator Brad Idzik get some breathing room. Clearly, their system of patience and tailoring to the individual quarterback has carried over and maybe, hopefully, will help Young at some point too. Darnold, Geno Smith and Mayfield needed new spaces to thrive but Tagovailoa did not. Which will Young end up being?
Last week’s ranking: No. 30
Last week’s result: lost to Green Bay, 30–14
This week: at Detroit
Will Levis is getting dangerously close to the end of his rope. Brian Callahan needs to string together a handful of victories to keep this veteran team from spiraling and the Titans from being a trade deadline feeder team (which, at this point, may not be all that bad). In letting go of Mike Vrabel, the Titans were clearly looking for a hard restart. Maybe bottoming out and getting high enough in the draft order to find a QB of the future provides that in the long term.
Last week’s ranking: No. 28
Last week’s result: lost to Carolina, 36–22
This week: vs. Cleveland
I don’t mean to pick on the Raiders, but accusing your players of making business decisions publicly and then considering a QB change three games into the season when the QB is not the problem—relying on the nebulous “spark” to guide you—is the stuff of ruin. Antonio Pierce has been in more locker rooms than I, but in studying what happens to a team when it starts to spiral, these are almost always on the ingredient list.
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