NFL playoffs: The strengths and flaws that could define each Super Bowl contender

Posted by Admin December 10, 2024 NFL

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The NFL’s dominance among fans can be traced to its parity — the belief that, even in an era when the Kansas City Chiefs have won three of the past four Super Bowls, multiple franchises can credibly foster hope that this is their year for a deep postseason run.

One month before the playoffs begin, the race to the Vince Lombardi Trophy remains wide open. The Chiefs are 12-1 but vulnerable. Top offenses have been stopped, and good defenses have shown flaws. Attrition has racked depth charts. Each conference boasts many good teams. But how many will prove to be truly great?

With four weeks left in the regular season, we take stock of the top contenders in each conference and what could propel them through the playoffs or hold them back.

AFC

Kansas City Chiefs (12-1)

Best potential playoff asset: The Chiefs are historically great at winning close games. Their walk-off win Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers was their 15th consecutive victory in one-possession games dating to last season. Patrick Mahomes has completed 70% of his passes when the Chiefs have either been tied or trailed this season, and he has been 10-for-17 passing specifically when they are either tied or trailing in the last four minutes of the fourth quarter.

Worst potential fatal flaw: They can’t keep playing with fire like this and continue getting away with it … right? Of every team that has started 12-1, the Chiefs have scraped by with a record low scoring margin. Considering how beaten up the team has been around the margins, with injuries to its kickers, its offensive line — Mahomes has already been sacked more than in any other season of his career — its receivers and its running backs, everything hinges on Mahomes, and that’s a lot, even for a future Hall of Famer.

Buffalo Bills (10-3)

Best potential playoff asset: Quarterback Josh Allen, who during the past two weeks produced stat lines never before seen in NFL history. The Bills’ biggest concern entering this season was whether there was enough talent around Allen at receiver and running back. Allen has quieted those concerns by putting together a season that could end with his earning the league’s Most Valuable Player award.

Worst potential fatal flaw: Buffalo’s run defense struggled in Sunday’s loss to the Los Angeles Rams, allowing the Rams multiple third-and-short situations. The loss was critical because it means Buffalo has a very slim probability of passing Kansas City for the conference’s top playoff seed. Buffalo’s offense has been highly effective against Kansas City in recent years, but beating the Chiefs on the road in the postseason would require exorcising some past demons.

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-3)

Best potential playoff asset: Coach Mike Tomlin has pushed all the right buttons to turn a team that was built on a rock-solid defense that leads the league in takeaways into one that is playing complementary football behind quarterback Russell Wilson. If the Steelers can win their next three games, which all come by Christmas — at Philadelphia, at Baltimore and home against Kansas City — they’ll arrive at the playoffs with momentum and proof-of-concept they can survive the postseason gantlet.

Worst potential fatal flaw: Wilson has won just one of his last five playoff games dating to 2017, and his last victory came in 2020. Tomlin also is seeking some playoff atonement, having gone winless since 2017. Can the coach and the quarterback resurrect decade-old playoff magic that helped them win Super Bowls in the past?

Houston Texans (8-5)

Best potential playoff asset: In theory, this should be one of the most difficult offenses to stop in the league. It hasn’t worked out exactly that way this season, but if quarterback C.J. Stroud and receiver Nico Collins can stretch the field as they did to start the season, it will open everything up. The Texans’ defense is top 10 in both passing and rushing yards allowed.

Worst potential fatal flaw: The offensive line has allowed Stroud to be sacked at one of the NFL’s highest rates. In addition, the Texans are allowing 13 points after halftime, which ranks in the league’s bottom third.

Baltimore Ravens (8-5)

Best potential playoff asset: Pittsburgh and Philadelphia have found ways to derail the Ravens’ offense, but with Lamar Jackson, receiver Zay Flowers and running back Derrick Henry, it is still among the very best at forcing defenses to pick their poison. Henry is averaging a full yard per carry less over his last four games than he did in his first nine, but he’s still the type of back who will demand attention from a defense.

Worst potential fatal flaw: Baltimore used to be among the league’s most dependable teams in the kicking game and defense. Now the Ravens rank near the bottom in takeaways forced and at the bottom in passing yards allowed. Among the 15 teams with winning records, the Ravens rank 14th in points allowed. Justin Tucker’s kicking accuracy remains a concern, as is the fact that the Ravens lead the NFL in penalties.

NFC

Detroit Lions (12-1)

Best potential playoff asset: This is a team whose mantra is aggression and doesn’t appear likely to fold under postseason pressure. Its offense is built on one of the league’s most physical offensive lines, which allows offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to open up his playbook and get a jump on opponents by averaging a league-high 18.1 points before halftime. Few teams feel more confident week to week, and it is manifested in coach Dan Campbell’s willingness to make bold calls; the Lions are 15-for-22 on fourth down this season. They also have made 21 of their 22 field goal attempts.

Worst potential fatal flaw: Injuries have devastated the defense, whose linemen and linebackers are almost entirely new from the projected starters who began the season. In addition, though Campbell’s risks have paid off almost all season, could his fourth-down strategy backfire in the postseason? One fewer possession per game has a bigger impact in the postseason.

Philadelphia Eagles (11-2)

Best potential playoff asset: All those preseason worries about Philadelphia’s offensive line have disappeared as the Eagles have averaged a league high in rushing yards and turned Saquon Barkley into an MVP candidate. But it’s the threat receiver A.J. Brown presents that has made the biggest difference. The Eagles are 10-0 when Brown plays.

Worst potential fatal flaw: The Eagles start games dreadfully slow on offense, averaging barely more than a point per first quarter. How effectively can they play from behind in the postseason if needed?

Minnesota Vikings (11-2)

Best potential playoff asset: Like Kansas City, Minnesota has found ways to win late, experience that can’t be discounted. Coach Kevin O’Connell has tapped into quarterback Sam Darnold’s talent like no other coach before him — Darnold has the NFL’s highest passer rating against conference opponents. Scheme is also a strength on defense, where coordinator Brian Flores remains ready to blitz whenever and wherever.

Worst potential fatal flaw: Mistakes are magnified in the postseason, and the Vikings are mistake-prone, with 19 giveaways on either interceptions or fumbles. That ranks in the league’s bottom nine. The silver lining is that Darnold hasn’t thrown an interception in his last four games.

Green Bay Packers (9-4)

Best potential playoff asset: Good teams create more opportunities, and the Packers’ 24 takeaways tie for third most this season. Offensively, they’ve protected quarterback Jordan Love remarkably well, with only one sack per game during the last month. Give Love time to throw and this Packers offense can score points as well as anybody despite the roster’s relative youth.

Worst potential fatal flaw: Love threw at least one interception in each of his first eight games but none in any of his last three. The Packers need Love’s ability to make plays to win, but forcing the issue can lead to damaging turnovers.

Washington Commanders (8-5)

Best potential playoff asset: The Commanders rarely turn the ball over, though that has slightly changed recently. And for much of the season, Washington’s pass rushers and run blockers have posted some of the NFL’s highest success rates. Good play in those two areas can be the foundation of postseason success.

Worst potential fatal flaw: Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels was a revelation when he threw only two interceptions in his first 10 games. In his last three games, however, he has thrown four picks. How effectively will opposing defenses be able to confuse a rookie in his first postseason? And can a defense that ranks in the bottom five in rushing yards allowed improve in time to make the playoffs?