Thanksgiving is right around the corner and the Super Bowl picture is starting to take shape. This is a fork-in-the-road moment of the season where contenders separate from pretenders, resulting in the NFL power rankings becoming a loss less granular.

After a bigtime win over the Cincinnati Bengals on primetime, the LA Chargers have cemented themselves as a real contender while the opposite is true for the Bengals. With a different outcome, these NFL power rankings would have been massively different.

Not every team in the NFL has a chance to win the Super Bowl. Some teams are already all-but eliminated from the playoffs. We will save you from reading about those teams, and instead brea down the teams that actually have a chance.

NFL teams who are thinking about the draft, not the Super Bowl (32-25):

With various records and different situations, these teams have all but given up on the idea of competing for a Super Bowl this season and are looking ahead to the 2025 NFL Draft instead.

While we could be more granular and rank these teams all the way from No. 32 and there on, they are all in the same boat and the difference between ranking 30 and 27 is pointless this time of year. The only thing that matters for these teams is draft position.

NFL teams with unrealistic hopes of competing for a Super Bowl:

These teams haven’t fully given up on the 2024 season even if they have every reason to. The one thing that separates these teams from the group below them is there is actually a minuscule chance of making the playoffs, although competing for a Super Bowl is far-fetched.

The Saints have a new coach in a bad division so anything is possible. New York still has Aaron Rodgers and the baseline talent to get hot (even if we all know the team won’t). The Bengals need to go 5-1 at worst to contend for a playoff spot, but have an easy enough schedule to pull it off and if they do make it, they have winning DNA that can help a playoff run.

“Don’t let us get hot” Super Bowl “contenders”:

Each of these teams are in striking distance to make the playoffs if everything goes right down the stretch. And if they make it, each fanbase will convince itself that good things will happen in the playoffs if their respective team gets hot.

The two teams atop this group are the two who have winning DNA already, even if they don’t have the best record in the group. Los Angeles is getting healthy and has already won a Super Bowl with Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay.

Miami, as bad as it has been this season, is also getting healthy and is talented enough to go on a run if the team can make it there. The Dolphins have some tough opponents down the stretch but if they can win those games and actually make the playoffs they will be one of the hottest teams in the league come January.

The true Super Bowl contenders:

13. Arizona Cardinals

Every team from here on out can win the Super Bowl this season if everything goes right. For some of these teams, it might be a bigger ask than others (hence the ranking), but it is still possible and should not be ruled out as we head into the holidays.

The Arizona Cardinals serve as the inflection point between true Super Bowl contenders and teams who think they are contenders. When he is playing at his best, Kyler Murray is someone who can take over football games and is an extremely hard quarterback to match up against in a playoff game.

Arizona winning four straight playoff games to win the Super Bowl seems far-fetched, but they absolutely could end up upsetting a team or two.

12. Washington Commanders

Rookie quarterbacks winning the Super Bowl is rather unheard of so as great as the Commanders have been this season, it is important to remember that most of those players on the roster do not have the experience required to make a Super Bowl run.

Still, Jayden Daniels has quickly emerged as one of the top quarterbacks in the sport and when you have that, you always have a chance of winning it all.

11. Minnesota Vikings

It may seem unfair to rank the Vikings this low considering the team is 10-2 and has beaten some solid opposition this season. This all goes back to the quarterback position. As surprising as Sam Darnold has been this season, he is still Sam Darnold and that is a hard quarterback to put full faith behind in January.

While 4-2 in their last six, the Vikings have proven they are not as good as a typical 8-2 team over the last six weeks. Minnesota lost to the Rams and Lions while barely edging out wins over teams like the Titans, Jaguars, Colts and Jets. With a difficult remaining schedule, expect the Vikings to come back down to Earth.

10. LA Chargers

The LA Chargers may not have as much overall talent as other teams in this tier but they have the two most important factors to win a Super Bowl: an elite head coach and an elite quarterback.

Justin Herbert is starting to heat up and the Chargers prove to be one of the best-coached teams in the league even when the bottom starts to fall out. Winning a Super Bowl in year one of Harbaugh would take perfect play (and some luck), but the Bolts are officially the team that nobody wants to see in the playoffs.

9. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have the worst quarterback of any team in this tier but they are winning games behind great coaching and an elite defense. Pittsburgh may end up being a mirage like the Vikings, or they could get hot at the right time and go on a run like the Eli Manning-led New York Giants teams.

A gutsy win over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 11 cemented the Steelers as a real Super Bowl contender, even if it does seem ludicrous that Russell Wilson may contend for another ring after the way the last few seasons went.

8. Houston Texans

Injuries are starting to catch up to the Houston Texans and that may limit how far the team can go in the playoffs. The once 5-1 Texans have lost three of their last four, and really could have won each of those games to cement themselves as the team to beat in the AFC.

A 6-4 record may not seem daunting but the Texans are a team nobody wants to see in the playoffs. DeMeco Ryans will get his team to show up in the playoffs while CJ Stroud is good enough to lead a miracle playoff run all by himself.

7. Green Bay Packers

There is another unofficial line of demarcation here. While any of the top 13 teams can win a Super Bowl, the top seven represent a true inner circle that is a notch above. It starts with the 7-3 Green Bay Packers.

Green Bay will have a longer road to making the Super Bowl assuming the Detroit Lions continue to dominate and that hurts the teams chances. But even without a bye, the Packers have one of the best head coach-quarterback combinations in the league and can beat any team in the league on any given night.

Can they do it four rounds in a row? That is the real question.

6. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers are not even in a playoff position right now so it may seem absurd to rank them this high. That is why these NFL power rankings are based on Super Bowl potential, not just on the records at this point in the year.

It has been the year from hell for the 49ers, who have dealt with more bad injury luck than anyone in the sport. However, if the 49ers can just limp their way into the playoffs after a taxing regular season then they have as good of a chance as anyone to go on a run.

It seems silly, but just think about it. The 49ers would be neutral-site favorites against any of the teams ranked below them if they were to play in a playoff game. That matters.

5. Philadelphia Eagles

Fans have been waiting for the bottom to fall out for the Philadelphia Eagles all season and it hasn’t. As flawed as this team is at its worst, the Eagles have re-emerged into the Super Bowl picture with a strong start to the 2024 season.

Philadelphia is more volatile than any other team in this grouping, though, so this could change on a week-by-week basis. While the Eagles have had several impressive wins this season, all it takes is two bad weeks in a row and the locker room starts to point fingers at each other.

With three lay-up games on the schedule, the Eagles will undoubtedly make the playoffs. Their future all depends on what mood they will enter the playoffs in.

4. Baltimore Ravens

Ugly regular-season losses aside, the Baltimore Ravens have a two-time MVP under center and one of the best coaches in the entire sport. That alone puts Baltimore on the Mount Rushmore of Super Bowl contenders this far into the 2024 season.

Unfortunately for the Ravens, despite being one of the four best teams in the league they are the third-best team in the AFC. The road through the AFC is extremely difficult., even for the top-tier contenders.

3. Kansas City Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs were the most unimpressive undefeated teams nine games into the 2024 season. While the Chiefs are undoubtedly great and are a true contender, Kansas City somehow did not have a single big win despite winning every single game.

Patrick Mahomes alone will probably lead the Chiefs to the AFC Championship game at worst, so don’t expect an early exit unless something drastically goes wrong. The real question is whether or not the Chiefs have enough gas in the tank to do what no NFL team has ever done before: win three Super Bowls in a row.

2. Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills earned the silver medal in these NFL power rankings after beating the Chiefs in Week 11. One win in November does not win you a trip to the Super Bowl but how Buffalo won sent a message to the rest of the league.

Josh Allen is firmly in the front running for his first NFL MVP award and if the Bills can stay the course then they have a real chance of usurping the Chiefs for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. If the road to New Orleans runs through Buffalo on the AFC side then the Bills may clinch their first trip to the Super Bowl since 1994.

1. Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions are the best team in football and right now, it does not seem close. No other team in the league has the ability to drop 40 points on any night while also having one of the best defenses in the entire sport.

The one worry Detroit has that no other team in this top tier has is at the quarterback position. When things are going well Jared Goff can sling it with the best of them. However, as Week 10 showed, Goff has five interception games in him and that can end a Super Bowl push.

Thankfully for Lions fans, Dan Campbell’s team has proven it can even win those games, too.